The Achievement S-Curve: 2/21/2013

It’s time to re-introduce the Achievement S-Curve for the 2013 season. For those of you that are new, I’ll give a quick recap in this post but check out previous posts that go into more detail about the system (try this and this and this for starters).

The Achievement S-Curve is a descriptive rating system that attempts to rate teams based on what they have accomplished. It is a subtle yet important difference from a predictive rating system. While a predictive system attempts to answer the question “who would win if these two teams played today?” a descriptive system answers “who has accomplished the most in the games they’ve already played?”.

An example is probably the best way to demonstrate the differences between the two systems. Let’s take a real-life example. My predictive rating system says that New Mexico is the 33rd best team in the country. That is, there are 32 teams I’d favor over the Lobos, but I’d pick them to beat every other team. Pitt, meanwhile, is the 7th best team. Only six teams in the nation would be favored over the Panthers today. However, New Mexico is 22-4 against the 29th-hardest schedule thus far while Pitt hasn’t fared as well with a  20-7 record against a very similar schedule (24th-most difficult). It is clear that New Mexico has “achieved” more thus far this season than Pitt has. The Lobos have earned a higher seed than Pitt, despite the fact that Pitt would beat them more times than not.

The Achievement Ratings work by first looking at the difficulty of a team’s schedule. Schedule difficulty is measured by how many losses an “average tournament team” (think of this like an 8 or 9 seed; examples this year are Notre Dame, UNLV, and Oregon) would have against the opponents the team in question has played. Location is also a factor, playing @ Indiana is more difficult than playing the Hoosiers at home. New Mexico’s SOS this year is 8.5, meaning a baseline team would be expected to win 17.5 and lose 8.5 games against UNM’s schedule. Pitt’s SOS is slightly harder at 8.7.

Next, we compare how many wins and losses each team actually has. New Mexico has 22 wins and just 4 losses, which is 4.5 more wins (or fewer losses) than expected, so their Achievement Score (AchS) is 4.5. Pitt has been good, just not as good as New Mexico, and their 20-7 record is just 1.7 games (8.7 minus 7) better than expected, for an AchS of 1.7. New Mexico’s 4.5 score is good for 7th in the nation currently, and a #2 seed in my bracket, while Pitt comes in at 26th which translates to a #7 seed.

Achievement S-Curve

With the particulars out of the way, let’s see what the Achievement S-Curve looks like. The Achievement S-Curve is simply the Achievement Ratings translated into bracket form. The top 4 teams are the #1 seeds, the next 4 are #2 seeds, etc. Automatic bids are awarded to the team in each conference that has the best predictive rating. Since conferences (except the Ivy) award their automatic bids to tournament champions, it is more likely that the best teams will win it and not the current teams that have achieved the most (there is actually a better way to do this that accounts for not just the quality of the team, but also it’s current conference play to-date, the structure of the conference tournament, and the standing of the rest of the conference’s teams…more on that later).

Here’s the current Achievement S-Curve. Automatic bids are listed with their conference in parentheses. (Click to zoom.)

Achievement S-Curve 130221

If you prefer more information, here’s a full table with all the information. The first column is the overall Achievement Ranks for all 347 teams; the second column is only for the 68 tournament teams. “Pred Rk” is the ranking of the team in my predictive system. The final column is ESPN’s Bracketology seed for comparison. It’s a big table, so scroll horizontally to see all the columns.

