The Achievement S-Curve: 2/21/2013

It’s time to re-introduce the Achievement S-Curve for the 2013 season. For those of you that are new, I’ll give a quick recap in this post but check out previous posts that go into more detail about the system (try this and this and this for starters).

The Achievement S-Curve is a descriptive rating system that attempts to rate teams based on what they have accomplished. It is a subtle yet important difference from a predictive rating system. While a predictive system attempts to answer the question “who would win if these two teams played today?” a descriptive system answers “who has accomplished the most in the games they’ve already played?”.

An example is probably the best way to demonstrate the differences between the two systems. Let’s take a real-life example. My predictive rating system says that New Mexico is the 33rd best team in the country. That is, there are 32 teams I’d favor over the Lobos, but I’d pick them to beat every other team. Pitt, meanwhile, is the 7th best team. Only six teams in the nation would be favored over the Panthers today. However, New Mexico is 22-4 against the 29th-hardest schedule thus far while Pitt hasn’t fared as well with a 20-7 record against a very similar schedule (24th-most difficult). It is clear that New Mexico has “achieved” more thus far this season than Pitt has. The Lobos have earned a higher seed than Pitt, despite the fact that Pitt would beat them more times than not.

The Achievement Ratings work by first looking at the difficulty of a team’s schedule. Schedule difficulty is measured by how many losses an “average tournament team” (think of this like an 8 or 9 seed; examples this year are Notre Dame, UNLV, and Oregon) would have against the opponents the team in question has played. Location is also a factor, playing @ Indiana is more difficult than playing the Hoosiers at home. New Mexico’s SOS this year is 8.5, meaning a baseline team would be expected to win 17.5 and lose 8.5 games against UNM’s schedule. Pitt’s SOS is slightly harder at 8.7.

Next, we compare how many wins and losses each team actually has. New Mexico has 22 wins and just 4 losses, which is 4.5 more wins (or fewer losses) than expected, so their Achievement Score (AchS) is 4.5. Pitt has been good, just not as good as New Mexico, and their 20-7 record is just 1.7 games (8.7 minus 7) better than expected, for an AchS of 1.7. New Mexico’s 4.5 score is good for 7th in the nation currently, and a #2 seed in my bracket, while Pitt comes in at 26th which translates to a #7 seed.

Achievement S-Curve

With the particulars out of the way, let’s see what the Achievement S-Curve looks like. The Achievement S-Curve is simply the Achievement Ratings translated into bracket form. The top 4 teams are the #1 seeds, the next 4 are #2 seeds, etc. Automatic bids are awarded to the team in each conference that has the best predictive rating. Since conferences (except the Ivy) award their automatic bids to tournament champions, it is more likely that the best teams will win it and not the current teams that have achieved the most (there is actually a better way to do this that accounts for not just the quality of the team, but also it’s current conference play to-date, the structure of the conference tournament, and the standing of the rest of the conference’s teams…more on that later).

Here’s the current Achievement S-Curve. Automatic bids are listed with their conference in parentheses. (Click to zoom.)

If you prefer more information, here’s a full table with all the information. The first column is the overall Achievement Ranks for all 347 teams; the second column is only for the 68 tournament teams. “Pred Rk” is the ranking of the team in my predictive system. The final column is ESPN’s Bracketology seed for comparison. It’s a big table, so scroll horizontally to see all the columns.

