Based on their respective records this might sound crazy. Brady has three rings, five total Super Bowl appearances, and a record 17 playoff victories. Manning on the other hand: a below .500 playoff record, just one Super Bowl ring, and a record eight “one-and-outs”. How could anybody in their right mind choose the latter over the former? It’s amazing what a little perspective can do. Let’s start from the beginning.
(If you haven’t read the first three parts of this series, they introduce and explain all of the concepts used here: Part I, Part II, and Part III.)
Manning v Brady: Regular Season
One way to compare players’ careers is to plot their seasons side-by-side, but rearrange them from best to worst. Instead of putting their first seasons together or their 2011 seasons together, you can put their best seasons together. For instance, Manning’s best season (by xWin%*) was his 2004 campaign while Brady’s best was the magnificent 2007 season. As you’ll see below those two seasons are quite comparable. The rest of the seasons are done in the same manner, from 2nd through 12th best seasons.
*xWin%, as explained in Part II, is the expected winning percentage for a QB based on his EPA (again using Brian Burke’s Expected Points model) in that game.
As the graph shows, Manning and Brady’s best 3 seasons are all nearly identical. However, starting with their 4th best years Manning starts to separate himself. By their 7th best, Peyton is around 70% xWin% while Brady is at 60%. One thing to note is that Brady has one fewer season, so in this sample he only had 11 seasons while Manning had 12. We are also missing Manning’s 98 and 99 seasons but in this analysis adding those in could only help him.
Overall, Peyton’s xWin% was 69% to Brady’s 64%. Manning’s actual regular season win % was worse than Brady’s–73% to 78%–but that is because he was given worse support. An average QB given Peyton’s defense/special teams/running game would win slightly less than half their games: 48%. Brady, meanwhile, benefited from very good support with an sWin%* of 56%. Based on that, Manning has outperformed his support by nearly 25%, compared to Brady’s also-outstanding 22%, the top two numbers of the past decade-plus.
*sWin% is how often a quarterback would win based on everything besides his own EPA (that is, his defense, special teams, and offensive plays he was not involved in).
This comparison, however, is only getting tighter. Manning’s three best seasons, in order, were 2004, 2005, and 2009. Brady, meanwhile, has had his best seasons in 2007, 2011, and 2012. From 2000 through 2006, Manning dominated Brady with an xWin% of 68% to Brady’s 56%. At this point, the perception was nowhere near reality. Brady had 3 rings and a sterling postseason record, with many preferring him to Manning who had no rings (he’d get his first following the 06 regular season) despite his multiple MVP awards. From that point on, however, it’s been Brady who has been the best QB in the league with a 73% xWin% to Manning’s 2nd-place 69%. With Manning a year and a half older and Brady playing the best football of his career, the gap could shrink in the coming years.
Into the Postseason
Last time we cut off our top postseason performers after the top 4, and that’s because of this:
#5 Peyton Manning: 59.4%
#6 Tom Brady: 58.5%
*Each player is missing a game–Manning’s first playoff game in 1999 came before my set and Brady was not the QB of record in the 2001 AFC Championship game when Bledsoe relieved him after he was injured and Bledsoe had more pass attempts.
In their playoff careers, Peyton Manning has actually played–ever so slightly–better than Tom Brady. Manning should have won just over 11 of his 19 games on average, for an expected record of 11.3 wins and 7.7 losses. Brady’s expected record is 13.5 and 9.5. So what explains the difference between their expected and actual records? Their support. An average QB would win just 40% of the games that Manning played while the support alone would be good enough for an average QB to win over half the time (52% sWin%) in Brady’s games.
As we did with their regular seasons, this time let’s plot Manning and Brady’s postseason careers on a game-by-game basis with their best games first. In these graphs, the line shows each quarterback’s games from best to worst. Green dots represent wins and red ones losses. The gray bars represent the sWin% for that game, with above average support above the line and below average support below.
In Manning’s 19 career playoff games, he has received positive support just 5 times. Amazingly, the best three support games all came during the Colts 2006 Super Bowl run. In those 3 games (#14-16 above), Manning turned in three of his worst postseason games, all with xWin%’s under 50% including the Super Bowl itself. The only game where Manning played well was the famous AFC Championship game where he led a huge comeback win over the Patriots, his 74% xWin% was good enough to overcome the 45% sWin%. In the other three games, Manning was bailed out by incredible support: all those games saw him receive support with an sWin% over 90%. The only other game where he received significant help from the rest of the team was the 2003 AFC Championship game where Manning turned in by far his worst postseason performance (this was the famous 4-INT snow game).
