Category: Conference Tournament predictions


Conference Tournament Predictions 2019 – All Tournaments

March 13th, 2019 — 5:33pm

All conference tournament predictions are now in. You can follow along with this year’s contest by using this google spreadsheet link: predictions. TeamRankings currently holds a commanding lead and is trying to win their 3rd Conference Tournament Predictions Contest. Final results to be posted once all the games are completed.

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Conference Tournament Predictions 2019 – Early Tournaments

March 8th, 2019 — 8:37pm

I’m once again tracking conference tournament predictions between my own system, KenPom, and TeamRankings. I discuss the scoring system in this post, but essentially for each team result that actually happens (e.g. Loyola wins the MVC, Indiana loses in the 2nd Round, etc.) we grade the predictions based on how likely they thought that result was to happen, punishing predictions more severely the less likely a system predicted it to happen.

You can follow along with this year’s contest by using this google spreadsheet link: predictions. In the very early going, TeamRankings is off to an early lead, followed by my Predict the Madness system, and then Ken Pomeroy’s in 3rd.

I will try to post another update early next week once all of the conference tournament brackets have been set. Until then, enjoy the early conference tournament action!

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Conference Tournaments 2018 – Final Results

March 8th, 2019 — 3:58pm

Before I get to this year’s predictions, I realized I never posted last year’s final results, but my predictions did pull out the victory, narrowly holding off a strong TeamRankings run. KenPom finished 3rd.

That gives two victories apiece for myself and TR, with KenPom having one victory. Full results (PTM are my own predictions):

  • 2013: (1) TR, (2) KP, (3) PTM
  • 2014: no contest
  • 2015: (1) TR, (2) KP, (3) PTM
  • 2016: (1) PTM, (2) TR, (3) KP
  • 2017: (1) KP, (2) TR, (3) KP
  • 2018: (1) PTM, (2) TR, (3) KP

It’s been an especially impressive run for TeamRankings, who has 2 first-place finishes and 3 second-place finishes, while never finishing in last.

The full results (Google spreadsheet) can be viewed by clicking here.

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Conference Tournament Predictions 2018 – Early Results

March 5th, 2018 — 10:32pm

As I’ve done for most of the last few seasons (I missed 2014 for some reason), I’m tracking conference tournament predictions between Ken Pomeroy, Team Rankings, and myself. In the previous 4 years I’ve tracked, Team Rankings has 2 victories to 1 each for both KenPom and my own predictions.

Now that all the conference tournament fields have been set, here are the full predictions for all 3 systems this year (with results through Sunday): predictions. I discuss the scoring system in this post, but essentially for each team result that actually happens (e.g. Loyola wins the MVC, Indiana loses in the 2nd Round, etc.) we grade the predictions based on how likely they thought that result was to happen, punishing predictions more severely the less likely a system predicted it to happen.

In the early going, it’s my Predict the Madness system that is off to a strong start, but there are still a lot of games to be played as the majority of conferences will kick off tournament play this week. I’ll be back early next week with the final results.

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Conference Tournaments 2017 – Final Results

March 16th, 2017 — 10:01pm

Quick post today as the big tournament has started, but time to wrap up the Conference Tournament prediction contest. For the first time, Ken Pomeroy takes home the title. Team Rankings still leads with 2 overall titles and my own rankings have 1 title as does KenPom now.

Team Rankings came in a close 2nd while it was a tough year for Predict the Madness, who came in a distant third.

The spreadsheet with this year’s results can be found here.

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Conference Tournament Predictions 2017 – Late Tournaments

March 8th, 2017 — 7:01pm

Last week, I posted the predictions for the 13 early tournaments. Now the other 19 (that’s right, the Ivy League has joined the party) tournaments are set and most are underway, so I’ve updated the Google spreadsheet with all the predictions. KenPom is off to the early lead and looking for his first ever victory in the prestigious Conference Tournament Predictions contest that he doesn’t know he’s in. TeamRankings, the two-time champion, is in 2nd place, while my predictions (the reigning champs!) are trailing the pack.