OvrS-CurveTeamConfSeedStatusFirst 4?AchSL WkAvgSOSSOS RkPred RkRecordESPN
11IndianaBIG101Auto6.281.040.239.2814224-31
22DukeACC1Auto5.96-0.450.248.96181322-31
33GonzagaWCC1Auto5.671.290.217.6762625-22
44Michigan StateBIG101At-Large5.620.130.2210.6231121-52
55MichiganBIG102At-Large5.590.100.229.599421-42
66Miami (FL)ACC2At-Large5.380.750.228.38301622-31
77New MexicoMWC2At-Large4.460.210.178.46293322-43
88KansasBIG122Auto4.330.870.178.33331422-43
99LouisvilleBIGEAST3Auto4.310.510.179.3113321-53
1010ArizonaPAC123Auto4.100.060.168.10441222-43
1111SyracuseBIGEAST3At-Large4.030.580.158.0346822-42
1212FloridaSEC3Auto3.95-0.020.167.9553121-41
1313GeorgetownBIGEAST4At-Large3.800.870.167.80602920-44
1414WisconsinBIG104At-Large3.670.870.1411.671519-85
1515ButlerA-104At-Large3.380.150.138.38314021-55
1616Kansas StateBIG124At-Large3.060.480.128.06453920-54
1717Ohio StateBIG105At-Large2.950.620.119.956919-75
1818MarquetteBIGEAST5At-Large2.930.980.128.93191819-64
1919MinnesotaBIG105At-Large2.530.270.0911.5321018-98
2020IllinoisBIG105At-Large2.480.440.1010.4852718-810
2121Wichita StateMVC6At-Large2.271.040.087.27783023-510
2222Notre DameBIGEAST6At-Large2.180.440.088.18383421-66
2323MemphisC-USA6Auto2.140.240.085.141504723-36
2424OregonPAC126At-Large1.980.410.086.98863521-56
2525Colorado StateMWC7Auto1.970.080.086.97871519-55
2626PittsburghBIGEAST7At-Large1.71-0.870.068.7124720-76
2727Oklahoma StateBIG127At-Large1.31-0.240.057.31762519-64
2828CreightonMVC7Auto1.250.460.047.25792222-68
2929MissouriSEC8At-Large1.210.420.058.21362819-79
3030North Carolina StateACC8At-Large1.200.180.058.20373719-77
3131ConnecticutBIGEAST8At-Large1.10-0.750.058.10433217-7NULL
3232Nevada-Las VegasMWC8At-Large1.020.920.048.02473619-77
3333San Diego StateMWC9At-Large0.96-0.080.047.96502417-77
3434CincinnatiBIGEAST9At-Large0.96-0.610.047.96512319-78
3535Saint Mary's (CA)WCC9At-Large0.77-0.190.035.771231721-512
3636ColoradoPAC129At-Large0.73-0.240.038.73234417-89
3737Middle TennesseeSUNBELT10Auto0.680.120.034.681756623-412
3838OklahomaBIG1210At-Large0.57-0.090.028.57285117-89
3939UCLAPAC1210At-Large0.360.170.017.36744319-78
4040IowaBIG1010At-Large0.330.880.019.33122617-9NULL
4141Virginia CommonwealthA-1011At-Large0.220.070.016.221102021-67
4242Saint LouisA-1011Auto0.180.570.015.181481920-59
4343North CarolinaACC11At-Large0.170.720.018.17394117-810
4444Louisiana TechWAC11At-Large0.030.330.003.033108823-313
4545La SalleA-1012At-Large-0.110.170.005.891185618-610
4646AkronMAC12Auto-0.120.04-0.013.882395420-413
4747BucknellPATRIOT12Auto-0.36-0.62-0.014.641828721-513
4848KentuckySEC12At-LargeYes-0.44-0.35-0.027.56662118-8NULL
4949TempleA-1013At-LargeYes-0.50-0.56-0.027.50687317-8NULL
5050Iowa StateBIG12NULLAt-LargeYes-0.630.69-0.027.37734218-811
5151MississippiSECNULLAt-LargeYes-0.64-0.72-0.026.361013119-711
5252Stephen F. AustinSLAND13Auto-0.65-0.75-0.032.353388018-3NULL
5953BelmontOVC13Auto-1.14-0.76-0.054.861645519-612
6754HarvardIVY13Auto-2.090.16-0.104.911619614-714