We can really divide Manning’s career into three parts. In Manning’s best 6 games–all wins–he totaled 5.3 expected wins, giving him +0.7 wins thanks to support and luck (mostly luck in this case as he only received positive support in one game). The second section is Manning’s next 6 best games where he was above average, all between 55% and 71% xWin%. In those 6 games, we would expect him to win nearly 4 of them (3.8 expected wins). He won zero. The support was so bad that an average QB would win only 1.3 of those 6 games. What poor support didn’t take care of, bad luck did. For instance, of those 6 games, the best sWin% and worst xWin% came in the same game (#12 above). That was the 2005 loss to the Steelers when Mike Vanderjagt missed the potential game-tying FG.
The third section is Manning’s 7 below average playoff games. Here, we’d expect him to win only 2.1 games while he actually won 3 (+0.9 wins). The support in these games, thanks mostly to the 2006 playoff run, would have helped an average QB win 4.3 games, meaning Manning cost the team 1.3 wins with his poor performance.
Add those up: in section 1, Manning benefited from support and/or luck to the tune of +0.7 wins. In the 3rd section, Manning lucked into another +0.9 wins. But in the middle section, Manning was unlucky by -3.8 wins. That’s a total of -2.2 wins.
While Manning received positive support in just 5 of his 19 postseason games, Brady has received better than average support in over half (12) of his 23 games. Like Manning, Brady won all of his 6 best games. His expected wins of 5.1 means he was helped by +0.9 wins. In the Brady’s 6 worst games, he won 2 of them, exactly in line with his expected win total in those games.
The big difference comes in the middle. Brady played 11 games where he managed an xWin% between 49% and 70%. Based on his play, his expected win total in those 11 games is 6.4. He won 8. Some of that was support, with a slightly above average sWin% of 52%, and some of that was good luck (Tuck Rule game, anyone?).
That’s the difference. In games where Manning and Brady play great, they win. When they play poorly, they lose as often as expected. But when they play well enough to win, Brady’s defense, special teams, and running game have supported him, while Manning’s support has failed him. These are things out of a quarterback’s control that have a huge impact on the outcome of games, and therefore their legacies.
Let’s split their careers in 2004. In both halves, Manning and Brady played nearly equal (Brady was better early 60% to 56% xWin%, Manning was better later 61% to 57%). In the three Super Bowl runs, the Patriots defense put up a 60% sWin%; Manning’s sWin%: 29%. Brady’s teams went 8-0, Manning’s went 3-4. Since then, Brady is finding out just how hard it is to win without great support. Both quarterbacks have received similar below-average support (46% for Manning; 48% for Brady) and both have won about half their games (6-6 for Manning; 8-7 for Brady).
It’s Not Over
This analysis is not the end-all, be-all to end this debate. However, it does move the discussion forward and future analysis can build on this. We used EPA, which is well-suited to this analysis, but so would WPA which is similar to EPA but also accounts for time and score. A cursory look at Advanced NFL Stats playoff pages for Brady and Manning shows that Manning averages 0.22 WPA per playoff game compared to 0.18 for Brady.
EPA also has some flaws. For instance, it only compares the start of the play to the end of the play. It doesn’t separate out Brady’s interception to Marlon McCree and McCree’s ensuing lost fumble forced by Troy Brown. It just sees a 4th and 5 followed by a 1st and 10, a play in which Brady was involved in. EPA doesn’t see that Troy Polamalu’s interception of Peyton Manning should have been upheld as a turnover; it just sees an incomplete pass. These are all very minor quibbles, but worth pointing out.
The biggest caveat is that while we were able to separate out non-QB EPA that the QB has no control over from QB EPA which the QB does have some control over, that QB EPA certainly does not tell the full story. For one thing, the quaterback has some control over the outcome of those plays, but certainly the rest of the offense deserves some credit. Quarterbacks with better receivers or offensive linemen would be helped by this analysis. Brady certainly had some poor passing game support early in his career, which could have hurt his QB EPA. Some further research would have to be done to determine exactly how much of the QB EPA should be credited to the QB. The quality of the defense quarterbacks face also affects their performance. A quick look shows that Manning has faced higher quality defenses in the postseason than Brady. Manning’s opposing defenses averaged -4 EPA per game in the regular season (remember, negative defense EPA is good) while Brady’s opposing defenses averaged -2 EPA. What about weather? Manning played many games in domes while Brady’s home games were outside in the cold, which has been shown to have an effect on QB play. There are certainly other biases and factors that could have some effect on this analysis.