Ovr	S-Curve	Team	Conf	Seed	Status	First 4?	AchS	L Wk	Avg	SOS	SOS Rk	Pred Rk	Record	ESPN
1	1	Indiana	BIG10	1	Auto		6.28	1.04	0.23	9.28	14	2	24-3	1
2	2	Duke	ACC	1	Auto		5.96	-0.45	0.24	8.96	18	13	22-3	1
3	3	Gonzaga	WCC	1	Auto		5.67	1.29	0.21	7.67	62	6	25-2	2
4	4	Michigan State	BIG10	1	At-Large		5.62	0.13	0.22	10.62	3	11	21-5	2
5	5	Michigan	BIG10	2	At-Large		5.59	0.10	0.22	9.59	9	4	21-4	2
6	6	Miami (FL)	ACC	2	At-Large		5.38	0.75	0.22	8.38	30	16	22-3	1
7	7	New Mexico	MWC	2	At-Large		4.46	0.21	0.17	8.46	29	33	22-4	3
8	8	Kansas	BIG12	2	Auto		4.33	0.87	0.17	8.33	33	14	22-4	3
9	9	Louisville	BIGEAST	3	Auto		4.31	0.51	0.17	9.31	13	3	21-5	3
10	10	Arizona	PAC12	3	Auto		4.10	0.06	0.16	8.10	44	12	22-4	3
11	11	Syracuse	BIGEAST	3	At-Large		4.03	0.58	0.15	8.03	46	8	22-4	2
12	12	Florida	SEC	3	Auto		3.95	-0.02	0.16	7.95	53	1	21-4	1
13	13	Georgetown	BIGEAST	4	At-Large		3.80	0.87	0.16	7.80	60	29	20-4	4
14	14	Wisconsin	BIG10	4	At-Large		3.67	0.87	0.14	11.67	1	5	19-8	5
15	15	Butler	A-10	4	At-Large		3.38	0.15	0.13	8.38	31	40	21-5	5
16	16	Kansas State	BIG12	4	At-Large		3.06	0.48	0.12	8.06	45	39	20-5	4
17	17	Ohio State	BIG10	5	At-Large		2.95	0.62	0.11	9.95	6	9	19-7	5
18	18	Marquette	BIGEAST	5	At-Large		2.93	0.98	0.12	8.93	19	18	19-6	4
19	19	Minnesota	BIG10	5	At-Large		2.53	0.27	0.09	11.53	2	10	18-9	8
20	20	Illinois	BIG10	5	At-Large		2.48	0.44	0.10	10.48	5	27	18-8	10
21	21	Wichita State	MVC	6	At-Large		2.27	1.04	0.08	7.27	78	30	23-5	10
22	22	Notre Dame	BIGEAST	6	At-Large		2.18	0.44	0.08	8.18	38	34	21-6	6
23	23	Memphis	C-USA	6	Auto		2.14	0.24	0.08	5.14	150	47	23-3	6
24	24	Oregon	PAC12	6	At-Large		1.98	0.41	0.08	6.98	86	35	21-5	6
25	25	Colorado State	MWC	7	Auto		1.97	0.08	0.08	6.97	87	15	19-5	5
26	26	Pittsburgh	BIGEAST	7	At-Large		1.71	-0.87	0.06	8.71	24	7	20-7	6
27	27	Oklahoma State	BIG12	7	At-Large		1.31	-0.24	0.05	7.31	76	25	19-6	4
28	28	Creighton	MVC	7	Auto		1.25	0.46	0.04	7.25	79	22	22-6	8
29	29	Missouri	SEC	8	At-Large		1.21	0.42	0.05	8.21	36	28	19-7	9
30	30	North Carolina State	ACC	8	At-Large		1.20	0.18	0.05	8.20	37	37	19-7	7
31	31	Connecticut	BIGEAST	8	At-Large		1.10	-0.75	0.05	8.10	43	32	17-7	NULL
32	32	Nevada-Las Vegas	MWC	8	At-Large		1.02	0.92	0.04	8.02	47	36	19-7	7
33	33	San Diego State	MWC	9	At-Large		0.96	-0.08	0.04	7.96	50	24	17-7	7
34	34	Cincinnati	BIGEAST	9	At-Large		0.96	-0.61	0.04	7.96	51	23	19-7	8
35	35	Saint Mary's (CA)	WCC	9	At-Large		0.77	-0.19	0.03	5.77	123	17	21-5	12
36	36	Colorado	PAC12	9	At-Large		0.73	-0.24	0.03	8.73	23	44	17-8	9
37	37	Middle Tennessee	SUNBELT	10	Auto		0.68	0.12	0.03	4.68	175	66	23-4	12
38	38	Oklahoma	BIG12	10	At-Large		0.57	-0.09	0.02	8.57	28	51	17-8	9
39	39	UCLA	PAC12	10	At-Large		0.36	0.17	0.01	7.36	74	43	19-7	8
40	40	Iowa	BIG10	10	At-Large		0.33	0.88	0.01	9.33	12	26	17-9	NULL
41	41	Virginia Commonwealth	A-10	11	At-Large		0.22	0.07	0.01	6.22	110	20	21-6	7
42	42	Saint Louis	A-10	11	Auto		0.18	0.57	0.01	5.18	148	19	20-5	9
43	43	North Carolina	ACC	11	At-Large		0.17	0.72	0.01	8.17	39	41	17-8	10
44	44	Louisiana Tech	WAC	11	At-Large		0.03	0.33	0.00	3.03	310	88	23-3	13
45	45	La Salle	A-10	12	At-Large		-0.11	0.17	0.00	5.89	118	56	18-6	10
46	46	Akron	MAC	12	Auto		-0.12	0.04	-0.01	3.88	239	54	20-4	13
47	47	Bucknell	PATRIOT	12	Auto		-0.36	-0.62	-0.01	4.64	182	87	21-5	13
48	48	Kentucky	SEC	12	At-Large	Yes	-0.44	-0.35	-0.02	7.56	66	21	18-8	NULL
49	49	Temple	A-10	13	At-Large	Yes	-0.50	-0.56	-0.02	7.50	68	73	17-8	NULL
50	50	Iowa State	BIG12	NULL	At-Large	Yes	-0.63	0.69	-0.02	7.37	73	42	18-8	11
51	51	Mississippi	SEC	NULL	At-Large	Yes	-0.64	-0.72	-0.02	6.36	101	31	19-7	11
52	52	Stephen F. Austin	SLAND	13	Auto		-0.65	-0.75	-0.03	2.35	338	80	18-3	NULL
59	53	Belmont	OVC	13	Auto		-1.14	-0.76	-0.05	4.86	164	55	19-6	12
67	54	Harvard	IVY	13	Auto		-2.09	0.16	-0.10	4.91	161	96	14-7	14
77	55	North Dakota State	SUMMIT	14	Auto		-2.60	-0.92	-0.10	4.40	204	57	18-7	NULL
79	56	Stony Brook	A-EAST	14	Auto		-2.62	0.08	-0.10	3.38	285	100	19-6	14
82	57	Davidson	SOUTHERN	14	Auto		-2.76	0.27	-0.11	4.24	216	78	19-7	14
85	58	Denver	WAC	14	Auto		-2.89	0.42	-0.12	5.11	152	62	17-8	NULL
87	59	Detroit	HORIZON	15	Auto		-2.96	0.54	-0.12	6.04	114	52	16-9	NULL
88	60	Weber State	BIGSKY	15	Auto		-3.00	0.07	-0.14	2.00	346	124	17-5	NULL
114	61	Bryant	NEC	15	Auto		-4.58	-1.75	-0.19	3.42	283	175	16-8	NULL
116	62	Florida Gulf Coast	A-SUN	15	Auto		-4.75	-0.90	-0.18	4.25	215	169	17-9	NULL
119	63	North Carolina Central	MEAC	16	Auto		-4.89	-0.90	-0.21	3.11	305	191	15-8	NULL
137	64	Pacific	BIGWEST	16	Auto		-5.64	-0.74	-0.24	5.36	142	141	13-11	NULL
138	65	Charleston Southern	BIGSOUTH	16	Auto	Yes	-5.72	0.20	-0.27	3.28	292	145	12-9	NULL
154	66	George Mason	CAA	16	Auto	Yes	-6.59	-0.70	-0.24	4.41	203	143	16-11	NULL
180	67	Iona	MAAC	NULL	Auto	Yes	-7.54	-1.57	-0.28	4.46	200	110	15-12	NULL
193	68	Texas Southern	SWAC	NULL	Auto	Yes	-8.45	0.01	-0.31	5.55	131	202	13-14	NULL
53	NULL	Boise State	MWC	NULL	Out		-0.67	-0.17	-0.03	7.33	75	71	15-8	NULL
54	NULL	Arizona State	PAC12	NULL	Out		-0.71	0.77	-0.03	6.29	106	68	20-7	11
55	NULL	Southern Mississippi	C-USA	NULL	Out		-0.75	0.35	-0.03	5.25	147	89	19-6	NULL
56	NULL	California	PAC12	NULL	Out		-0.78	0.45	-0.03	8.22	35	64	16-9	12
57	NULL	Charlotte	A-10	NULL	Out		-0.93	-0.22	-0.04	6.07	113	101	18-7	NULL
58	NULL	Villanova	BIGEAST	NULL	Out		-0.93	0.81	-0.04	9.07	16	49	16-10	12
60	NULL	Virginia	ACC	NULL	Out		-1.54	-0.55	-0.06	6.46	96	46	18-8	11
61	NULL	Maryland	ACC	NULL	Out		-1.54	0.06	-0.06	6.46	97	61	18-8	NULL
62	NULL	Alabama	SEC	NULL	Out		-1.60	0.09	-0.06	6.40	99	70	17-8	NULL
63	NULL	Wyoming	MWC	NULL	Out		-1.66	-0.17	-0.07	6.34	103	53	16-8	NULL
64	NULL	Valparaiso	HORIZON	NULL	Out		-1.88	-0.52	-0.07	5.12	151	65	20-7	14
65	NULL	Arkansas	SEC	NULL	Out		-1.91	0.40	-0.08	7.09	82	50	16-9	NULL
66	NULL	Brigham Young	WCC	NULL	Out		-2.07	0.03	-0.08	5.93	117	48	18-8	NULL
68	NULL	Northern Iowa	MVC	NULL	Out		-2.09	0.44	-0.08	8.91	20	63	16-11	NULL
69	NULL	Air Force	MWC	NULL	Out		-2.16	-0.97	-0.09	7.84	56	94	13-10	NULL
70	NULL	Montana	BIGSKY	NULL	Out		-2.17	-0.65	-0.10	2.83	318	180	17-5	15
71	NULL	Baylor	BIG12	NULL	Out		-2.17	-1.04	-0.09	7.83	57	38	15-10	11
72	NULL	St. John's (NY)	BIGEAST	NULL	Out		-2.17	0.01	-0.08	7.83	58	82	16-10	NULL
73	NULL	Ohio	MAC	NULL	Out		-2.23	0.08	-0.09	3.77	246	81	20-6	NULL
74	NULL	Tennessee	SEC	NULL	Out		-2.36	0.55	-0.09	7.64	63	59	15-10	NULL
75	NULL	Utah State	WAC	NULL	Out		-2.36	-0.59	-0.10	3.64	261	116	17-6	NULL
76	NULL	Eastern Kentucky	OVC	NULL	Out		-2.52	0.07	-0.10	3.48	279	123	20-6	NULL
78	NULL	Massachusetts	A-10	NULL	Out		-2.62	-1.67	-0.10	6.38	100	95	16-9	NULL
80	NULL	Stanford	PAC12	NULL	Out		-2.65	-1.55	-0.10	8.35	32	45	15-11	NULL
81	NULL	Indiana State	MVC	NULL	Out		-2.73	-1.29	-0.11	8.27	34	79	15-11	NULL
83	NULL	Lehigh	PATRIOT	NULL	Out		-2.86	-1.75	-0.12	4.14	218	132	17-7	NULL
84	NULL	Santa Clara	WCC	NULL	Out		-2.86	-0.02	-0.11	6.14	111	72	17-9	NULL
86	NULL	Northwestern State	SLAND	NULL	Out		-2.92	0.20	-0.14	3.08	306	139	15-6	15
89	NULL	Louisiana State	SEC	NULL	Out		-3.01	-0.21	-0.13	5.99	116	115	15-9	NULL