7755North Dakota StateSUMMIT14Auto-2.60-0.92-0.104.402045718-7NULL
7956Stony BrookA-EAST14Auto-2.620.08-0.103.3828510019-614
8257DavidsonSOUTHERN14Auto-2.760.27-0.114.242167819-714
8558DenverWAC14Auto-2.890.42-0.125.111526217-8NULL
8759DetroitHORIZON15Auto-2.960.54-0.126.041145216-9NULL
8860Weber StateBIGSKY15Auto-3.000.07-0.142.0034612417-5NULL
11461BryantNEC15Auto-4.58-1.75-0.193.4228317516-8NULL
11662Florida Gulf CoastA-SUN15Auto-4.75-0.90-0.184.2521516917-9NULL
11963North Carolina CentralMEAC16Auto-4.89-0.90-0.213.1130519115-8NULL
13764PacificBIGWEST16Auto-5.64-0.74-0.245.3614214113-11NULL
13865Charleston SouthernBIGSOUTH16AutoYes-5.720.20-0.273.2829214512-9NULL
15466George MasonCAA16AutoYes-6.59-0.70-0.244.4120314316-11NULL
18067IonaMAACNULLAutoYes-7.54-1.57-0.284.4620011015-12NULL
19368Texas SouthernSWACNULLAutoYes-8.450.01-0.315.5513120213-14NULL
53NULLBoise StateMWCNULLOut-0.67-0.17-0.037.33757115-8NULL
54NULLArizona StatePAC12NULLOut-0.710.77-0.036.291066820-711
55NULLSouthern MississippiC-USANULLOut-0.750.35-0.035.251478919-6NULL
56NULLCaliforniaPAC12NULLOut-0.780.45-0.038.22356416-912
57NULLCharlotteA-10NULLOut-0.93-0.22-0.046.0711310118-7NULL
58NULLVillanovaBIGEASTNULLOut-0.930.81-0.049.07164916-1012
60NULLVirginiaACCNULLOut-1.54-0.55-0.066.46964618-811
61NULLMarylandACCNULLOut-1.540.06-0.066.46976118-8NULL
62NULLAlabamaSECNULLOut-1.600.09-0.066.40997017-8NULL
63NULLWyomingMWCNULLOut-1.66-0.17-0.076.341035316-8NULL
64NULLValparaisoHORIZONNULLOut-1.88-0.52-0.075.121516520-714
65NULLArkansasSECNULLOut-1.910.40-0.087.09825016-9NULL
66NULLBrigham YoungWCCNULLOut-2.070.03-0.085.931174818-8NULL
68NULLNorthern IowaMVCNULLOut-2.090.44-0.088.91206316-11NULL
69NULLAir ForceMWCNULLOut-2.16-0.97-0.097.84569413-10NULL
70NULLMontanaBIGSKYNULLOut-2.17-0.65-0.102.8331818017-515
71NULLBaylorBIG12NULLOut-2.17-1.04-0.097.83573815-1011
72NULLSt. John's (NY)BIGEASTNULLOut-2.170.01-0.087.83588216-10NULL
73NULLOhioMACNULLOut-2.230.08-0.093.772468120-6NULL
74NULLTennesseeSECNULLOut-2.360.55-0.097.64635915-10NULL
75NULLUtah StateWACNULLOut-2.36-0.59-0.103.6426111617-6NULL
76NULLEastern KentuckyOVCNULLOut-2.520.07-0.103.4827912320-6NULL
78NULLMassachusettsA-10NULLOut-2.62-1.67-0.106.381009516-9NULL
80NULLStanfordPAC12NULLOut-2.65-1.55-0.108.35324515-11NULL
81NULLIndiana StateMVCNULLOut-2.73-1.29-0.118.27347915-11NULL
83NULLLehighPATRIOTNULLOut-2.86-1.75-0.124.1421813217-7NULL
84NULLSanta ClaraWCCNULLOut-2.86-0.02-0.116.141117217-9NULL
86NULLNorthwestern StateSLANDNULLOut-2.920.20-0.143.0830613915-615
89NULLLouisiana StateSECNULLOut-3.01-0.21-0.135.9911611515-9NULL
90NULLCollege of CharlestonSOUTHERNNULLOut-3.04-0.72-0.113.9623015120-7NULL
91NULLTexas A&MSECNULLOut-3.05-0.45-0.126.958911116-10NULL
92NULLSouth Dakota StateSUMMITNULLOut-3.11-0.83-0.124.8916210418-813
93NULLWestern IllinoisSUMMITNULLOut-3.17-0.05-0.142.8331915017-6NULL
94NULLFlorida StateACCNULLOut-3.21-0.14-0.128.792210714-12NULL
95NULLLong Beach StateBIGWESTNULLOut-3.280.06-0.145.7212714415-915