What we’ve done here is control for the biggest factor outside of a quarterback’s control in determining the outcome of games. Based on their QB EPA, Manning and Brady have played remarkably similar over their playoff careers. The difference between their performance and their actual postseason record is nearly all explained by the support they received.
You can argue that Brady has been a better postseason QB than Manning, but your argument can’t have anything to do with their win-loss record while ignoring the fact that Brady has benefited from much better defensive support. The fact is that among the two best quarterbacks of their generation, Manning is not only the better regular season quarterback but also that–ever so slightly–Peyton Manning has been a better playoff quarterback than Tom Brady.
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It’s sad that you’ve wasted this much time using only advanced statistics to compare the two. You’re worse than Bill Barnwell.
I’ll take that as a compliment as Bill Barnwell is one of the best football writers out there. I guess the only thing sadder is that you somehow found this article and took the time to comment on it.
You mad big guy? “I guess the only thing sadder is that you somehow found this article” It’s funny that you’re willing to acknowledge how much of a shit writer you are. “And took the time to comment on it.” Isn’t it even sadder that you’ve assembled all of this information only to have no one look at it? My comment took me one minute. This article probably took you over an hour. Don’t quit your day job buddy.
Very well written article, unbiased with good statistics. I would be interested to see it expanded upon with statistics like WPA. Keep up the good work.
Full disclosure: I think Brady is a better player. However, your article is interesting. I’d look to you for how it could be done, but I’d like to find a way to compare these two by examining the offensive players around them. Manning was always surrounded by better offensive weapons, and when Brady had a receiver the caliber of Harrison (Moss) he was able to put up fantastic numbers, but most of his career he had average or below average talent. The problem is that it could be argued that Manning made his receivers better, but the two quarterbacks now have comparable statistics due to a receiver that they both played with – Welker. In a record setting year, Manning could not provide Welker with the numbers that Brady did just one year earlier. This either speaks to the better talent Manning had around him (Welker being a third option rather than a first) or perhaps it shows that Brady was able to produce more with the same level of talent. I think this speaks to Brady’s ability to do more with less. I also wonder if numbers could be used to look at the benefits of a domed stadium vs. outdoors. How you would quantify this would be interesting, if it could be done at all. Great piece though – I really enjoyed it, even if I just discovered it in 2014.
How do you figure Manning has just one more season than Brady? 98-99-00.. Brady started 2001.. Brady missed 08 season, manning missed 11 season.. To me, that looks like manning has 3 more seasons than brady.
I’ve been watching the NFL closely since the mid-1980s and your analysis just confirms what my”eye test” was already telling me– which is that Peyton is a slightly better QB than Brady. Football is the ultimate team game and only the most misinformed fans (or New England homers) think the number of rings a QB has is the best measure of how great that QB is. For example, no one in their right mind actually thinks Terry Bradshaw (4 rings) is a greater QB than Tom Brady (3 rings) or John Elway (2 rings). QBs need to be judged on how they personally perform– their numbers– not whether their team happened to be good enough on defense that year to win a Super Bowl.
You disprove your whole point above: Manning should have won just over 11 of his 19 games on average, for an expected record of 11.3 wins and 7.7 losses. Brady’s expected record is 13.5 and 9.5. So what explains the difference between their expected and actual records? Their support. An average QB would win just 40% of the games that Manning played while the support alone would be good enough for an average QB to win over half the time (52% sWin%) in Brady’s games.
Not in line with above, Manning has under achieved these projections at 10-11 and Brady has overachieved at 18-7. Manning does have the win % of an average QB (47% compared to 40%), while Brady has a much higher win percentage (72%) than an average QB (52%) with his “support”. You are basically disproving your whole argument.
Peyton manning is 11 of 12 in his postseason record, stop trying to sugarcoat peyton Mannings dismal performance in the playoffs..
Since 2004…Brady has had 4 bad performances..05,09,10, and 12. A loss to Denver in 05 then two Raven losses and to the Jets, all at home I believe. 2007 SB, he and the offense choked, yes he was getting battered but the best offense ever scored 1 measly TD in each half, that’s underperforming on the biggest stage. 2011, while not playing bad in the SB, Brady played not so good against the Raven in the AFC championship, another Patriot miracle the Ravens choked. And last year Manning and the Broncos won easily in Denver and the Pats offense struggled big time. In 06 Brady played decent/good against the Colts in their loss, but again won another miraculous game the week before against the Chargers.
like the article says in 03 and 04, the Pats had a great defense, great kicker and a great running game since then it’s been more “on him” he doesn’t have any rings and has played downright bad in 4 losses, and mediocre in 4 other losses. The 2 Giant SB losses were close as was the 2006 AFC championship, the others were clear losses.
