Category Archives: team evaluation

Grading the Selection Committee’s In-Season Preview

Today, the NCAA Selection Committee put out their first ever in-season preview, releasing the current top 16 if the season were to end today. Let’s see how they did. First, here is their s-curve alongside my own Achievement Rankings, ESPN’s … Continue reading

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Conference Tournament Predictions 2016 – Final Results

Today is Selection Sunday, representing the start of the NCAA Tournament, but it also marks the end of the conference tournament season. Earlier, I recapped how my projection system fared in 2015 with conference tournament predictions against Ken Pomeroy and Team Rankings predictions. … Continue reading

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Conference Tournament Predictions 2015 – Final Results

Three years ago, I compiled predictions for the conference tournaments from three sources–my own, Ken Pomeroy, and Team Rankings. When the dust settled, Team Rankings had narrowly edged out KenPom for the title as I lagged behind a distant third. … Continue reading

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College Football Playoff – Final Achievement Rankings

We’re less than an hour from the CFB Playoff selection, so I figured I’d release a final version of my system. For an explanation of the system and caveats with it, see this post. We can set the baseline team … Continue reading

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NCAA Tournament Predictions – 2013

With the tournament under way, I wanted to post my NCAA Tournament predictions. Things didn’t go so well for me with my Conference Tournament predictions, so hopefully the big dance will provide some sort of redemption. I really hate the … Continue reading

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Winners and Losers from Selection Sunday

Despite what many television analysts might say, seeding does have an enormous impact on a team’s chances to advance in the tournament. Every seed line you move up increases your chances of going further in the tournament. But the seeds … Continue reading

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The Achievement S-Curve – 2013 Final

Selection Sunday 2013 is in the books. Time to release the final Achievement S-Curve of 2013 and see how it compares to the actual bracket. The 2013 Achievement S-Curve (click twice to embiggen):

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Conference Tournament Predictions – Final Results

Last time, I laid out the method by which I would grade the conference tournament predictions. The tournaments are over so it’s time to present the results…and it’s not pretty for my predictions. TeamRankings: -317.53 KenPom: -317.87 Predict The Madness … Continue reading

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Conference Tournament Predictions – Update 3/14/2013

As I laid out in my introductory post, I am laying out my conference tournament predictions in order to compare them to other predictions out there. The two that I know of are Ken Pomery’s Log5 predictions and TeamRankings predictions. … Continue reading

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ACC, Big Ten, A-10, Big West, Great West, and Big Sky Conference Tournament Predictions – 2013

Click here to check out all the conference tournament predictions. In the final installment of my conference tournament predictions, we look at the remaining 6 conferences. They range from the Big  Ten–one of the best conferences of recent memory–to the Great West, … Continue reading

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