96NULLRutgersBIGEASTNULLOut-3.30-1.06-0.138.702511713-12NULL
97NULLProvidenceBIGEASTNULLOut-3.300.20-0.138.70265814-12NULL
98NULLMurray StateOVCNULLOut-3.43-1.78-0.143.5726711317-7NULL
99NULLNorthwesternBIG10NULLOut-3.44-1.08-0.1310.5649013-14NULL
100NULLSaint Joseph'sA-10NULLOut-3.64-0.43-0.156.361028314-10NULL
101NULLXavierA-10NULLOut-3.75-0.25-0.156.251076715-10NULL
102NULLWashingtonPAC12NULLOut-3.75-0.04-0.149.25158514-13NULL
103NULLRichmondA-10NULLOut-3.850.12-0.157.15819915-11NULL
104NULLNew Mexico StateWACNULLOut-4.18-0.58-0.164.821697717-9NULL
105NULLNebraskaBIG10NULLOut-4.24-0.44-0.169.76712212-14NULL
106NULLPurdueBIG10NULLOut-4.29-0.05-0.179.7187512-14NULL
107NULLCentral FloridaC-USANULLOut-4.35-1.60-0.174.6518112116-9NULL
108NULLGeorgia TechACCNULLOut-4.38-1.23-0.186.62938614-11NULL
109NULLWestern MichiganMACNULLOut-4.430.01-0.184.5718913715-9NULL
110NULLWright StateHORIZONNULLOut-4.490.11-0.174.5119613317-9NULL
111NULLDaytonA-10NULLOut-4.550.21-0.186.45986914-11NULL
112NULLIllinois StateMVCNULLOut-4.57-1.24-0.167.43716016-12NULL
113NULLSouthern CaliforniaPAC12NULLOut-4.580.17-0.189.42119212-14NULL
115NULLCanisiusMAACNULLOut-4.60-0.68-0.175.4013712517-10NULL
117NULLWest VirginiaBIG12NULLOut-4.84-0.30-0.198.16408413-13NULL
118NULLTexasBIG12NULLOut-4.89-0.08-0.208.114210512-13NULL
120NULLClemsonACCNULLOut-4.94-0.08-0.207.06857613-12NULL
121NULLElonSOUTHERNNULLOut-5.040.04-0.212.9631317216-8NULL
122NULLTexas-ArlingtonWACNULLOut-5.040.34-0.213.9623218315-9NULL
123NULLSavannah StateMEACNULLOut-5.160.08-0.224.8416725914-10NULL
124NULLGeorgiaSECNULLOut-5.23-0.29-0.217.776113112-13NULL
125NULLLoyola (MD)MAACNULLOut-5.230.15-0.193.7724714219-9NULL
126NULLOral RobertsSLANDNULLOut-5.330.05-0.204.6717713816-10NULL
127NULLTulaneC-USANULLOut-5.330.04-0.213.6725915216-9NULL
128NULLSeton HallBIGEASTNULLOut-5.35-0.96-0.208.652711413-14NULL
129NULLSouthernSWACNULLOut-5.370.01-0.222.6333022016-816
130NULLVermontA-EASTNULLOut-5.38-0.59-0.213.6226214717-9NULL
131NULLTennessee StateOVCNULLOut-5.470.29-0.225.5313217714-11NULL
132NULLMercerA-SUNNULLOut-5.510.17-0.223.4927620116-916
133NULLEvansvilleMVCNULLOut-5.54-0.34-0.217.46699714-13NULL
134NULLPrincetonIVYNULLOut-5.59-0.56-0.283.412849811-9NULL
135NULLTexas-El PasoC-USANULLOut-5.60-0.45-0.225.4013911914-11NULL
136NULLSt. BonaventureA-10NULLOut-5.61-0.48-0.227.397210912-13NULL
139NULLArkansas StateSUNBELTNULLOut-5.960.07-0.243.0430910616-9NULL
140NULLEast CarolinaC-USANULLOut-5.99-0.69-0.294.0122615611-10NULL
141NULLAlbany (NY)A-EASTNULLOut-6.03-0.74-0.222.9731117019-9NULL
142NULLOregon StatePAC12NULLOut-6.11-0.54-0.246.899010213-13NULL
143NULLBradleyMVCNULLOut-6.13-0.54-0.226.879111815-13NULL
144NULLRobert MorrisNECNULLOut-6.14-0.82-0.232.8631720018-916
145NULLGreen BayHORIZONNULLOut-6.170.36-0.245.8312110814-12NULL
146NULLGeorge WashingtonA-10NULLOut-6.25-0.21-0.265.751249112-12NULL
147NULLNorfolk StateMEACNULLOut-6.300.05-0.233.7025623117-1016