90	NULL	College of Charleston	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-3.04	-0.72	-0.11	3.96	230	151	20-7	NULL
91	NULL	Texas A&M	SEC	NULL	Out		-3.05	-0.45	-0.12	6.95	89	111	16-10	NULL
92	NULL	South Dakota State	SUMMIT	NULL	Out		-3.11	-0.83	-0.12	4.89	162	104	18-8	13
93	NULL	Western Illinois	SUMMIT	NULL	Out		-3.17	-0.05	-0.14	2.83	319	150	17-6	NULL
94	NULL	Florida State	ACC	NULL	Out		-3.21	-0.14	-0.12	8.79	22	107	14-12	NULL
95	NULL	Long Beach State	BIGWEST	NULL	Out		-3.28	0.06	-0.14	5.72	127	144	15-9	15
96	NULL	Rutgers	BIGEAST	NULL	Out		-3.30	-1.06	-0.13	8.70	25	117	13-12	NULL
97	NULL	Providence	BIGEAST	NULL	Out		-3.30	0.20	-0.13	8.70	26	58	14-12	NULL
98	NULL	Murray State	OVC	NULL	Out		-3.43	-1.78	-0.14	3.57	267	113	17-7	NULL
99	NULL	Northwestern	BIG10	NULL	Out		-3.44	-1.08	-0.13	10.56	4	90	13-14	NULL
100	NULL	Saint Joseph's	A-10	NULL	Out		-3.64	-0.43	-0.15	6.36	102	83	14-10	NULL
101	NULL	Xavier	A-10	NULL	Out		-3.75	-0.25	-0.15	6.25	107	67	15-10	NULL
102	NULL	Washington	PAC12	NULL	Out		-3.75	-0.04	-0.14	9.25	15	85	14-13	NULL
103	NULL	Richmond	A-10	NULL	Out		-3.85	0.12	-0.15	7.15	81	99	15-11	NULL
104	NULL	New Mexico State	WAC	NULL	Out		-4.18	-0.58	-0.16	4.82	169	77	17-9	NULL
105	NULL	Nebraska	BIG10	NULL	Out		-4.24	-0.44	-0.16	9.76	7	122	12-14	NULL
106	NULL	Purdue	BIG10	NULL	Out		-4.29	-0.05	-0.17	9.71	8	75	12-14	NULL
107	NULL	Central Florida	C-USA	NULL	Out		-4.35	-1.60	-0.17	4.65	181	121	16-9	NULL
108	NULL	Georgia Tech	ACC	NULL	Out		-4.38	-1.23	-0.18	6.62	93	86	14-11	NULL
109	NULL	Western Michigan	MAC	NULL	Out		-4.43	0.01	-0.18	4.57	189	137	15-9	NULL
110	NULL	Wright State	HORIZON	NULL	Out		-4.49	0.11	-0.17	4.51	196	133	17-9	NULL
111	NULL	Dayton	A-10	NULL	Out		-4.55	0.21	-0.18	6.45	98	69	14-11	NULL
112	NULL	Illinois State	MVC	NULL	Out		-4.57	-1.24	-0.16	7.43	71	60	16-12	NULL
113	NULL	Southern California	PAC12	NULL	Out		-4.58	0.17	-0.18	9.42	11	92	12-14	NULL
115	NULL	Canisius	MAAC	NULL	Out		-4.60	-0.68	-0.17	5.40	137	125	17-10	NULL
117	NULL	West Virginia	BIG12	NULL	Out		-4.84	-0.30	-0.19	8.16	40	84	13-13	NULL
118	NULL	Texas	BIG12	NULL	Out		-4.89	-0.08	-0.20	8.11	42	105	12-13	NULL
120	NULL	Clemson	ACC	NULL	Out		-4.94	-0.08	-0.20	7.06	85	76	13-12	NULL
121	NULL	Elon	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-5.04	0.04	-0.21	2.96	313	172	16-8	NULL
122	NULL	Texas-Arlington	WAC	NULL	Out		-5.04	0.34	-0.21	3.96	232	183	15-9	NULL
123	NULL	Savannah State	MEAC	NULL	Out		-5.16	0.08	-0.22	4.84	167	259	14-10	NULL
124	NULL	Georgia	SEC	NULL	Out		-5.23	-0.29	-0.21	7.77	61	131	12-13	NULL
125	NULL	Loyola (MD)	MAAC	NULL	Out		-5.23	0.15	-0.19	3.77	247	142	19-9	NULL
126	NULL	Oral Roberts	SLAND	NULL	Out		-5.33	0.05	-0.20	4.67	177	138	16-10	NULL
127	NULL	Tulane	C-USA	NULL	Out		-5.33	0.04	-0.21	3.67	259	152	16-9	NULL
128	NULL	Seton Hall	BIGEAST	NULL	Out		-5.35	-0.96	-0.20	8.65	27	114	13-14	NULL
129	NULL	Southern	SWAC	NULL	Out		-5.37	0.01	-0.22	2.63	330	220	16-8	16
130	NULL	Vermont	A-EAST	NULL	Out		-5.38	-0.59	-0.21	3.62	262	147	17-9	NULL
131	NULL	Tennessee State	OVC	NULL	Out		-5.47	0.29	-0.22	5.53	132	177	14-11	NULL
132	NULL	Mercer	A-SUN	NULL	Out		-5.51	0.17	-0.22	3.49	276	201	16-9	16
133	NULL	Evansville	MVC	NULL	Out		-5.54	-0.34	-0.21	7.46	69	97	14-13	NULL
134	NULL	Princeton	IVY	NULL	Out		-5.59	-0.56	-0.28	3.41	284	98	11-9	NULL
135	NULL	Texas-El Paso	C-USA	NULL	Out		-5.60	-0.45	-0.22	5.40	139	119	14-11	NULL
136	NULL	St. Bonaventure	A-10	NULL	Out		-5.61	-0.48	-0.22	7.39	72	109	12-13	NULL
139	NULL	Arkansas State	SUNBELT	NULL	Out		-5.96	0.07	-0.24	3.04	309	106	16-9	NULL
140	NULL	East Carolina	C-USA	NULL	Out		-5.99	-0.69	-0.29	4.01	226	156	11-10	NULL
141	NULL	Albany (NY)	A-EAST	NULL	Out		-6.03	-0.74	-0.22	2.97	311	170	19-9	NULL
142	NULL	Oregon State	PAC12	NULL	Out		-6.11	-0.54	-0.24	6.89	90	102	13-13	NULL
143	NULL	Bradley	MVC	NULL	Out		-6.13	-0.54	-0.22	6.87	91	118	15-13	NULL
144	NULL	Robert Morris	NEC	NULL	Out		-6.14	-0.82	-0.23	2.86	317	200	18-9	16
145	NULL	Green Bay	HORIZON	NULL	Out		-6.17	0.36	-0.24	5.83	121	108	14-12	NULL
146	NULL	George Washington	A-10	NULL	Out		-6.25	-0.21	-0.26	5.75	124	91	12-12	NULL
147	NULL	Norfolk State	MEAC	NULL	Out		-6.30	0.05	-0.23	3.70	256	231	17-10	16
148	NULL	Fairfield	MAAC	NULL	Out		-6.34	0.13	-0.23	4.66	180	128	17-11	NULL
149	NULL	South Alabama	SUNBELT	NULL	Out		-6.34	0.04	-0.28	2.66	327	168	14-9	NULL
150	NULL	Northeastern	CAA	NULL	Out		-6.40	-0.89	-0.23	3.60	263	157	18-10	16
151	NULL	Wagner	NEC	NULL	Out		-6.41	0.08	-0.26	3.59	265	215	15-10	NULL
152	NULL	Virginia Tech	ACC	NULL	Out		-6.41	-0.33	-0.26	7.59	65	161	11-14	NULL
153	NULL	Nevada	MWC	NULL	Out		-6.53	-0.92	-0.27	6.47	95	103	11-13	NULL
155	NULL	Toledo	MAC	NULL	Out		-6.62	0.10	-0.29	4.38	208	181	12-11	NULL
156	NULL	Delaware	CAA	NULL	Out		-6.70	-0.94	-0.25	6.30	104	146	14-13	NULL
157	NULL	Illinois-Chicago	HORIZON	NULL	Out		-6.70	-1.70	-0.26	5.30	144	190	14-12	NULL
158	NULL	Niagara	MAAC	NULL	Out		-6.70	0.22	-0.25	4.30	210	135	16-11	15
159	NULL	Jacksonville State	OVC	NULL	Out		-6.77	-1.54	-0.28	3.23	296	210	14-10	NULL
160	NULL	Drake	MVC	NULL	Out		-6.84	-0.67	-0.26	8.16	41	130	11-15	NULL
161	NULL	Wake Forest	ACC	NULL	Out		-6.85	-0.84	-0.27	7.15	80	134	11-14	NULL
162	NULL	Oakland	SUMMIT	NULL	Out		-6.93	-0.78	-0.26	7.07	84	163	13-14	NULL
163	NULL	DePaul	BIGEAST	NULL	Out		-7.04	-0.16	-0.27	7.96	52	112	11-15	NULL
164	NULL	Boston College	ACC	NULL	Out		-7.05	-0.41	-0.27	6.95	88	74	12-14	NULL
165	NULL	Gardner-Webb	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-7.08	0.13	-0.28	3.92	234	184	14-11	NULL
166	NULL	South Florida	BIGEAST	NULL	Out		-7.11	-0.83	-0.27	8.89	21	120	10-16	NULL
167	NULL	Vanderbilt	SEC	NULL	Out		-7.12	-0.12	-0.28	7.88	55	127	10-15	NULL
168	NULL	Hawaii	BIGWEST	NULL	Out		-7.23	-1.57	-0.29	3.77	248	185	14-11	NULL
169	NULL	Boston University	A-EAST	NULL	Out		-7.24	0.08	-0.27	3.76	249	159	16-11	NULL
170	NULL	Tulsa	C-USA	NULL	Out		-7.26	-0.89	-0.29	4.74	173	206	13-12	NULL
171	NULL	South Carolina	SEC	NULL	Out		-7.28	-0.99	-0.28	5.72	125	174	13-13	NULL
172	NULL	Cornell	IVY	NULL	Out		-7.32	0.26	-0.31	4.68	176	196	12-12	NULL
173	NULL	Florida International	SUNBELT	NULL	Out		-7.45	-0.86	-0.29	4.55	190	207	14-12	NULL
174	NULL	Utah	PAC12	NULL	Out		-7.48	-0.45	-0.33	6.52	94	136	9-14	NULL
175	NULL	Cal Poly	BIGWEST	NULL	Out		-7.48	-0.80	-0.34	4.52	191	154	10-12	NULL
176	NULL	Youngstown State	HORIZON	NULL	Out		-7.48	-0.87	-0.31	4.52	192	148	12-12	NULL
177	NULL	Penn State	BIG10	NULL	Out		-7.49	-0.68	-0.30	9.51	10	126	8-17	NULL
178	NULL	Arkansas-Little Rock	SUNBELT	NULL	Out		-7.49	-1.41	-0.29	4.51	195	225	14-12	NULL
179	NULL	Houston	C-USA	NULL	Out		-7.52	-1.25	-0.31	2.48	335	208	14-10	NULL
181	NULL	San Francisco	WCC	NULL	Out		-7.56	-1.31	-0.31	7.44	70	129	9-15	NULL
182	NULL	High Point	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-7.69	0.13	-0.32	2.31	340	219	14-10	16
183	NULL	San Diego	WCC	NULL	Out		-7.71	-0.47	-0.31	6.29	105	195	11-14	NULL
