Football is finally back as college football kicks off its season tomorrow. As an early present, I’m unveiling an expected points model for the collegiate game.
First, due respects need to be paid. This is heavily influenced by the work over at AdvancedNFLStats.com, where Brian Burke has done the same thing for the NFL. Many others have done similar work in football as well. And most of the football work is based off work done in baseball, where, while not the first, tangotiger at The Book Blog is arguably the most well-known for his run and win expectancy work (for those familiar with baseball, run expectancy by base-out state is essentially equivalent to the expected points concept in football).
What Expected Points (EP) does is provide a baseline for a given situation based on what we’d expect the average team to do. My EP system, like Brian Burke’s, is based on Down, Distance, and Yardline, but other things like time remaining in the half, timeouts remaining, etc. can be included. By putting everything on same scale we have an easy way to compare any type of situation, and by using points as that scale, we have something that is both intuitive and informative. When I say that that 1st and 10 on your opponents’ 20-yard line is worth 3.9 points, you immediately have a sense of what that means.