148NULLFairfieldMAACNULLOut-6.340.13-0.234.6618012817-11NULL
149NULLSouth AlabamaSUNBELTNULLOut-6.340.04-0.282.6632716814-9NULL
150NULLNortheasternCAANULLOut-6.40-0.89-0.233.6026315718-1016
151NULLWagnerNECNULLOut-6.410.08-0.263.5926521515-10NULL
152NULLVirginia TechACCNULLOut-6.41-0.33-0.267.596516111-14NULL
153NULLNevadaMWCNULLOut-6.53-0.92-0.276.479510311-13NULL
155NULLToledoMACNULLOut-6.620.10-0.294.3820818112-11NULL
156NULLDelawareCAANULLOut-6.70-0.94-0.256.3010414614-13NULL
157NULLIllinois-ChicagoHORIZONNULLOut-6.70-1.70-0.265.3014419014-12NULL
158NULLNiagaraMAACNULLOut-6.700.22-0.254.3021013516-1115
159NULLJacksonville StateOVCNULLOut-6.77-1.54-0.283.2329621014-10NULL
160NULLDrakeMVCNULLOut-6.84-0.67-0.268.164113011-15NULL
161NULLWake ForestACCNULLOut-6.85-0.84-0.277.158013411-14NULL
162NULLOaklandSUMMITNULLOut-6.93-0.78-0.267.078416313-14NULL
163NULLDePaulBIGEASTNULLOut-7.04-0.16-0.277.965211211-15NULL
164NULLBoston CollegeACCNULLOut-7.05-0.41-0.276.95887412-14NULL
165NULLGardner-WebbBIGSOUTHNULLOut-7.080.13-0.283.9223418414-11NULL
166NULLSouth FloridaBIGEASTNULLOut-7.11-0.83-0.278.892112010-16NULL
167NULLVanderbiltSECNULLOut-7.12-0.12-0.287.885512710-15NULL
168NULLHawaiiBIGWESTNULLOut-7.23-1.57-0.293.7724818514-11NULL
169NULLBoston UniversityA-EASTNULLOut-7.240.08-0.273.7624915916-11NULL
170NULLTulsaC-USANULLOut-7.26-0.89-0.294.7417320613-12NULL
171NULLSouth CarolinaSECNULLOut-7.28-0.99-0.285.7212517413-13NULL
172NULLCornellIVYNULLOut-7.320.26-0.314.6817619612-12NULL
173NULLFlorida InternationalSUNBELTNULLOut-7.45-0.86-0.294.5519020714-12NULL
174NULLUtahPAC12NULLOut-7.48-0.45-0.336.52941369-14NULL
175NULLCal PolyBIGWESTNULLOut-7.48-0.80-0.344.5219115410-12NULL
176NULLYoungstown StateHORIZONNULLOut-7.48-0.87-0.314.5219214812-12NULL
177NULLPenn StateBIG10NULLOut-7.49-0.68-0.309.51101268-17NULL
178NULLArkansas-Little RockSUNBELTNULLOut-7.49-1.41-0.294.5119522514-12NULL
179NULLHoustonC-USANULLOut-7.52-1.25-0.312.4833520814-10NULL
181NULLSan FranciscoWCCNULLOut-7.56-1.31-0.317.44701299-15NULL
182NULLHigh PointBIGSOUTHNULLOut-7.690.13-0.322.3134021914-1016
183NULLSan DiegoWCCNULLOut-7.71-0.47-0.316.2910519511-14NULL
184NULLKent StateMACNULLOut-7.88-0.53-0.324.1222015513-12NULL
185NULLFresno StateMWCNULLOut-8.02-0.05-0.357.98481407-16NULL
186NULLPepperdineWCCNULLOut-8.13-0.43-0.335.8711918911-14NULL
187NULLNorth Carolina-AshevilleBIGSOUTHNULLOut-8.14-1.81-0.334.8616617612-13NULL
188NULLMount St. Mary'sNECNULLOut-8.250.08-0.334.7517222112-13NULL
189NULLCalifornia-IrvineBIGWESTNULLOut-8.360.12-0.324.6418318713-13NULL
190NULLTowsonCAANULLOut-8.360.04-0.314.6418417814-13NULL
191NULLWashington StatePAC12NULLOut-8.37-1.13-0.317.63649311-16NULL
192NULLLong Island UniversityNECNULLOut-8.380.06-0.322.6233118615-11NULL
194NULLSouthern IllinoisMVCNULLOut-8.47-0.19-0.337.536715310-16NULL
195NULLHartfordA-EASTNULLOut-8.47-0.77-0.313.5327222715-12NULL
196NULLDelaware StateMEACNULLOut-8.490.03-0.374.5119328310-13NULL
197NULLLoyola (IL)HORIZONNULLOut-8.50-0.73-0.334.5019715813-13NULL