184	NULL	Kent State	MAC	NULL	Out		-7.88	-0.53	-0.32	4.12	220	155	13-12	NULL
185	NULL	Fresno State	MWC	NULL	Out		-8.02	-0.05	-0.35	7.98	48	140	7-16	NULL
186	NULL	Pepperdine	WCC	NULL	Out		-8.13	-0.43	-0.33	5.87	119	189	11-14	NULL
187	NULL	North Carolina-Asheville	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-8.14	-1.81	-0.33	4.86	166	176	12-13	NULL
188	NULL	Mount St. Mary's	NEC	NULL	Out		-8.25	0.08	-0.33	4.75	172	221	12-13	NULL
189	NULL	California-Irvine	BIGWEST	NULL	Out		-8.36	0.12	-0.32	4.64	183	187	13-13	NULL
190	NULL	Towson	CAA	NULL	Out		-8.36	0.04	-0.31	4.64	184	178	14-13	NULL
191	NULL	Washington State	PAC12	NULL	Out		-8.37	-1.13	-0.31	7.63	64	93	11-16	NULL
192	NULL	Long Island University	NEC	NULL	Out		-8.38	0.06	-0.32	2.62	331	186	15-11	NULL
194	NULL	Southern Illinois	MVC	NULL	Out		-8.47	-0.19	-0.33	7.53	67	153	10-16	NULL
195	NULL	Hartford	A-EAST	NULL	Out		-8.47	-0.77	-0.31	3.53	272	227	15-12	NULL
196	NULL	Delaware State	MEAC	NULL	Out		-8.49	0.03	-0.37	4.51	193	283	10-13	NULL
197	NULL	Loyola (IL)	HORIZON	NULL	Out		-8.50	-0.73	-0.33	4.50	197	158	13-13	NULL
198	NULL	Alabama-Birmingham	C-USA	NULL	Out		-8.53	0.01	-0.34	5.47	134	166	11-14	NULL
199	NULL	NJIT	GWC	NULL	Out		-8.53	0.01	-0.41	2.47	336	284	10-11	NULL
200	NULL	Southeastern Louisiana	SLAND	NULL	Out		-8.63	-1.70	-0.39	5.37	141	287	8-14	NULL
201	NULL	Western Kentucky	SUNBELT	NULL	Out		-8.69	-1.78	-0.33	5.31	143	164	12-14	NULL
202	NULL	Eastern Michigan	MAC	NULL	Out		-8.71	-0.43	-0.38	5.29	145	293	9-14	NULL
203	NULL	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	SWAC	NULL	Out		-8.74	-0.83	-0.32	5.26	146	319	13-14	NULL
204	NULL	Texas Tech	BIG12	NULL	Out		-8.76	-1.30	-0.37	6.24	108	198	9-15	NULL
205	NULL	Sam Houston State	SLAND	NULL	Out		-8.80	-1.51	-0.38	3.20	300	243	11-12	NULL
206	NULL	Lafayette	PATRIOT	NULL	Out		-9.02	0.26	-0.33	4.98	157	238	13-14	NULL
207	NULL	Columbia	IVY	NULL	Out		-9.14	-1.74	-0.46	2.86	316	160	8-12	NULL
208	NULL	Rider	MAAC	NULL	Out		-9.18	0.04	-0.33	3.82	242	203	15-13	NULL
209	NULL	Marshall	C-USA	NULL	Out		-9.28	-0.41	-0.36	5.72	126	173	11-15	NULL
210	NULL	McNeese State	SLAND	NULL	Out		-9.28	0.03	-0.44	3.72	252	297	8-13	NULL
211	NULL	Coastal Carolina	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-9.34	-0.90	-0.42	2.66	326	230	10-12	NULL
212	NULL	Yale	IVY	NULL	Out		-9.37	-0.89	-0.41	5.63	129	205	8-15	NULL
213	NULL	James Madison	CAA	NULL	Out		-9.40	-0.51	-0.32	3.60	264	165	16-13	NULL
214	NULL	Cal State Fullerton	BIGWEST	NULL	Out		-9.47	-0.76	-0.39	3.53	271	188	11-13	NULL
215	NULL	Brown	IVY	NULL	Out		-9.51	-0.89	-0.45	3.49	275	226	8-13	NULL
216	NULL	Cal State Northridge	BIGWEST	NULL	Out		-9.72	-1.57	-0.39	4.28	211	209	11-14	NULL
217	NULL	California-Davis	BIGWEST	NULL	Out		-9.72	-0.66	-0.39	4.28	212	194	11-14	NULL
218	NULL	Auburn	SEC	NULL	Out		-9.73	-1.05	-0.37	7.27	77	149	9-17	NULL
219	NULL	Southern Methodist	C-USA	NULL	Out		-9.78	-0.76	-0.39	3.22	298	214	12-13	NULL
220	NULL	Cleveland State	HORIZON	NULL	Out		-9.91	-1.78	-0.38	6.09	112	232	10-16	NULL
221	NULL	Morehead State	OVC	NULL	Out		-9.93	-0.83	-0.38	5.07	154	228	11-15	NULL
222	NULL	Texas Christian	BIG12	NULL	Out		-9.98	-1.23	-0.40	6.02	115	234	9-16	NULL
223	NULL	Mississippi State	SEC	NULL	Out		-10.02	-1.12	-0.40	7.98	49	213	7-18	NULL
224	NULL	South Carolina Upstate	A-SUN	NULL	Out		-10.04	-0.95	-0.39	3.96	231	211	12-14	NULL
225	NULL	Portland	WCC	NULL	Out		-10.06	-0.12	-0.39	7.94	54	222	8-18	NULL
226	NULL	Ball State	MAC	NULL	Out		-10.08	-0.99	-0.44	3.92	235	246	9-14	NULL
227	NULL	Sacramento State	BIGSKY	NULL	Out		-10.15	-1.86	-0.46	1.85	347	267	10-12	NULL
228	NULL	Rhode Island	A-10	NULL	Out		-10.21	-0.62	-0.41	6.79	92	162	8-17	NULL
229	NULL	Army	PATRIOT	NULL	Out		-10.26	0.05	-0.41	2.74	323	182	12-13	NULL
230	NULL	Central Connecticut State	NEC	NULL	Out		-10.28	-1.75	-0.43	3.72	251	244	10-14	NULL
231	NULL	Southeast Missouri State	OVC	NULL	Out		-10.42	-0.83	-0.40	3.58	266	240	12-14	NULL
232	NULL	Jacksonville	A-SUN	NULL	Out		-10.46	0.02	-0.42	3.54	270	278	11-14	NULL
233	NULL	Quinnipiac	NEC	NULL	Out		-10.48	0.05	-0.42	2.52	333	229	12-13	NULL
234	NULL	Cal State Bakersfield	INDEP	NULL	Out		-10.48	-0.85	-0.44	5.52	133	255	8-16	NULL
235	NULL	Stetson	A-SUN	NULL	Out		-10.49	0.10	-0.42	3.51	273	258	11-14	NULL
236	NULL	North Dakota	BIGSKY	NULL	Out		-10.53	-0.90	-0.44	3.47	281	270	10-14	NULL
237	NULL	Drexel	CAA	NULL	Out		-10.61	-0.92	-0.41	4.39	206	171	11-15	NULL
238	NULL	William & Mary	CAA	NULL	Out		-10.66	0.16	-0.43	3.34	289	193	11-14	NULL
239	NULL	Buffalo	MAC	NULL	Out		-10.72	0.08	-0.45	4.28	213	199	9-15	NULL
240	NULL	Loyola Marymount	WCC	NULL	Out		-10.77	-1.36	-0.45	6.23	109	204	7-17	NULL
241	NULL	Bowling Green State	MAC	NULL	Out		-10.84	-0.42	-0.47	4.16	217	216	8-15	NULL
242	NULL	Idaho	WAC	NULL	Out		-10.86	-1.79	-0.45	5.14	149	167	8-16	NULL
243	NULL	Lipscomb	A-SUN	NULL	Out		-10.88	-0.92	-0.45	4.12	221	306	9-15	NULL
244	NULL	Duquesne	A-10	NULL	Out		-10.92	-0.76	-0.42	7.08	83	192	8-18	NULL
245	NULL	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	NULL	Out		-10.95	-1.90	-0.42	3.05	308	281	12-14	NULL
246	NULL	Florida Atlantic	SUNBELT	NULL	Out		-10.96	-0.80	-0.41	5.04	156	264	11-16	NULL
247	NULL	Manhattan	MAAC	NULL	Out		-11.08	-0.80	-0.43	4.92	159	217	10-16	NULL
248	NULL	Georgia State	CAA	NULL	Out		-11.08	-0.58	-0.40	3.92	236	179	13-15	NULL
249	NULL	Winthrop	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-11.09	-1.80	-0.48	3.91	238	279	8-15	NULL
250	NULL	California-Santa Barbara	BIGWEST	NULL	Out		-11.17	-1.71	-0.49	5.83	122	224	6-17	NULL
251	NULL	Morgan State	MEAC	NULL	Out		-11.23	-0.92	-0.49	2.77	322	248	9-14	NULL
252	NULL	Holy Cross	PATRIOT	NULL	Out		-11.29	-1.88	-0.43	3.71	255	242	11-15	NULL
253	NULL	Campbell	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-11.32	0.10	-0.45	3.68	258	286	10-15	NULL
254	NULL	Central Michigan	MAC	NULL	Out		-11.34	-0.95	-0.47	4.66	179	237	8-16	NULL
255	NULL	Northern Arizona	BIGSKY	NULL	Out		-11.37	-0.86	-0.44	4.63	186	280	10-16	NULL
256	NULL	Miami (OH)	MAC	NULL	Out		-11.38	-0.96	-0.49	4.62	187	263	7-16	NULL
257	NULL	Houston Baptist	GWC	NULL	Out		-11.49	0.03	-0.55	2.51	334	332	7-14	NULL
258	NULL	New Orleans	INDEP	NULL	Out		-11.57	NULL	-0.64	2.43	337	339	4-14	NULL
259	NULL	Southern Utah	BIGSKY	NULL	Out		-11.58	-1.88	-0.50	3.42	282	312	8-15	NULL
260	NULL	American	PATRIOT	NULL	Out		-11.60	-0.95	-0.45	4.40	205	245	10-16	NULL
261	NULL	North Florida	A-SUN	NULL	Out		-11.62	-0.94	-0.45	5.38	140	253	9-17	NULL
262	NULL	St. Francis (NY)	NEC	NULL	Out		-11.65	-0.93	-0.47	3.35	287	235	10-15	NULL
263	NULL	Virginia Military Institute	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-11.69	-1.91	-0.53	2.31	339	250	8-14	NULL
264	NULL	Northern Kentucky	A-SUN	NULL	Out		-11.72	-1.92	-0.53	2.28	342	285	8-14	NULL
265	NULL	Utah Valley	GWC	NULL	Out		-11.74	-0.94	-0.51	2.26	343	301	9-14	NULL
266	NULL	San Jose State	WAC	NULL	Out		-11.74	-1.59	-0.49	4.26	214	266	8-16	NULL
267	NULL	Sacred Heart	NEC	NULL	Out		-11.75	-1.95	-0.49	3.25	294	269	9-15	NULL