Cinderella Index – Early Tournaments

In last week’s post, I introduced the Cinderella Index as a way to try and quantify which teams to root for during chamionship week. Let’s see where we stand with those Cinderellas: Continue reading »

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Conference Tournament Predictions 2017 – Early Tournaments and the Cinderella Index

March 4th, 2017 — 7:44am

Thirteen of the conference tournaments kick off early and are all under way. With the lone exception of the America East tournament, they will conclude early as well beginning with the Ohio Valley on Saturday and ending with the Patriot league title on Wednesday. The rest of the tournaments kick off next Monday or after and conclude either next Saturday or on Selection Sunday itself including the first ever Ivy League tournament.

As I’ve done in years past (2013, 2015, 2016), I’ll be tracking my conference tournament predictions against those of both KenPom and Team Rankings. The predictions for the early tournaments are up here on Google drive and I’ll add the remaining tournaments in once their brackets are set.

But while we wait and see how the projections will fare, I want to explain what my rooting interests will be during Championship Week.

Introducing the Cinderella Index

Continue reading »

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Conference Tournament Predictions 2016 – Final Results

March 14th, 2016 — 12:28am

Today is Selection Sunday, representing the start of the NCAA Tournament, but it also marks the end of the conference tournament season.

Earlier, I recapped how my projection system fared in 2015 with conference tournament predictions against Ken Pomeroy and Team Rankings predictions. Unfortunately for myself, the results were the same as when I tracked these in 2013–a 3rd place finish behind 2nd place KenPom and 1st place Team Rankings.

This year, things were finally different and my projections scored a resounding victory over the other two competitors, while Team Rankings edged out KenPom for 2nd place honors. The full results are in a google spreadsheet here. My projections had a strong showing, “winning” over half of the 31 conference tournaments–in 16 conferences I had the lowest cumulative score by conference, with 9 2nd place finishes and 6 3rd places. Team Rankings actually had more last place finishes than KenPom (13-12) but had twice as many 1st places (10-5) which was enough to secure the 2nd place overall finish for TR.

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Conference Tournament Predictions 2015 – Final Results

March 3rd, 2016 — 11:52pm

Three years ago, I compiled predictions for the conference tournaments from three sources–my own, Ken Pomeroy, and Team Rankings. When the dust settled, Team Rankings had narrowly edged out KenPom for the title as I lagged behind a distant third.

I didn’t get around to it in 2014 (though perhaps I can find time to go back and gather predictions from that season), but last year I did track things. Unfortunately, I’m just now getting around to posting it. The results were the same, though this time, Team Rankings won comfortably over KenPom and my own predictions. I’ve posted the full spreadsheet on Google docs, which you can find here. I discuss the scoring system in this post. Since we are posting advancement odds, we don’t have predictions for each individual matchup. Instead, predictions are essentially a rolled up version of all possible matchups. To score them, I use the log of each team’s predictions to get exactly to the round they did. For instance, my predictions for Montana in the Big Sky tournament were 81%/61%/43%, meaning an 81% chance of winning the 1st round and advancing to the semifinals, 61% of reaching the final, and 43% of winning the title. Another way of looking at it is that Montana had a 19% chance to lose in the 1st round (that’s 100% minus the 81% chance to win in the 1st round), a 20% chance of winning one game and then losing in the semis, an 18% chance of winning twice and losing in the final, and, of course, the 43% chance to win it all. Those are the probabilities that are scored.

This year is under way. If I get around to it, I may post the predictions for each of the three systems, but either way, I’ll be back in a couple weeks with the final results. Good luck to Ken Pomeroy and Team Rankings; I hope to be able to at least climb out of the cellar this year.

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Conference Tournament Predictions – Final Results

March 18th, 2013 — 5:13pm

Last time, I laid out the method by which I would grade the conference tournament predictions.

The tournaments are over so it’s time to present the results…and it’s not pretty for my predictions.

TeamRankings: -317.53

KenPom: -317.87

Predict The Madness (me): -321.26

Yeah, the latter half of the conference tournaments did not go so well for my system. It’s not the biggest sample, but around 300 games gives us some indication. Perhaps next year I’ll grade all regular season predictions.

And now, it’s time for the real tournament. Enjoy the madness.

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