198NULLAlabama-BirminghamC-USANULLOut-8.530.01-0.345.4713416611-14NULL
199NULLNJITGWCNULLOut-8.530.01-0.412.4733628410-11NULL
200NULLSoutheastern LouisianaSLANDNULLOut-8.63-1.70-0.395.371412878-14NULL
201NULLWestern KentuckySUNBELTNULLOut-8.69-1.78-0.335.3114316412-14NULL
202NULLEastern MichiganMACNULLOut-8.71-0.43-0.385.291452939-14NULL
203NULLArkansas-Pine BluffSWACNULLOut-8.74-0.83-0.325.2614631913-14NULL
204NULLTexas TechBIG12NULLOut-8.76-1.30-0.376.241081989-15NULL
205NULLSam Houston StateSLANDNULLOut-8.80-1.51-0.383.2030024311-12NULL
206NULLLafayettePATRIOTNULLOut-9.020.26-0.334.9815723813-14NULL
207NULLColumbiaIVYNULLOut-9.14-1.74-0.462.863161608-12NULL
208NULLRiderMAACNULLOut-9.180.04-0.333.8224220315-13NULL
209NULLMarshallC-USANULLOut-9.28-0.41-0.365.7212617311-15NULL
210NULLMcNeese StateSLANDNULLOut-9.280.03-0.443.722522978-13NULL
211NULLCoastal CarolinaBIGSOUTHNULLOut-9.34-0.90-0.422.6632623010-12NULL
212NULLYaleIVYNULLOut-9.37-0.89-0.415.631292058-15NULL
213NULLJames MadisonCAANULLOut-9.40-0.51-0.323.6026416516-13NULL
214NULLCal State FullertonBIGWESTNULLOut-9.47-0.76-0.393.5327118811-13NULL
215NULLBrownIVYNULLOut-9.51-0.89-0.453.492752268-13NULL
216NULLCal State NorthridgeBIGWESTNULLOut-9.72-1.57-0.394.2821120911-14NULL
217NULLCalifornia-DavisBIGWESTNULLOut-9.72-0.66-0.394.2821219411-14NULL
218NULLAuburnSECNULLOut-9.73-1.05-0.377.27771499-17NULL
219NULLSouthern MethodistC-USANULLOut-9.78-0.76-0.393.2229821412-13NULL
220NULLCleveland StateHORIZONNULLOut-9.91-1.78-0.386.0911223210-16NULL
221NULLMorehead StateOVCNULLOut-9.93-0.83-0.385.0715422811-15NULL
222NULLTexas ChristianBIG12NULLOut-9.98-1.23-0.406.021152349-16NULL
223NULLMississippi StateSECNULLOut-10.02-1.12-0.407.98492137-18NULL
224NULLSouth Carolina UpstateA-SUNNULLOut-10.04-0.95-0.393.9623121112-14NULL
225NULLPortlandWCCNULLOut-10.06-0.12-0.397.94542228-18NULL
226NULLBall StateMACNULLOut-10.08-0.99-0.443.922352469-14NULL
227NULLSacramento StateBIGSKYNULLOut-10.15-1.86-0.461.8534726710-12NULL
228NULLRhode IslandA-10NULLOut-10.21-0.62-0.416.79921628-17NULL
229NULLArmyPATRIOTNULLOut-10.260.05-0.412.7432318212-13NULL
230NULLCentral Connecticut StateNECNULLOut-10.28-1.75-0.433.7225124410-14NULL
231NULLSoutheast Missouri StateOVCNULLOut-10.42-0.83-0.403.5826624012-14NULL
232NULLJacksonvilleA-SUNNULLOut-10.460.02-0.423.5427027811-14NULL
233NULLQuinnipiacNECNULLOut-10.480.05-0.422.5233322912-13NULL
234NULLCal State BakersfieldINDEPNULLOut-10.48-0.85-0.445.521332558-16NULL
235NULLStetsonA-SUNNULLOut-10.490.10-0.423.5127325811-14NULL
236NULLNorth DakotaBIGSKYNULLOut-10.53-0.90-0.443.4728127010-14NULL
237NULLDrexelCAANULLOut-10.61-0.92-0.414.3920617111-15NULL
238NULLWilliam & MaryCAANULLOut-10.660.16-0.433.3428919311-14NULL
239NULLBuffaloMACNULLOut-10.720.08-0.454.282131999-15NULL
240NULLLoyola MarymountWCCNULLOut-10.77-1.36-0.456.231092047-17NULL
241NULLBowling Green StateMACNULLOut-10.84-0.42-0.474.162172168-15NULL