Manning, if your looking objectively has been very unlucky in Jan. 05,07,08,10, 12….all losses in either the final minutes of regulation or overtime, with terrible plays that had nothing to do with him. 05 Nick Harpers return thwarted by Ben Rothlisberger would have won the game right there, Vanderjagts FG miss at the end of regulation too….tough breaks. 07 was the most unluckly I’ve ever seen him, the Colts recievers/backs turned the ball over twice going into the endzone…practically every possession Manning went down the field and got within the 25, on top of that their D couldn’t stop a Chargers offense with no Rivers or LT, 08 he gets sacked on the Colts 5 with about 2 mins left, the D can’t hold em, they tie it…OT…loses the toss, the Colts D blew either 2 or 3, 3rd and longs on run plays…again horrifically bad luck. 2010…their up 2 with about a minute or so left..special teams allows a 40 something yard return, D allows a 17 yard pass and they lose on a last second field goal. 2012 after scoring 35 points and being up by 7 with 40 seconds left the Broncos D allows a 70 pass to go for a TD……That one was terrible…horrible play, horrible defensive play calling, etc. And the 05 and 12 heartbreakers would most likely have been Superbowl winning years.
and the clearest example of Manning being better and more valuable….the years each of them were hurt. In 08 the Pats won 11 games without Brady…11. The Colts won 2. Matt Cassel was a rookie whose average at best. Belichicks offense scheme allows accurate passers to excel by throwing short to intermediate passes and YAC.
Echo Chris’s comment from November. Comparing actual win percent vs. Expected win percent (based on support) brady dwarfs manning. You need to take this into account or shoe where that reasoning is flawed
The remaining difference comes down to some luck and flaws in the stats I think. If the stats say you should have won 70% of the games based on your performance, 50% of the games when combining that with your team’s performance, and you only win 40%, there’s either a flaw in the stats (which is pretty much a given with any statistical analysis, they work better over very large samples, and always have a margin for error) or bad luck. As one poster pointed out, how do you explain the Broncos giving up a 70 yard TD with 40 seconds left in the game? Manning has lost an awful lot of close ones where he was winning when he left the game for the last time.
The claim by Mike that Manning’s teams often lead when he leaves the field is false. This has only happened once, the game against the Jets on January 8, 2011 that NY won on a last second field goal.
Duke is clearly a Manning-loving troll. He criticizes Brady for not scoring more in SB XLII against NY. But he doesn’t apply this same standard to Manning, when Peyton’s team scored only 18 points against Pittsburgh, only 17 in 2008 in San Diego, the SB against the Saints only 17, the game against the Jets only 16, and the SB against Seattle only 8.
If we’re talking about putting your team ahead late and then watching the defense cough up the lead, Brady lost both Super Bowls to TDs in the final minute, and the 2006 afc champ to Manning very late as well. If you’re going to say it’s not Manning’s fault when his D gives up a late score, why not apply the same standard to Brady?
At this point, it’s impossible to sustain the argument that Manning has outperformed Brady in the playoffs. Brady has won more Super Bowls, won more playoff games, won a higher percentage of his playoff starts, has thrown for more yards and TDs in the playoffs, and has thrown fewer INTs per attempt. His teams have also outscored Manning’s teams by 4 points per game in the playoffs. Brady has 9 career game winning drives in the playoffs, the most all time. Manning has only one. There is no debate. Brady is the better playoff quarterback.
Hey Larz Abindigo, yea really unbiased blog from a guy who favorite team is the indianapolis colts you dumb bitch. and hey monte,peyton manning is tom brady’s fucking sex slave gimp.
This is such a joke
Monte (you do NOT have a keen eye for statistics),
First of all I am a Broncos fan, have been my whole life and I started reading through this page in order to find some interesting FACTS to throw my coworkers way when they bring up Brady being better than Manning. The only reason I am commenting is to highlight your statistical errors in hopes that you may redo your complete page with current and factual data.
1. I stopped reading after reviewing your first graph
2. Your graph is incorrect
3. First thing I noticed- The paragraph title states “Manning v Brady: Regular Season” and graph title states “Manning v Brady: Best Seasons” yet Brady’s perfect season is not on there.