268	NULL	Southern Illinois-Edwardsville	OVC	NULL	Out		-11.78	-1.82	-0.54	3.22	297	298	7-15	NULL
269	NULL	Appalachian State	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-11.82	-1.72	-0.47	3.18	302	282	10-15	NULL
270	NULL	Montana State	BIGSKY	NULL	Out		-11.90	-1.65	-0.54	2.10	344	275	8-14	NULL
271	NULL	Hampton	MEAC	NULL	Out		-11.97	-0.96	-0.48	2.03	345	302	11-14	NULL
272	NULL	Fordham	A-10	NULL	Out		-12.01	-1.24	-0.44	8.99	17	241	6-21	NULL
273	NULL	IPFW	SUMMIT	NULL	Out		-12.09	0.20	-0.45	3.91	237	254	11-16	NULL
274	NULL	Western Carolina	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-12.09	-1.66	-0.46	4.91	160	260	9-17	NULL
275	NULL	Samford	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-12.12	0.04	-0.47	4.88	163	292	9-17	NULL
276	NULL	Neb. Omaha	SUMMIT	NULL	Out		-12.14	0.01	-0.47	4.86	165	311	9-17	NULL
277	NULL	Tennessee Tech	OVC	NULL	Out		-12.17	-1.57	-0.53	3.83	240	271	7-16	NULL
278	NULL	Missouri State	MVC	NULL	Out		-12.20	-1.54	-0.47	7.80	59	197	6-20	NULL
279	NULL	Jackson State	SWAC	NULL	Out		-12.29	0.00	-0.53	3.71	253	334	7-16	NULL
280	NULL	Northern Colorado	BIGSKY	NULL	Out		-12.29	-0.95	-0.53	3.71	254	274	7-16	NULL
281	NULL	Bethune-Cookman	MEAC	NULL	Out		-12.31	0.01	-0.51	3.69	257	289	8-16	NULL
282	NULL	Louisiana-Lafayette	SUNBELT	NULL	Out		-12.34	-0.77	-0.47	4.66	178	212	9-17	NULL
283	NULL	Texas-Pan American	GWC	NULL	Out		-12.36	-1.79	-0.51	2.64	329	327	9-15	NULL
284	NULL	Nicholls State	SLAND	NULL	Out		-12.40	-1.73	-0.52	4.60	188	251	7-17	NULL
285	NULL	Dartmouth	IVY	NULL	Out		-12.46	-1.84	-0.59	3.54	269	303	5-16	NULL
286	NULL	North Texas	SUNBELT	NULL	Out		-12.49	-0.88	-0.48	4.51	194	218	9-17	NULL
287	NULL	Wofford	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-12.51	-0.93	-0.46	4.49	199	272	10-17	NULL
288	NULL	Colgate	PATRIOT	NULL	Out		-12.55	-0.73	-0.45	5.45	135	261	10-18	NULL
289	NULL	South Dakota	SUMMIT	NULL	Out		-12.59	-1.92	-0.52	5.41	136	239	6-18	NULL
290	NULL	North Carolina-Wilmington	CAA	NULL	Out		-12.59	-0.82	-0.48	4.41	201	295	9-17	NULL
291	NULL	Georgia Southern	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-12.67	-0.73	-0.51	3.33	290	307	9-16	NULL
292	NULL	Central Arkansas	SLAND	NULL	Out		-12.70	-2.70	-0.55	3.30	291	305	7-16	NULL
293	NULL	Maine	A-EAST	NULL	Out		-12.74	-0.74	-0.49	3.26	293	256	10-16	NULL
294	NULL	Chattanooga	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-12.93	-0.93	-0.52	3.07	307	291	9-16	NULL
295	NULL	Monmouth	NEC	NULL	Out		-12.99	-0.93	-0.48	4.01	225	294	10-17	NULL
296	NULL	Pennsylvania	IVY	NULL	Out		-13.04	-0.56	-0.54	4.96	158	236	6-18	NULL
297	NULL	Alabama A&M	SWAC	NULL	Out		-13.11	-0.86	-0.57	2.89	314	341	7-16	NULL
298	NULL	Radford	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-13.19	-1.97	-0.53	2.81	320	265	9-16	NULL
299	NULL	Troy	SUNBELT	NULL	Out		-13.20	-0.93	-0.49	2.80	321	262	11-16	NULL
300	NULL	Chicago State	GWC	NULL	Out		-13.24	-0.96	-0.60	4.76	171	328	4-18	NULL
301	NULL	Portland State	BIGSKY	NULL	Out		-13.33	0.02	-0.63	2.67	325	273	5-16	NULL
302	NULL	Prairie View	SWAC	NULL	Out		-13.35	-0.99	-0.56	2.65	328	340	8-16	NULL
303	NULL	Seattle	WAC	NULL	Out		-13.36	-1.79	-0.56	4.64	185	223	6-18	NULL
304	NULL	Tennessee-Martin	OVC	NULL	Out		-13.86	-0.97	-0.60	4.14	219	322	5-18	NULL
305	NULL	Alabama State	SWAC	NULL	Out		-14.06	-0.86	-0.54	3.94	233	333	8-18	NULL
306	NULL	East Tennessee State	A-SUN	NULL	Out		-14.17	-0.95	-0.52	4.83	168	315	8-19	NULL
307	NULL	Texas-San Antonio	WAC	NULL	Out		-14.21	0.09	-0.57	4.79	170	257	6-19	NULL
308	NULL	New Hampshire	A-EAST	NULL	Out		-14.43	-1.66	-0.60	3.57	268	247	6-18	NULL
309	NULL	Louisiana-Monroe	SUNBELT	NULL	Out		-14.52	-0.84	-0.66	3.48	277	313	4-18	NULL
310	NULL	Texas State	WAC	NULL	Out		-14.67	-0.98	-0.59	4.33	209	252	6-19	NULL
311	NULL	Saint Peter's	MAAC	NULL	Out		-14.82	-1.75	-0.57	3.18	303	277	8-18	NULL
312	NULL	Eastern Washington	BIGSKY	NULL	Out		-14.87	-0.92	-0.57	3.13	304	296	8-18	NULL
313	NULL	Alcorn State	SWAC	NULL	Out		-14.92	-1.99	-0.53	5.08	153	336	8-20	NULL
314	NULL	Northern Illinois	MAC	NULL	Out		-15.00	-0.73	-0.65	4.00	228	308	4-19	NULL
315	NULL	Rice	C-USA	NULL	Out		-15.00	-0.79	-0.65	4.00	229	323	4-19	NULL
316	NULL	Eastern Illinois	OVC	NULL	Out		-15.22	-1.63	-0.56	3.78	244	290	8-19	NULL
317	NULL	North Carolina-Greensboro	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-15.32	-1.96	-0.67	2.68	324	268	5-18	NULL
318	NULL	South Carolina State	MEAC	NULL	Out		-15.53	-0.94	-0.71	3.47	280	345	3-19	NULL
319	NULL	Howard	MEAC	NULL	Out		-15.59	-1.92	-0.62	4.41	202	317	5-20	NULL
320	NULL	Missouri-Kansas City	SUMMIT	NULL	Out		-15.60	-1.92	-0.58	5.40	138	316	6-21	NULL
321	NULL	Marist	MAAC	NULL	Out		-15.61	-1.77	-0.58	4.39	207	249	7-20	NULL
322	NULL	Florida A&M	MEAC	NULL	Out		-15.63	-0.97	-0.65	3.37	286	330	5-19	NULL
323	NULL	Citadel	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-15.66	-1.74	-0.65	3.34	288	329	5-19	NULL
324	NULL	California-Riverside	BIGWEST	NULL	Out		-15.77	-0.72	-0.69	3.23	295	300	4-19	NULL
325	NULL	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	SLAND	NULL	Out		-15.96	-1.62	-0.69	4.04	223	299	3-20	NULL
326	NULL	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	NULL	Out		-16.00	-1.80	-0.59	4.00	227	337	7-20	NULL
327	NULL	Liberty	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-16.03	-1.95	-0.64	2.97	312	310	6-19	NULL
328	NULL	Milwaukee	HORIZON	NULL	Out		-16.16	-1.60	-0.60	5.84	120	276	5-22	NULL
329	NULL	Maryland-Baltimore County	A-EAST	NULL	Out		-16.21	-0.61	-0.65	3.79	243	325	5-20	NULL
330	NULL	IUPUI	SUMMIT	NULL	Out		-16.32	-1.05	-0.63	5.68	128	314	4-22	NULL
331	NULL	Presbyterian	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-16.51	-0.73	-0.66	4.49	198	335	4-21	NULL
332	NULL	Navy	PATRIOT	NULL	Out		-16.70	-0.92	-0.64	2.30	341	326	7-19	NULL
333	NULL	Idaho State	BIGSKY	NULL	Out		-16.79	-0.93	-0.70	3.21	299	318	4-20	NULL
334	NULL	Mississippi Valley State	SWAC	NULL	Out		-16.91	-1.83	-0.68	4.09	222	346	4-21	NULL
335	NULL	Coppin State	MEAC	NULL	Out		-16.94	-1.92	-0.65	5.06	155	324	4-22	NULL
336	NULL	Austin Peay	OVC	NULL	Out		-16.98	-0.57	-0.65	4.02	224	304	5-21	NULL
337	NULL	Furman	SOUTHERN	NULL	Out		-17.13	-2.44	-0.71	2.87	315	331	4-20	NULL
338	NULL	Maryland-Eastern Shore	MEAC	NULL	Out		-17.18	-1.96	-0.75	3.82	241	342	2-21	NULL
339	NULL	Longwood	BIGSOUTH	NULL	Out		-17.27	0.03	-0.66	4.73	174	338	4-22	NULL
340	NULL	Lamar	SLAND	NULL	Out		-17.41	-1.97	-0.67	5.59	130	343	3-23	NULL
341	NULL	Siena	MAAC	NULL	Out		-17.52	-1.62	-0.65	3.48	278	288	6-21	NULL
342	NULL	Hofstra	CAA	NULL	Out		-18.23	-2.67	-0.68	3.77	245	309	5-22	NULL
343	NULL	Saint Francis (PA)	NEC	NULL	Out		-18.82	-0.82	-0.75	3.18	301	321	3-22	NULL
344	NULL	Old Dominion	CAA	NULL	Out		-19.25	-0.94	-0.71	3.75	250	233	4-23	NULL
345	NULL	Kennesaw State	A-SUN	NULL	Out		-19.34	-1.83	-0.74	3.66	260	320	3-23	NULL
346	NULL	Binghamton	A-EAST	NULL	Out		-19.50	-0.98	-0.78	3.50	274	344	2-23	NULL
347	NULL	Grambling	SWAC	NULL	Out		-20.40	-0.98	-0.89	2.60	332	347	0-23	NULL