242NULLIdahoWACNULLOut-10.86-1.79-0.455.141491678-16NULL
243NULLLipscombA-SUNNULLOut-10.88-0.92-0.454.122213069-15NULL
244NULLDuquesneA-10NULLOut-10.92-0.76-0.427.08831928-18NULL
245NULLNorth Carolina A&TMEACNULLOut-10.95-1.90-0.423.0530828112-14NULL
246NULLFlorida AtlanticSUNBELTNULLOut-10.96-0.80-0.415.0415626411-16NULL
247NULLManhattanMAACNULLOut-11.08-0.80-0.434.9215921710-16NULL
248NULLGeorgia StateCAANULLOut-11.08-0.58-0.403.9223617913-15NULL
249NULLWinthropBIGSOUTHNULLOut-11.09-1.80-0.483.912382798-15NULL
250NULLCalifornia-Santa BarbaraBIGWESTNULLOut-11.17-1.71-0.495.831222246-17NULL
251NULLMorgan StateMEACNULLOut-11.23-0.92-0.492.773222489-14NULL
252NULLHoly CrossPATRIOTNULLOut-11.29-1.88-0.433.7125524211-15NULL
253NULLCampbellBIGSOUTHNULLOut-11.320.10-0.453.6825828610-15NULL
254NULLCentral MichiganMACNULLOut-11.34-0.95-0.474.661792378-16NULL
255NULLNorthern ArizonaBIGSKYNULLOut-11.37-0.86-0.444.6318628010-16NULL
256NULLMiami (OH)MACNULLOut-11.38-0.96-0.494.621872637-16NULL
257NULLHouston BaptistGWCNULLOut-11.490.03-0.552.513343327-14NULL
258NULLNew OrleansINDEPNULLOut-11.57NULL-0.642.433373394-14NULL
259NULLSouthern UtahBIGSKYNULLOut-11.58-1.88-0.503.422823128-15NULL
260NULLAmericanPATRIOTNULLOut-11.60-0.95-0.454.4020524510-16NULL
261NULLNorth FloridaA-SUNNULLOut-11.62-0.94-0.455.381402539-17NULL
262NULLSt. Francis (NY)NECNULLOut-11.65-0.93-0.473.3528723510-15NULL
263NULLVirginia Military InstituteBIGSOUTHNULLOut-11.69-1.91-0.532.313392508-14NULL
264NULLNorthern KentuckyA-SUNNULLOut-11.72-1.92-0.532.283422858-14NULL
265NULLUtah ValleyGWCNULLOut-11.74-0.94-0.512.263433019-14NULL
266NULLSan Jose StateWACNULLOut-11.74-1.59-0.494.262142668-16NULL
267NULLSacred HeartNECNULLOut-11.75-1.95-0.493.252942699-15NULL
268NULLSouthern Illinois-EdwardsvilleOVCNULLOut-11.78-1.82-0.543.222972987-15NULL
269NULLAppalachian StateSOUTHERNNULLOut-11.82-1.72-0.473.1830228210-15NULL
270NULLMontana StateBIGSKYNULLOut-11.90-1.65-0.542.103442758-14NULL
271NULLHamptonMEACNULLOut-11.97-0.96-0.482.0334530211-14NULL
272NULLFordhamA-10NULLOut-12.01-1.24-0.448.99172416-21NULL
273NULLIPFWSUMMITNULLOut-12.090.20-0.453.9123725411-16NULL
274NULLWestern CarolinaSOUTHERNNULLOut-12.09-1.66-0.464.911602609-17NULL
275NULLSamfordSOUTHERNNULLOut-12.120.04-0.474.881632929-17NULL
276NULLNeb. OmahaSUMMITNULLOut-12.140.01-0.474.861653119-17NULL
277NULLTennessee TechOVCNULLOut-12.17-1.57-0.533.832402717-16NULL
278NULLMissouri StateMVCNULLOut-12.20-1.54-0.477.80591976-20NULL
279NULLJackson StateSWACNULLOut-12.290.00-0.533.712533347-16NULL
280NULLNorthern ColoradoBIGSKYNULLOut-12.29-0.95-0.533.712542747-16NULL
281NULLBethune-CookmanMEACNULLOut-12.310.01-0.513.692572898-16NULL
282NULLLouisiana-LafayetteSUNBELTNULLOut-12.34-0.77-0.474.661782129-17NULL
283NULLTexas-Pan AmericanGWCNULLOut-12.36-1.79-0.512.643293279-15NULL
284NULLNicholls StateSLANDNULLOut-12.40-1.73-0.524.601882517-17NULL
285NULLDartmouthIVYNULLOut-12.46-1.84-0.593.542693035-16NULL
286NULLNorth TexasSUNBELTNULLOut-12.49-0.88-0.484.511942189-17NULL