4. You specifically state in the above paragraph, “ Brady’s best was the magnificent 2007 season” yet it is still not on the graph.
5. I pulled my own numbers since yours could not be trusted
6. Again you stated, “Manning’s best season was 2004”. Yet his best regular season was 2005 and 2009 with 14 wins
7. On your graph Brady’s 11th best season is at 50% (meaning 8 wins and 8 losses). NEWS FLASH, NE has not finished 8-8 since 1999 (pre-Brady)
8. Your line markers should only fall on the following percentages (only combinations x/16)… 100, 94, 88, 81, 75, 69, 63, and 56%, most of your markers do not reflect that
9. I realize this article is old since the first comment is from 2013 so I understand why you have 11 games for Brady depending on the data you are pulling but where is Brady’s 2002 season finishing 9-7? Marker should be at 56%
10. By searching your article (ctrl f) I can tell that you only reference games up to 2012.
11. Let me spell this out as simple as it can be since you obviously cannot handle percentages…(not including 2013-15) throwing out Brady’s 08 and 00 seasons as well as Manning’s 01, 98, and 2011 seasons
12. Manning’s regular season wins from best to 11th – (14 wins ,2005) (14 wins ,2009) (13 wins ,1999) (13 wins ,2007) (13 wins ,2012) (12 wins ,2003) (12 wins ,2004) (12 wins ,2006) (12 wins ,2008) (10 wins ,2000) (10 wins ,2002)…**12th would be 2010 with 10 wins**
13. Brady’s regular season wins from best to 11th -(16 wins ,2007) (14 wins ,2003) (14 wins ,2004) (14 wins ,2010) (13 wins ,2011) (12 wins ,2006) (12 wins ,2012) (11 wins ,2001) (10 wins ,2005) (10 wins ,2009) (9 wins ,2002)
14. Based on the data (top 11 games 1999-2012) or if you were to graph it again with the dates you were using each QB would have a total of 135 wins in the regular season.
15. If you added more recent data Brady proves to have statistically better “ Best Seasons (regular seasons)”
16. Next time you should make sure that the first piece of data you put in an article is sound (100% correct)
17. Pulling my own data and writing this comment was a lot more entertaining than reading the rest of your article with possible (most likely) incorrect information.
18. Lastly GO Broncos and though I prefer Manning over Brady, I still respect the facts.
You are poisoning the internet with your false data, redo your numbers/article or find a better hobby where being educated is not required!!
Anonymous, for this post, I am using expected points translated into expected winning percentages, NOT a quarterback’s actual win percentage.
For instance, the first graph you are referring to is using what I am calling xWin%. That is each quarterback’s expected win % based on the Expected Points Added in each game they played.
I explain xWin% and other stats I use here in part II of this series of posts, which you can find here: http://outsidethehashes.com/?p=636
I wish you would update this through 2016.
Anonymous: you are NOT a broncos fan and you obviously didn’t read the article. It gets much more specific than wins-losses. Fucking loser.
Sucks a cpl haters have to put their measely 2 cents in. Especially you Fuck Yourself, wish I was that ignorant. Manning is a better leader than anyone. Brady is more of a cheating whiny bitch. Denver owns the last 4 years, with Peyton breaking every record imaginable just 2 yrs ago. 55 TDs, 4 players with 10 TDs & 1000+ yards. He also sat out the second half cuz he had 7tds in the 1st half. He broke Favres TD record in 59 fewer games. The list is endless. Our D is the best ever comparable only to the 2000 Ravens. We played big Ben, Tom Brady, n cam Newton in the playoffs. All 3 were aten alive. Denver led all 3 games from start to finish. Denver has had 5 losing seasons since about 1970. N.E. was the laughing stock of the NFL for decades, remember them gay uniforms they wore forever. Denver smoked N.E. twice this year.Denvers been in 8 SBs. 1/6 of all Superbowls. They are current champs for a simple reason. They are the best!. If you can’t deal with that, then fuck ya. Truth hurts
Everybody in the world seems to forget that football is a TEAM SPORT and not a Qb playing against 11 guys by themselfs.that being said this particular comment goes to the bitch boy called go fuck yourself I’m sure you do when your looking at your little tom Brady poster but either your about 12 or you just don’t know shit about football either way your an idiot tom Brady is THE MOST OVERATED QB EVER!!!!!!!!!!!. I can use up this intire page just to show you how bad tom Brady is in the postseason compared to Peyton. But you have smartphones look up Brady and Manning’s stats since the rest of the team apparently are not on the field and Peyton would still smoke him. That being said yes tom Brady might have more playoff wins and rings but Brady and manning have played 5 times in the postseason manning winning 3 of the 5 and all three wins in the afc championship game which to me is the secound most important game of the year. You fucking Brady jizz swallowers like go fuckyourself up there have beaten manning in meaningless regular season games where the only thing that’s on the line is seeding oh my God bradys so tucking great then it get to the games that count manning fucks bradys ugly ass fuck wife slaps bill beticheat and throws the touchdown at the same time and Brady does this and I quoit from afc. Championship just this year Brady back to throw looking for gronk and its intercepted by von miller Brady threw it right to him.that’s a quiot from this years game.Brady only gets to the Superbowl when he doesn’t have to play Peyton. Bradys lost 9 playoff games 4 of those losses are to Peyton manning.