Simulation

How teams currently stand is all fine and good, but what we really care about his how they will end up. To do that, I simulate all remaining games including conference tournaments, then calculate an Achievement S-Curve for each of the 1,000 simulation runs. This combines how a team has done thus far with how we expect them to do going forward based on their ability, their schedule, and their conference tournament.

The table below shows the results of the simulation. In% is how often the team makes the tournament either as an at-large team or an auto bid. Auto% is how often they win their conference’s automatic bid. At-Large% is how often the team receives an at-large berth ONLY in the scenarios where they did not win the auto bid. The “Sim” columns are the average S-Curve results from the sim while the “Cur” columns are from the current Achievement S-Curve.

Team	Conf	Pred Rk	In%	Auto%	At-Large%	Sim Seed	Sim AchS	%1-seed	Sim S-Curve Rk	Cur Score	Cur Seed	Cur S-Curve Rk
Indiana	BIG10	2	100.0	44.4	100.0	1.1	9.1	94	1.8	6.2816081480	1	1
Michigan	BIG10	4	100.0	17.1	100.0	1.3	7.7	72	3.5	5.5850521511	2	5
Duke	ACC	13	100.0	42.4	100.0	1.5	7.3	63	4.5	5.9604963342	1	2
Michigan State	BIG10	11	100.0	6.4	100.0	2.0	6.6	34	6.4	5.6198809628	1	4
Gonzaga	WCC	6	100.0	63.5	100.0	1.9	6.5	32	6.2	5.6690057808	1	3
Florida	SEC	1	100.0	77.4	100.0	2.0	6.4	27	6.5	3.9520652945	3	12
Louisville	BIGEAST	3	100.0	38.7	100.0	2.2	6.3	30	7.4	4.3068658104	3	9
Miami (FL)	ACC	16	100.0	29.6	100.0	2.3	6.1	21	7.9	5.3820909028	2	6
Syracuse	BIGEAST	8	100.0	17.8	100.0	2.8	5.5	13	9.9	4.0273980837	3	11
Kansas	BIG12	14	100.0	42.4	100.0	3.1	5.2	4	11.1	4.3340111434	2	8
Arizona	PAC12	12	100.0	47.7	100.0	3.2	5.1	3	11.2	4.0991457530	3	10
Wisconsin	BIG10	5	100.0	18.0	100.0	3.3	5.1	5	11.5	3.6705941112	4	14
New Mexico	MWC	32	100.0	12.1	100.0	3.8	4.6	2	13.6	4.4592339672	2	7
Ohio State	BIG10	9	100.0	6.2	100.0	4.3	4.1	2	15.7	2.9473922762	5	17
Georgetown	BIGEAST	29	100.0	4.2	100.0	4.3	4.1	1	15.6	3.7999698219	4	13
Marquette	BIGEAST	18	100.0	8.2	100.0	4.7	3.8	1	17.2	2.9333235966	5	18
Minnesota	BIG10	10	100.0	5.5	100.0	4.9	3.6	0	18.0	2.5314803201	5	19
Butler	A-10	39	100.0	11.8	100.0	5.3	3.3	NULL	19.8	3.3811244515	4	15
Pittsburgh	BIGEAST	7	100.0	21.8	100.0	5.6	3.1	NULL	20.9	1.7121030593	7	26
Kansas State	BIG12	38	100.0	11.2	100.0	5.7	3.0	NULL	21.4	3.0566993388	4	16
Colorado State	MWC	15	100.0	32.4	100.0	5.8	2.9	NULL	21.9	1.9682486437	7	25
Illinois	BIG10	27	100.0	1.4	100.0	6.0	2.8	NULL	22.4	2.4837975679	5	20
Wichita State	MVC	30	100.0	32.1	100.0	6.5	2.4	NULL	24.7	2.2703058453	6	21
Notre Dame	BIGEAST	33	100.0	3.4	100.0	6.8	2.3	NULL	25.6	2.1758063034	6	22
Oregon	PAC12	34	99.9	18.1	99.9	7.0	2.1	NULL	26.7	1.9783474744	6	24
Oklahoma State	BIG12	25	99.8	20.8	99.7	7.5	1.8	NULL	28.8	1.3109678498	7	27
Memphis	C-USA	46	98.6	50.9	97.1	7.5	1.8	NULL	29.1	2.1360869298	6	23
Creighton	MVC	22	99.5	41.9	99.1	7.6	1.8	NULL	29.1	1.2518823344	7	28
Missouri	SEC	28	99.4	5.2	99.4	7.8	1.6	NULL	30.1	1.2094462480	8	29
Cincinnati	BIGEAST	23	98.5	4.3	98.4	8.1	1.5	NULL	31.2	0.9587659657	9	34
San Diego State	MWC	24	98.8	18.3	98.5	8.2	1.4	NULL	31.7	0.9635140733	9	33
Saint Mary's (CA)	WCC	17	99.0	29.6	98.6	8.2	1.3	NULL	31.8	0.7674428595	9	35
North Carolina State	ACC	36	96.7	10.1	96.3	8.4	1.2	NULL	33.3	1.1965193055	8	30
Nevada-Las Vegas	MWC	35	97.4	31.8	96.2	8.7	1.1	NULL	34.0	1.0234508588	8	32
Saint Louis	A-10	19	93.6	35.8	90.0	8.5	1.0	NULL	34.4	0.1848235317	11	42
Virginia Commonwealth	A-10	20	96.1	32.1	94.3	9.0	0.8	NULL	35.7	0.2196562723	11	41
Iowa	BIG10	26	95.1	1.0	95.1	9.2	0.7	NULL	36.6	0.3262984650	10	40
Colorado	PAC12	43	89.5	6.7	88.7	9.4	0.4	NULL	38.8	0.7263234935	9	36
Middle Tennessee	SUNBELT	65	92.9	59.6	82.4	9.8	0.3	NULL	39.4	0.6798557179	10	37
Kentucky	SEC	21	86.6	8.4	85.4	9.8	0.2	NULL	41.0	-0.4397045321	12	48
North Carolina	ACC	40	82.4	8.0	80.9	9.8	0.1	NULL	41.8	0.1683717033	11	43
UCLA	PAC12	42	81.7	10.8	79.5	9.6	0.1	NULL	41.4	0.3623061409	10	39
Oklahoma	BIG12	50	83.2	5.8	82.2	9.9	0.0	NULL	42.2	0.5710391402	10	38
Mississippi	SEC	31	71.0	5.7	69.2	10.5	-0.4	NULL	46.1	-0.6367037170	NULL	51
Akron	MAC	53	76.8	56.5	46.7	10.9	-0.5	NULL	46.9	-0.1233804448	12	46
Bucknell	PATRIOT	86	78.1	74.2	15.1	11.5	-0.6	NULL	47.2	-0.3568084215	12	47
La Salle	A-10	55	63.6	7.2	60.8	10.6	-0.6	NULL	47.6	-0.1050062319	12	45
Iowa State	BIG12	41	60.9	8.0	57.5	10.5	-0.7	NULL	48.3	-0.6258807153	NULL	50
Louisiana Tech	WAC	87	55.4	25.7	40.0	11.0	-0.9	NULL	49.7	0.0283474914	11	44
Stephen F. Austin	SLAND	79	69.7	65.0	13.4	11.9	-1.1	NULL	52.0	-0.6534217389	13	52
Belmont	OVC	54	62.5	62.3	0.5	12.3	-1.3	NULL	53.9	-1.1384717068	13	59
Temple	A-10	72	36.8	2.3	35.3	10.9	-1.4	NULL	54.6	-0.5028694454	13	49
Villanova	BIGEAST	48	36.5	0.2	36.4	11.0	-1.4	NULL	54.5	-0.9314740119	NULL	58
Boise State	MWC	70	34.7	2.2	33.2	11.0	-1.5	NULL	55.2	-0.6702755423	NULL	53
Arizona State	PAC12	67	30.1	3.7	27.4	10.9	-1.5	NULL	55.1	-0.7073332666	NULL	54
California	PAC12	63	33.9	4.3	30.9	10.9	-1.6	NULL	56.6	-0.7806818753	NULL	56
Southern Mississippi	C-USA	88	35.8	25.8	13.5	12.0	-1.7	NULL	58.0	-0.7523181117	NULL	55
Virginia	ACC	45	21.2	4.4	17.6	11.1	-2.0	NULL	61.6	-1.5369420711	NULL	60
Wyoming	MWC	52	16.6	2.2	14.7	11.5	-2.1	NULL	62.8	-1.6592018282	NULL	63
Valparaiso	HORIZON	64	55.4	55.4	0.0	12.9	-2.2	NULL	63.4	-1.8817686035	NULL	64
Baylor	BIG12	37	20.7	9.9	12.0	11.6	-2.2	NULL	64.1	-2.1733169292	NULL	71
Alabama	SEC	69	13.7	1.5	12.4	11.7	-2.2	NULL	63.3	-1.5999842242	NULL	62
Maryland	ACC	60	14.9	1.9	13.3	11.3	-2.3	NULL	64.5	-1.5408459142	NULL	61
Arkansas	SEC	49	12.9	1.3	11.8	11.5	-2.4	NULL	65.9	-1.9149244312	NULL	65
Brigham Young	WCC	47	8.5	3.4	5.3	11.9	-2.4	NULL	65.6	-2.0657114817	NULL	66
Charlotte	A-10	100	9.0	0.7	8.4	11.5	-2.6	NULL	68.2	-0.9286769692	NULL	57
Northern Iowa	MVC	62	9.7	8.8	1.0	12.2	-2.7	NULL	69.0	-2.0927266365	NULL	68
North Dakota State	SUMMIT	56	55.7	55.7	0.0	13.4	-2.9	NULL	71.1	-2.6022992456	14	77
Stanford	PAC12	44	8.6	5.6	3.2	11.8	-3.0	NULL	73.2	-2.6510836870	NULL	80
Tennessee	SEC	58	4.9	0.4	4.5	11.9	-3.0	NULL	73.7	-2.3597351241	NULL	74
Davidson	SOUTHERN	77	67.5	67.5	0.0	13.6	-3.1	NULL	74.4	-2.7596007666	14	82
Harvard	IVY	95	73.4	73.4	0.0	13.5	-3.1	NULL	75.0	-2.0923527679	13	67
St. John's (NY)	BIGEAST	81	2.2	0.9	1.3	12.1	-3.2	NULL	75.6	-2.1747860477	NULL	72
Santa Clara	WCC	71	3.4	3.4	0.0	12.6	-3.2	NULL	74.9	-2.8622522973	NULL	84
Ohio	MAC	80	33.5	33.5	0.0	13.3	-3.2	NULL	75.0	-2.2278750244	NULL	73
Detroit	HORIZON	51	37.2	37.2	0.0	13.3	-3.3	NULL	76.5	-2.9590857003	15	87
Air Force	MWC	93	1.4	0.6	0.8	12.4	-3.3	NULL	77.4	-2.1607464527	NULL	69
Denver	WAC	61	36.6	36.6	0.0	13.5	-3.4	NULL	78.9	-2.8882031086	14	85
Indiana State	MVC	78	5.6	5.6	0.0	12.8	-3.4	NULL	78.5	-2.7305906298	NULL	81
Stony Brook	A-EAST	99	56.1	56.1	0.0	13.7	-3.4	NULL	78.3	-2.6231861220	14	79
Providence	BIGEAST	57	0.6	0.4	0.2	12.5	-3.8	NULL	83.6	-3.3032224707	NULL	97
Montana	BIGSKY	175	42.2	42.2	0.0	13.8	-3.8	NULL	84.0	-2.1683043800	NULL	70
Lehigh	PATRIOT	130	19.6	19.6	0.0	13.5	-3.8	NULL	83.3	-2.8557810147	NULL	83
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	121	11.5	11.5	0.0	13.5	-3.8	NULL	83.6	-2.5216056836	NULL	76
South Dakota State	SUMMIT	103	24.6	24.6	0.0	13.7	-3.9	NULL	85.0	-3.1054078058	NULL	92
Utah State	WAC	115	9.5	9.5	0.0	13.5	-3.9	NULL	84.7	-2.3602906029	NULL	75
Western Illinois	SUMMIT	148	11.0	11.0	0.0	13.8	-4.0	NULL	87.3	-3.1700062257	NULL	93
Massachusetts	A-10	94	0.8	0.7	0.1	12.7	-4.0	NULL	86.9	-2.6193416857	NULL	78
College of Charleston	SOUTHERN	149	15.9	15.9	0.0	13.8	-4.0	NULL	86.4	-3.0364031467	NULL	90
Murray State	OVC	112	21.6	21.6	0.0	13.8	-4.1	NULL	88.4	-3.4269941568	NULL	98
Weber State	BIGSKY	122	51.1	51.1	0.0	14.0	-4.2	NULL	88.5	-3.0046032372	15	88
Northwestern	BIG10	89	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-4.3	NULL	91.0	-3.4420166388	NULL	99
Northwestern State	SLAND	137	17.9	17.9	0.0	13.9	-4.4	NULL	91.6	-2.9201881574	NULL	86
Saint Joseph's	A-10	82	1.4	1.4	0.0	13.4	-4.5	NULL	93.8	-3.6430625092	NULL	100
Texas A&M	SEC	110	0.2	0.1	0.1	13.0	-4.6	NULL	94.4	-3.0542993781	NULL	91
Washington	PAC12	84	1.4	1.4	0.0	13.5	-4.7	NULL	96.8	-3.7495829872	NULL	102
Xavier	A-10	66	5.3	5.2	0.1	13.4	-4.7	NULL	95.7	-3.7484971115	NULL	101
Louisiana State	SEC	114	0.2	0.0	0.2	12.0	-4.8	NULL	97.9	-3.0097895208	NULL	89
Florida State	ACC	106	0.5	0.4	0.1	12.3	-4.9	NULL	99.7	-3.2147799463	NULL	94
Rutgers	BIGEAST	116	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-4.9	NULL	98.7	-3.3023640168	NULL	96
New Mexico State	WAC	76	25.6	25.6	0.0	14.2	-4.9	NULL	99.4	-4.1772718722	NULL	104
Purdue	BIG10	74	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-5.0	NULL	100.7	-4.2928819665	NULL	106
Illinois State	MVC	59	8.0	8.0	0.0	13.9	-5.0	NULL	100.8	-4.5655317258	NULL	112
Richmond	A-10	98	0.6	0.6	0.0	12.8	-5.1	NULL	101.9	-3.8499980789	NULL	103
Dayton	A-10	68	1.0	1.0	0.0	13.8	-5.3	NULL	105.0	-4.5538603620	NULL	111
Long Beach State	BIGWEST	142	23.5	23.5	0.0	14.6	-5.4	NULL	106.6	-3.2847254834	NULL	95
Georgia Tech	ACC	85	0.9	0.9	0.0	13.4	-5.6	NULL	109.3	-4.3779139307	NULL	108
Canisius	MAAC	123	22.3	22.3	0.0	14.6	-5.6	NULL	109.0	-4.5963567639	NULL	115
Nebraska	BIG10	120	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-5.6	NULL	108.7	-4.2405183396	NULL	105
Florida Gulf Coast	A-SUN	166	31.2	31.2	0.0	14.9	-5.9	NULL	114.0	-4.7518765679	15	116
Wright State	HORIZON	131	2.4	2.4	0.0	14.3	-5.9	NULL	113.7	-4.4933251481	NULL	110
Clemson	ACC	75	1.1	1.1	0.0	13.5	-6.0	NULL	115.7	-4.9401071805	NULL	120
North Carolina Central	MEAC	185	39.4	39.4	0.0	15.0	-6.0	NULL	115.7	-4.8909728720	16	119
Southern California	PAC12	91	0.7	0.7	0.0	14.1	-6.1	NULL	116.5	-4.5824389549	NULL	113
Bryant	NEC	172	36.0	36.0	0.0	14.9	-6.1	NULL	116.2	-4.5841968383	15	114
West Virginia	BIG12	83	1.4	1.4	0.0	14.4	-6.1	NULL	116.1	-4.8406176604	NULL	117
Western Michigan	MAC	135	5.5	5.5	0.0	14.5	-6.1	NULL	116.4	-4.4285506219	NULL	109
Vermont	A-EAST	145	22.6	22.6	0.0	14.9	-6.4	NULL	121.0	-5.3789766394	NULL	130
Southern	SWAC	213	76.4	76.4	0.0	15.4	-6.4	NULL	121.4	-5.3687585973	NULL	129
Seton Hall	BIGEAST	113	0.1	0.1	0.0	14.0	-6.6	NULL	124.7	-5.3502254581	NULL	128
