Archive for March 2019


The Case for Objective Selection

March 17th, 2019 — 8:00am

Every year around this time, the 350+ Division I basketball teams wrap up their regular seasons and–save for the 32 conference champions who receive automatic bids–leave their fates in the hands of the aptly-named Selection Committee. Later today, this committee will finish pouring over each team to select the 36 at-large teams to complete the field of 68. It’s a supposedly painstaking process that takes many days and long nights for the committee members to arrive at their selections.

It’s also completely unnecessary. Actually, worse than that. It’s detrimental to the process. I’m here to tell you why.

Continue reading »

2 comments » | College Basketball, descriptive, March Madness, predictive, team evaluation

Conference Tournament Predictions 2019 – All Tournaments

March 13th, 2019 — 5:33pm

All conference tournament predictions are now in. You can follow along with this year’s contest by using this google spreadsheet link: predictions. TeamRankings currently holds a commanding lead and is trying to win their 3rd Conference Tournament Predictions Contest. Final results to be posted once all the games are completed.

Comment » | College Basketball, Conference Tournament predictions, March Madness, predictive, team evaluation

Conference Tournament Predictions 2019 – Early Tournaments

March 8th, 2019 — 8:37pm

I’m once again tracking conference tournament predictions between my own system, KenPom, and TeamRankings. I discuss the scoring system in this post, but essentially for each team result that actually happens (e.g. Loyola wins the MVC, Indiana loses in the 2nd Round, etc.) we grade the predictions based on how likely they thought that result was to happen, punishing predictions more severely the less likely a system predicted it to happen.

You can follow along with this year’s contest by using this google spreadsheet link: predictions. In the very early going, TeamRankings is off to an early lead, followed by my Predict the Madness system, and then Ken Pomeroy’s in 3rd.

I will try to post another update early next week once all of the conference tournament brackets have been set. Until then, enjoy the early conference tournament action!

Comment » | College Basketball, Conference Tournament predictions, March Madness, predictive, team evaluation

Conference Tournaments 2018 – Final Results

March 8th, 2019 — 3:58pm

Before I get to this year’s predictions, I realized I never posted last year’s final results, but my predictions did pull out the victory, narrowly holding off a strong TeamRankings run. KenPom finished 3rd.

That gives two victories apiece for myself and TR, with KenPom having one victory. Full results (PTM are my own predictions):

  • 2013: (1) TR, (2) KP, (3) PTM
  • 2014: no contest
  • 2015: (1) TR, (2) KP, (3) PTM
  • 2016: (1) PTM, (2) TR, (3) KP
  • 2017: (1) KP, (2) TR, (3) KP
  • 2018: (1) PTM, (2) TR, (3) KP

It’s been an especially impressive run for TeamRankings, who has 2 first-place finishes and 3 second-place finishes, while never finishing in last.

The full results (Google spreadsheet) can be viewed by clicking here.

Comment » | College Basketball, Conference Tournament predictions, March Madness, predictive, team evaluation

Back to top