I wasn’t done yet bottom line is you patriot fans or who ever learn the game not just the qbs learn the fucking game coverages schemes etc. Brandy’s had better teams its not up for debate it is a fact look it up on your smartphones look at bradys defensive ranks for his intire career then look up Manning’s there’s a huge deferense. Brady cheated for three rings and got lucky for the fourth. Manning dragged the worst defensive team in the colts every year to 12 13 14 wins Brady can barely win 10 with and overall better team. Manning’s the greatest of all time period Brady cant even wash his jokestrap. Not an opinnion its fact.
No accounting for weather? Domes? No accounting for Mannings much better cast of skill players?
No mention that the 2 SB’s Manning “won” he recorded the worst and 2nd worst QB Rating of any SB winning QB.
Manning a better leader? You must have forgot the playoff games in NE in 2003 and 2004 when the hysterical/depressed Manning tossed 4 INT’s and 1 TD in one game (and then blamed his OL to the media). In the other 0 TD, 1 INT and 3 points produced.
Manning peed down his leg vs Seattle from the first play until the last play of that SB. The next year Brady faced essentially the same D, and came back from the biggest deficeit in NFL SB history to win with THE best 4th quarter ever seen by a QB in the SB.
Brady has almost twice as many 97+ QB Rating games in the playoffs as Manning and won them all (11-0) Manning only has 7, and he was 5-2.
How about all those record setting teams Manning had, and then all the pitiful one and dones in the playoff – almost twice as many as any other QB ever. Choke.
Manning played on teams rated in the top 5 more than Brady did.
Brady 23-9 in the playoffs, Choke Manning 11-9 is it? Har Har
Did you know Brady blows Manning away in QB Rating in Dome games?
Brady played with lesser offensive skill players, yet he produced more PPG then Manning with his elite casts.
Manning was the #1 pick, Brady #199. Manning was paid about $930k per game, Brady about $670k. Who was worth more per game? Who won more? Who actually won titles with his play instead of playing like a scared college sophmore that let his D’s win the games.
Manning == Fraud
Sad this turned into a hate-fest. As a former college QB and huge QB fan, I love this debate, and feel fortunate to have watched these 2 play. And, after Brady’s 5th SB it’s hard to argue that Brady doesn’t have the better career. With that said, here is why I would favor Manning (ask me tomorrow and I may favor Brady…or Elway:):
1. Manning was thrown into the fire on a team and organization that flat out sucked.
2. He took four different coaches, and two franchises to SB victories.
3. Brady has had the best coach in sports history IMO, and in his first 3 SB wins an awesome D and the best kicker the game has ever seen. 17+ seasons with the same offense, coaches, routine, management etc. cannot be understated. In fact, I’m not sure this isn’t the biggest reason for Brady’s continued success.
4. Manning’s supporting cast was inconsistent at best. Football is the ultimate team game. Not having that same dependable climate that Brady had ( Coaches, a solid D or kicker) puts tremendous stress on any offense-no matter how stacked. Often, Manning had to cover his team’s weaknesses in a way I don’t think Brady has ever had to.
5. Were Brady drafted by the Colts, I believe he would have been a journeyman QB until he found the right atmosphere-which he may never have found. I don’t think there were many rosters in the league that Manning wouldn’t have turned around. Would if the Patriots had Manning?
6. With all of this said, Brady has developed himself, with tremendous hard work, the ability to be coached, and leadership skills second to no other QB. The finished product of Brady is what sometimes pulls me from favoring Manning, but the eyeball test still goes to Manning.
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