Texas	BIG12	104	0.5	0.5	0.0	14.0	-6.6	NULL	124.0	-4.8892219114	NULL	118
Oral Roberts	SLAND	136	14.8	14.8	0.0	15.0	-6.6	NULL	124.7	-5.3250139835	NULL	126
Evansville	MVC	96	2.0	2.0	0.0	14.7	-6.6	NULL	124.0	-5.5447937754	NULL	133
Elon	SOUTHERN	169	13.2	13.2	0.0	15.0	-6.7	NULL	126.6	-5.0393937387	NULL	121
Loyola (MD)	MAAC	140	13.5	13.5	0.0	15.2	-6.8	NULL	128.1	-5.2327920360	NULL	125
Arkansas State	SUNBELT	105	23.2	23.2	0.0	15.2	-6.8	NULL	128.1	-5.9632578794	NULL	139
St. Bonaventure	A-10	108	0.3	0.3	0.0	14.3	-6.8	NULL	127.1	-5.6055890467	NULL	136
Princeton	IVY	97	22.9	22.9	0.0	15.0	-6.9	NULL	129.4	-5.5939214998	NULL	134
Tennessee State	OVC	174	3.6	3.6	0.0	15.1	-7.0	NULL	131.7	-5.4687629015	NULL	131
Mercer	A-SUN	195	43.4	43.4	0.0	15.4	-7.2	NULL	133.4	-5.5113831059	NULL	132
Charleston Southern	BIGSOUTH	143	32.7	32.7	0.0	15.4	-7.2	NULL	134.7	-5.7209496379	16	138
Texas-El Paso	C-USA	118	9.5	9.5	0.0	15.2	-7.2	NULL	134.3	-5.6043760204	NULL	135
Green Bay	HORIZON	107	3.8	3.8	0.0	15.1	-7.3	NULL	134.8	-6.1695359851	NULL	145
Tulane	C-USA	150	3.8	3.8	0.0	15.1	-7.3	NULL	136.1	-5.3310633504	NULL	127
Texas-Arlington	WAC	177	1.3	1.3	0.0	15.4	-7.3	NULL	136.2	-5.0439498071	NULL	122
Bradley	MVC	117	1.0	1.0	0.0	14.6	-7.4	NULL	137.8	-6.1337696019	NULL	143
Northeastern	CAA	155	27.3	27.3	0.0	15.6	-7.5	NULL	138.3	-6.4017783916	NULL	150
Fairfield	MAAC	126	15.4	15.4	0.0	15.5	-7.6	NULL	140.9	-6.3392855945	NULL	148
George Washington	A-10	90	0.9	0.9	0.0	15.1	-7.6	NULL	141.6	-6.2498619262	NULL	146
Georgia	SEC	129	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-7.7	NULL	142.5	-5.2301213469	NULL	124
Albany (NY)	A-EAST	167	16.1	16.1	0.0	15.4	-7.7	NULL	142.4	-6.0296691750	NULL	141
Niagara	MAAC	133	19.7	19.7	0.0	15.6	-7.7	NULL	142.8	-6.7007441282	NULL	158
Oregon State	PAC12	101	0.1	0.1	0.0	15.0	-7.7	NULL	143.5	-6.1100042906	NULL	142
Pacific	BIGWEST	139	21.4	21.4	0.0	15.6	-7.7	NULL	143.2	-5.6436261813	16	137
Oakland	SUMMIT	160	7.3	7.3	0.0	15.6	-7.9	NULL	145.3	-6.9343518640	NULL	162
Norfolk State	MEAC	224	20.5	20.5	0.0	15.7	-7.9	NULL	146.4	-6.3022958430	NULL	147
Robert Morris	NEC	194	23.6	23.6	0.0	15.6	-7.9	NULL	145.9	-6.1404970200	NULL	144
Boston College	ACC	73	1.2	1.2	0.0	15.1	-7.9	NULL	147.3	-7.0482793193	NULL	164
East Carolina	C-USA	154	2.4	2.4	0.0	15.2	-7.9	NULL	146.1	-5.9926241821	NULL	140
George Mason	CAA	141	19.8	19.8	0.0	15.7	-8.0	NULL	148.0	-6.5925672927	16	154
Nevada	MWC	102	0.4	0.4	0.0	14.5	-8.1	NULL	149.1	-6.5251567646	NULL	153
Savannah State	MEAC	250	13.0	13.0	0.0	15.7	-8.2	NULL	151.9	-5.1647726778	NULL	123
Drake	MVC	128	0.4	0.4	0.0	15.0	-8.2	NULL	151.4	-6.8424498777	NULL	160
Delaware	CAA	144	23.1	23.1	0.0	15.8	-8.2	NULL	150.9	-6.6957710194	NULL	156
South Florida	BIGEAST	119	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-8.4	NULL	155.9	-7.1102437754	NULL	166
South Alabama	SUNBELT	165	6.8	6.8	0.0	15.7	-8.4	NULL	154.4	-6.3441045254	NULL	149
Iona	MAAC	109	23.4	23.4	0.0	15.8	-8.5	NULL	156.3	-7.5354344386	NULL	180
Jacksonville State	OVC	203	0.3	0.3	0.0	15.7	-8.5	NULL	157.1	-6.7732114505	NULL	159
DePaul	BIGEAST	111	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-8.6	NULL	159.0	-7.0417817390	NULL	163
Wagner	NEC	208	8.7	8.7	0.0	15.6	-8.6	NULL	158.5	-6.4112693581	NULL	151
Vanderbilt	SEC	125	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-8.7	NULL	159.7	-7.1222617282	NULL	167
Gardner-Webb	BIGSOUTH	178	14.6	14.6	0.0	15.9	-8.7	NULL	159.8	-7.0768715496	NULL	165
Illinois-Chicago	HORIZON	184	0.2	0.2	0.0	15.5	-8.8	NULL	162.3	-6.6972272772	NULL	157
Penn State	BIG10	124	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-8.8	NULL	162.3	-7.4880058101	NULL	177
Virginia Tech	ACC	158	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-8.8	NULL	162.4	-6.4118096228	NULL	152
Wake Forest	ACC	132	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-8.9	NULL	163.9	-6.8488789479	NULL	161
San Francisco	WCC	127	0.1	0.1	0.0	16.0	-8.9	NULL	164.6	-7.5579427680	NULL	181
High Point	BIGSOUTH	212	7.2	7.2	0.0	15.9	-9.0	NULL	165.8	-7.6867256809	NULL	182
Youngstown State	HORIZON	146	0.7	0.7	0.0	15.7	-9.0	NULL	165.5	-7.4810599467	NULL	176
Hawaii	BIGWEST	179	8.7	8.7	0.0	15.9	-9.1	NULL	167.5	-7.2340338422	NULL	168
Florida International	SUNBELT	200	2.2	2.2	0.0	15.9	-9.1	NULL	167.7	-7.4513003848	NULL	173
Cornell	IVY	190	3.5	3.5	0.0	15.8	-9.3	NULL	169.7	-7.3225323749	NULL	172
Cal Poly	BIGWEST	152	18.0	18.0	0.0	15.9	-9.3	NULL	170.2	-7.4798252726	NULL	175
North Carolina-Asheville	BIGSOUTH	173	18.7	18.7	0.0	16.0	-9.3	NULL	171.8	-8.1441252730	NULL	187
Tulsa	C-USA	199	4.5	4.5	0.0	16.0	-9.5	NULL	173.1	-7.2604073203	NULL	170
Washington State	PAC12	92	0.8	0.8	0.0	15.9	-9.5	NULL	174.4	-8.3663342279	NULL	191
Utah	PAC12	134	0.1	0.1	0.0	14.0	-9.6	NULL	175.7	-7.4759028736	NULL	174
San Diego	WCC	189	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-9.6	NULL	176.0	-7.7063351388	NULL	183
Fresno State	MWC	138	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-9.7	NULL	176.8	-8.0182046020	NULL	185
Houston	C-USA	201	0.3	0.3	0.0	15.7	-9.8	NULL	178.2	-7.5206415495	NULL	179
Loyola (IL)	HORIZON	156	0.3	0.3	0.0	16.0	-9.8	NULL	179.6	-8.4998361066	NULL	197
Kent State	MAC	153	2.9	2.9	0.0	15.9	-9.9	NULL	180.5	-7.8754056526	NULL	184
Hartford	A-EAST	220	3.5	3.5	0.0	16.0	-9.9	NULL	181.9	-8.4691947259	NULL	195
Southern Illinois	MVC	151	0.2	0.2	0.0	16.0	-9.9	NULL	181.3	-8.4686271253	NULL	194
NJIT	GWC	275	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-9.9	NULL	179.6	-8.5286381339	NULL	199
South Carolina	SEC	171	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-10.0	NULL	181.2	-7.2753377546	NULL	171
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	214	1.7	1.7	0.0	16.0	-10.2	NULL	185.6	-8.2518944131	NULL	188
Long Island University	NEC	180	24.5	24.5	0.0	16.0	-10.2	NULL	185.3	-8.3784599528	NULL	192
Arkansas-Little Rock	SUNBELT	218	1.7	1.7	0.0	16.0	-10.2	NULL	184.7	-7.4915163084	NULL	178
Pepperdine	WCC	183	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-10.3	NULL	186.0	-8.1333706162	NULL	186
Western Kentucky	SUNBELT	161	3.7	3.7	0.0	16.0	-10.6	NULL	190.3	-8.6853461301	NULL	201
Columbia	IVY	157	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-10.7	NULL	191.7	-9.1359148282	NULL	207
James Madison	CAA	162	13.1	13.1	0.0	16.0	-10.7	NULL	192.9	-9.4024040408	NULL	213
Texas Tech	BIG12	192	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-10.8	NULL	194.2	-8.7603439521	NULL	204
Alabama-Birmingham	C-USA	163	1.6	1.6	0.0	16.0	-10.9	NULL	195.8	-8.5282974099	NULL	198
California-Irvine	BIGWEST	181	8.7	8.7	0.0	16.0	-11.0	NULL	196.0	-8.3571717389	NULL	189
Lafayette	PATRIOT	230	1.3	1.3	0.0	16.0	-11.1	NULL	197.6	-9.0192154947	NULL	206
Sam Houston State	SLAND	235	1.1	1.1	0.0	16.0	-11.3	NULL	201.8	-8.8013956802	NULL	205
Rider	MAAC	196	4.3	4.3	0.0	16.0	-11.4	NULL	202.2	-9.1809007289	NULL	208
Coastal Carolina	BIGSOUTH	223	17.5	17.5	0.0	16.0	-11.4	NULL	202.8	-9.3427716705	NULL	211
Cal State Northridge	BIGWEST	202	2.6	2.6	0.0	16.0	-11.4	NULL	202.7	-9.7164625328	NULL	216
Delaware State	MEAC	274	4.6	4.6	0.0	16.0	-11.5	NULL	204.5	-8.4898341209	NULL	196
Marshall	C-USA	170	1.2	1.2	0.0	16.0	-11.6	NULL	206.0	-9.2796746563	NULL	209
Rhode Island	A-10	159	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-11.8	NULL	209.2	-10.2060211799	NULL	228
Southeastern Louisiana	SLAND	278	0.4	0.4	0.0	16.0	-11.8	NULL	209.0	-8.6308095737	NULL	200
Cleveland State	HORIZON	225	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-11.8	NULL	208.2	-9.9102358156	NULL	220
Army	PATRIOT	176	3.3	3.3	0.0	15.9	-11.9	NULL	210.8	-10.2588070068	NULL	229
Auburn	SEC	147	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-11.9	NULL	210.9	-9.7260286855	NULL	218
Portland	WCC	215	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-11.9	NULL	209.9	-10.0627386211	NULL	225
Yale	IVY	198	0.2	0.2	0.0	NULL	-11.9	NULL	209.6	-9.3665869096	NULL	212
South Carolina Upstate	A-SUN	204	12.1	12.1	0.0	16.0	-12.0	NULL	211.3	-10.0392527681	NULL	224
California-Davis	BIGWEST	188	8.5	8.5	0.0	16.0	-12.0	NULL	213.3	-9.7203854086	NULL	217
Cal State Fullerton	BIGWEST	182	7.4	7.4	0.0	16.0	-12.1	NULL	213.2	-9.4688499019	NULL	214
Brown	IVY	219	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-12.3	NULL	217.0	-9.5095574517	NULL	215
Stetson	A-SUN	249	4.6	4.6	0.0	16.0	-12.4	NULL	219.4	-10.4902996301	NULL	235
Morehead State	OVC	221	0.5	0.5	0.0	16.0	-12.4	NULL	219.6	-9.9281086376	NULL	221
Idaho	WAC	164	0.8	0.8	0.0	16.0	-12.5	NULL	221.0	-10.8619177856	NULL	242
William & Mary	CAA	187	6.4	6.4	0.0	16.0	-12.5	NULL	220.7	-10.6642782176	NULL	238
Southeast Missouri State	OVC	232	0.2	0.2	0.0	NULL	-12.6	NULL	221.2	-10.4192100829	NULL	231
Southern Methodist	C-USA	207	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-12.7	NULL	224.0	-9.7846721369	NULL	219
Drexel	CAA	168	9.9	9.9	0.0	16.0	-12.7	NULL	223.7	-10.6142257945	NULL	237
Duquesne	A-10	186	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-12.7	NULL	223.2	-10.9191484480	NULL	244
Eastern Michigan	MAC	284	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-12.8	NULL	227.0	-8.7123742473	NULL	202
Central Connecticut State	NEC	236	1.3	1.3	0.0	16.0	-12.8	NULL	226.3	-10.2773802115	NULL	230
Texas Christian	BIG12	226	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-12.8	NULL	225.7	-9.9802258689	NULL	222
Mississippi State	SEC	206	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-13.0	NULL	229.4	-10.0206585877	NULL	223
North Dakota	BIGSKY	261	2.2	2.2	0.0	16.0	-13.1	NULL	232.3	-10.5298983275	NULL	236
Morgan State	MEAC	240	9.8	9.8	0.0	16.0	-13.2	NULL	234.0	-11.2273716636	NULL	251
Appalachian State	SOUTHERN	273	0.4	0.4	0.0	16.0	-13.2	NULL	233.5	-11.8223692886	NULL	269
Ball State	MAC	238	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-13.2	NULL	234.5	-10.0799273513	NULL	226
Jacksonville	A-SUN	269	2.7	2.7	0.0	16.0	-13.2	NULL	233.3	-10.4622066970	NULL	232
Florida Atlantic	SUNBELT	255	0.2	0.2	0.0	16.0	-13.3	NULL	234.5	-10.9617562441	NULL	246
McNeese State	SLAND	287	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-13.3	NULL	235.1	-9.2847420860	NULL	210
Sacramento State	BIGSKY	258	1.1	1.1	0.0	16.0	-13.4	NULL	237.4	-10.1520686056	NULL	227
Holy Cross	PATRIOT	234	0.2	0.2	0.0	NULL	-13.4	NULL	236.7	-11.2940359480	NULL	252
Lipscomb	A-SUN	294	0.3	0.3	0.0	NULL	-13.4	NULL	237.4	-10.8809807499	NULL	243
Campbell	BIGSOUTH	277	2.2	2.2	0.0	16.0	-13.4	NULL	238.4	-11.3240125841	NULL	253
Loyola Marymount	WCC	197	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-13.5	NULL	239.0	-10.7707873402	NULL	240
California-Santa Barbara	BIGWEST	217	1.2	1.2	0.0	16.0	-13.5	NULL	239.4	-11.1725279244	NULL	250
Manhattan	MAAC	210	0.8	0.8	0.0	16.0	-13.5	NULL	239.2	-11.0764487590	NULL	247
Winthrop	BIGSOUTH	270	0.7	0.7	0.0	16.0	-13.5	NULL	240.2	-11.0907847328	NULL	249
St. Francis (NY)	NEC	227	1.1	1.1	0.0	16.0	-13.6	NULL	241.2	-11.6533070855	NULL	262
Tennessee Tech	OVC	262	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-13.7	NULL	243.0	-12.1685548801	NULL	277
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	272	5.2	5.2	0.0	16.0	-13.7	NULL	243.6	-10.9511829818	NULL	245
North Florida	A-SUN	245	3.9	3.9	0.0	16.0	-13.7	NULL	244.1	-11.6222864511	NULL	261
Buffalo	MAC	193	1.0	1.0	0.0	16.0	-13.7	NULL	244.6	-10.7219283881	NULL	239
Southern Illinois-Edwardsville	OVC	288	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-13.7	NULL	243.9	-11.7795974099	NULL	268
Western Carolina	SOUTHERN	251	1.1	1.1	0.0	16.0	-13.7	NULL	243.1	-12.0895698355	NULL	274
Bowling Green State	MAC	209	0.4	0.4	0.0	NULL	-13.8	NULL	245.7	-10.8411737821	NULL	241
Quinnipiac	NEC	222	2.9	2.9	0.0	16.0	-13.8	NULL	245.8	-10.4763628114	NULL	233
American	PATRIOT	237	1.0	1.0	0.0	16.0	-13.9	NULL	247.4	-11.6026710642	NULL	260
IPFW	SUMMIT	246	0.6	0.6	0.0	16.0	-13.9	NULL	248.0	-12.0851952537	NULL	273
Missouri State	MVC	191	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-14.0	NULL	249.5	-12.1989631414	NULL	278
Utah Valley	GWC	289	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-14.0	NULL	249.9	-11.7364060945	NULL	265
Virginia Military Institute	BIGSOUTH	242	4.1	4.1	0.0	16.0	-14.2	NULL	254.4	-11.6867116199	NULL	263
Fordham	A-10	233	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-14.2	NULL	254.9	-12.0058980612	NULL	272
Houston Baptist	GWC	318	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-14.3	NULL	256.6	-11.4939086540	NULL	257
Colgate	PATRIOT	252	0.4	0.4	0.0	NULL	-14.4	NULL	258.1	-12.5523544459	NULL	288
San Jose State	WAC	257	0.1	0.1	0.0	16.0	-14.4	NULL	256.6	-11.7418620361	NULL	266
Central Michigan	MAC	229	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-14.5	NULL	257.8	-11.3392799509	NULL	254
Louisiana-Lafayette	SUNBELT	205	1.7	1.7	0.0	16.0	-14.5	NULL	259.2	-12.3389192336	NULL	282
Texas-Pan American	GWC	313	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-14.6	NULL	260.4	-12.3564687860	NULL	283
North Texas	SUNBELT	211	0.5	0.5	0.0	NULL	-14.6	NULL	261.4	-12.4912056499	NULL	286
Montana State	BIGSKY	266	1.3	1.3	0.0	16.0	-14.7	NULL	261.5	-11.9014892536	NULL	270
Maine	A-EAST	247	1.1	1.1	0.0	NULL	-14.7	NULL	264.6	-12.7421451026	NULL	293
South Dakota	SUMMIT	231	0.5	0.5	0.0	16.0	-14.7	NULL	263.1	-12.5862660179	NULL	289
Wofford	SOUTHERN	263	0.5	0.5	0.0	16.0	-14.7	NULL	262.8	-12.5143619417	NULL	287
Northern Arizona	BIGSKY	271	0.5	0.5	0.0	NULL	-14.8	NULL	263.9	-11.3712299150	NULL	255
Northern Colorado	BIGSKY	265	1.0	1.0	0.0	NULL	-14.9	NULL	266.2	-12.2931077200	NULL	280
Miami (OH)	MAC	254	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-14.9	NULL	266.4	-11.3814913903	NULL	256
Jackson State	SWAC	320	5.8	5.8	0.0	16.0	-15.0	NULL	268.7	-12.2865543588	NULL	279
Northern Kentucky	A-SUN	276	1.5	1.5	0.0	NULL	-15.0	NULL	268.8	-11.7222227633	NULL	264
Hampton	MEAC	290	2.6	2.6	0.0	16.0	-15.1	NULL	268.0	-11.9747245175	NULL	271
Nicholls State	SLAND	243	0.7	0.7	0.0	16.0	-15.1	NULL	269.5	-12.3956210816	NULL	284
Sacred Heart	NEC	260	0.2	0.2	0.0	NULL	-15.2	NULL	271.4	-11.7537769217	NULL	267
Samford	SOUTHERN	283	0.5	0.5	0.0	NULL	-15.3	NULL	272.2	-12.1181307160	NULL	275
Portland State	BIGSKY	264	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-15.3	NULL	272.5	-13.3253791559	NULL	301
Monmouth	NEC	285	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-15.4	NULL	273.0	-12.9915966111	NULL	295
Radford	BIGSOUTH	256	2.2	2.2	0.0	16.0	-15.4	NULL	274.8	-13.1934227390	NULL	298
Georgia Southern	SOUTHERN	295	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-15.4	NULL	273.7	-12.6670862856	NULL	291
Bethune-Cookman	MEAC	280	3.2	3.2	0.0	NULL	-15.5	NULL	274.9	-12.3105279738	NULL	281
Southern Utah	BIGSKY	299	0.5	0.5	0.0	NULL	-15.5	NULL	276.9	-11.5812818252	NULL	259
Central Arkansas	SLAND	293	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-15.6	NULL	277.4	-12.6989029129	NULL	292
Alabama A&M	SWAC	326	2.8	2.8	0.0	NULL	-16.0	NULL	282.2	-13.1051453318	NULL	297
Chattanooga	SOUTHERN	282	0.5	0.5	0.0	NULL	-16.1	NULL	283.6	-12.9338848420	NULL	294
Seattle	WAC	216	0.2	0.2	0.0	NULL	-16.1	NULL	283.0	-13.3638234998	NULL	303
Chicago State	GWC	314	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-16.2	NULL	284.8	-13.2406765344	NULL	300
Tennessee-Martin	OVC	308	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-16.2	NULL	286.2	-13.8583817194	NULL	304
New Hampshire	A-EAST	239	0.5	0.5	0.0	NULL	-16.2	NULL	285.8	-14.4298675765	NULL	308
Troy	SUNBELT	253	0.4	0.4	0.0	NULL	-16.4	NULL	286.7	-13.2013601238	NULL	299
Dartmouth	IVY	291	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-16.5	NULL	287.6	-12.4605763116	NULL	285
Alabama State	SWAC	319	8.6	8.6	0.0	16.0	-16.7	NULL	290.3	-14.0590853237	NULL	305
Pennsylvania	IVY	228	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-16.7	NULL	290.3	-13.0379208325	NULL	296
Prairie View	SWAC	325	2.2	2.2	0.0	NULL	-16.8	NULL	291.3	-13.3464176656	NULL	302
East Tennessee State	A-SUN	302	0.3	0.3	0.0	NULL	-17.1	NULL	294.2	-14.1745008617	NULL	306
Texas-San Antonio	WAC	248	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-17.3	NULL	296.8	-14.2059568383	NULL	307
Saint Peter's	MAAC	268	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-17.5	NULL	299.1	-14.8239607883	NULL	311
Texas State	WAC	244	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-17.7	NULL	300.5	-14.6698238891	NULL	310
Eastern Illinois	OVC	281	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-17.7	NULL	300.9	-15.2210383270	NULL	316
Howard	MEAC	304	1.0	1.0	0.0	NULL	-17.7	NULL	300.8	-15.5914388012	NULL	319
Eastern Washington	BIGSKY	286	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-17.8	NULL	301.7	-14.8724643504	NULL	312
Marist	MAAC	241	0.4	0.4	0.0	NULL	-17.8	NULL	301.7	-15.6143093157	NULL	321
Louisiana-Monroe	SUNBELT	300	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-17.9	NULL	302.3	-14.5150012939	NULL	309
Milwaukee	HORIZON	267	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-17.9	NULL	302.6	-16.1551948503	NULL	328
Alcorn State	SWAC	322	4.2	4.2	0.0	NULL	-18.1	NULL	304.4	-14.9245805411	NULL	313
North Carolina-Greensboro	SOUTHERN	259	0.3	0.3	0.0	NULL	-18.1	NULL	304.9	-15.3163059944	NULL	317
Austin Peay	OVC	292	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-18.2	NULL	306.0	-16.9804138718	NULL	336
Citadel	SOUTHERN	315	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-18.3	NULL	306.2	-15.6617555531	NULL	323
IUPUI	SUMMIT	301	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-18.4	NULL	307.9	-16.3179446973	NULL	330
Missouri-Kansas City	SUMMIT	303	0.2	0.2	0.0	NULL	-18.4	NULL	307.7	-15.5979581262	NULL	320
Liberty	BIGSOUTH	298	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-18.5	NULL	308.2	-16.0296794466	NULL	327
Northern Illinois	MAC	296	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-18.6	NULL	308.6	-15.0021693104	NULL	314
Maryland-Baltimore County	A-EAST	311	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-18.8	NULL	310.8	-16.2085208191	NULL	329
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	323	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-19.0	NULL	312.7	-15.9967826467	NULL	326
Florida A&M	MEAC	316	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-19.2	NULL	313.9	-15.6293867678	NULL	322
Presbyterian	BIGSOUTH	321	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-19.4	NULL	316.2	-16.5083735205	NULL	331
Navy	PATRIOT	312	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-19.5	NULL	316.0	-16.6950778291	NULL	332
Rice	C-USA	309	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-19.6	NULL	317.1	-15.0030715403	NULL	315
Siena	MAAC	279	0.1	0.1	0.0	NULL	-19.8	NULL	318.8	-17.5180300113	NULL	341
Idaho State	BIGSKY	305	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-19.9	NULL	318.5	-16.7949761023	NULL	333
Coppin State	MEAC	310	0.6	0.6	0.0	NULL	-20.0	NULL	318.9	-16.9378055069	NULL	335
Furman	SOUTHERN	317	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-20.3	NULL	321.3	-17.1323043307	NULL	337
South Carolina State	MEAC	330	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-20.4	NULL	322.6	-15.5295106964	NULL	318
Longwood	BIGSOUTH	324	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-20.5	NULL	323.0	-17.2700212662	NULL	339
Saint Francis (PA)	NEC	307	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-21.0	NULL	324.6	-18.8160863440	NULL	343
Maryland-Eastern Shore	MEAC	327	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-21.1	NULL	325.1	-17.1789711350	NULL	338
Hofstra	CAA	297	0.4	0.4	0.0	NULL	-21.1	NULL	324.8	-18.2271712925	NULL	342
Lamar	SLAND	328	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-21.3	NULL	326.3	-17.4062864186	NULL	340
Kennesaw State	A-SUN	306	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-21.7	NULL	327.4	-19.3438061096	NULL	345
Binghamton	A-EAST	329	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-22.7	NULL	329.7	-19.4995323296	NULL	346
Grambling	SWAC	331	0.0	0.0	0.0	NULL	-25.2	NULL	331.0	-20.3960597477	NULL	347

Next Time

This post is already getting long, so I’ll leave some of the analysis to you this time. Next time, I’ll take a look at some discrepancies between my system, Bracketology, and predictive rankings. We’re just days away from the best month of the year…

The Achievement S-Curve: 2/21/2013

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