287NULLWoffordSOUTHERNNULLOut-12.51-0.93-0.464.4919927210-17NULL
288NULLColgatePATRIOTNULLOut-12.55-0.73-0.455.4513526110-18NULL
289NULLSouth DakotaSUMMITNULLOut-12.59-1.92-0.525.411362396-18NULL
290NULLNorth Carolina-WilmingtonCAANULLOut-12.59-0.82-0.484.412012959-17NULL
291NULLGeorgia SouthernSOUTHERNNULLOut-12.67-0.73-0.513.332903079-16NULL
292NULLCentral ArkansasSLANDNULLOut-12.70-2.70-0.553.302913057-16NULL
293NULLMaineA-EASTNULLOut-12.74-0.74-0.493.2629325610-16NULL
294NULLChattanoogaSOUTHERNNULLOut-12.93-0.93-0.523.073072919-16NULL
295NULLMonmouthNECNULLOut-12.99-0.93-0.484.0122529410-17NULL
296NULLPennsylvaniaIVYNULLOut-13.04-0.56-0.544.961582366-18NULL
297NULLAlabama A&MSWACNULLOut-13.11-0.86-0.572.893143417-16NULL
298NULLRadfordBIGSOUTHNULLOut-13.19-1.97-0.532.813202659-16NULL
299NULLTroySUNBELTNULLOut-13.20-0.93-0.492.8032126211-16NULL
300NULLChicago StateGWCNULLOut-13.24-0.96-0.604.761713284-18NULL
301NULLPortland StateBIGSKYNULLOut-13.330.02-0.632.673252735-16NULL
302NULLPrairie ViewSWACNULLOut-13.35-0.99-0.562.653283408-16NULL
303NULLSeattleWACNULLOut-13.36-1.79-0.564.641852236-18NULL
304NULLTennessee-MartinOVCNULLOut-13.86-0.97-0.604.142193225-18NULL
305NULLAlabama StateSWACNULLOut-14.06-0.86-0.543.942333338-18NULL
306NULLEast Tennessee StateA-SUNNULLOut-14.17-0.95-0.524.831683158-19NULL
307NULLTexas-San AntonioWACNULLOut-14.210.09-0.574.791702576-19NULL
308NULLNew HampshireA-EASTNULLOut-14.43-1.66-0.603.572682476-18NULL
309NULLLouisiana-MonroeSUNBELTNULLOut-14.52-0.84-0.663.482773134-18NULL
310NULLTexas StateWACNULLOut-14.67-0.98-0.594.332092526-19NULL
311NULLSaint Peter'sMAACNULLOut-14.82-1.75-0.573.183032778-18NULL
312NULLEastern WashingtonBIGSKYNULLOut-14.87-0.92-0.573.133042968-18NULL
313NULLAlcorn StateSWACNULLOut-14.92-1.99-0.535.081533368-20NULL
314NULLNorthern IllinoisMACNULLOut-15.00-0.73-0.654.002283084-19NULL
315NULLRiceC-USANULLOut-15.00-0.79-0.654.002293234-19NULL
316NULLEastern IllinoisOVCNULLOut-15.22-1.63-0.563.782442908-19NULL
317NULLNorth Carolina-GreensboroSOUTHERNNULLOut-15.32-1.96-0.672.683242685-18NULL
318NULLSouth Carolina StateMEACNULLOut-15.53-0.94-0.713.472803453-19NULL
319NULLHowardMEACNULLOut-15.59-1.92-0.624.412023175-20NULL
320NULLMissouri-Kansas CitySUMMITNULLOut-15.60-1.92-0.585.401383166-21NULL
321NULLMaristMAACNULLOut-15.61-1.77-0.584.392072497-20NULL
322NULLFlorida A&MMEACNULLOut-15.63-0.97-0.653.372863305-19NULL
323NULLCitadelSOUTHERNNULLOut-15.66-1.74-0.653.342883295-19NULL
324NULLCalifornia-RiversideBIGWESTNULLOut-15.77-0.72-0.693.232953004-19NULL
325NULLTexas A&M-Corpus ChristiSLANDNULLOut-15.96-1.62-0.694.042232993-20NULL
326NULLFairleigh DickinsonNECNULLOut-16.00-1.80-0.594.002273377-20NULL
327NULLLibertyBIGSOUTHNULLOut-16.03-1.95-0.642.973123106-19NULL
328NULLMilwaukeeHORIZONNULLOut-16.16-1.60-0.605.841202765-22NULL
329NULLMaryland-Baltimore CountyA-EASTNULLOut-16.21-0.61-0.653.792433255-20NULL
330NULLIUPUISUMMITNULLOut-16.32-1.05-0.635.681283144-22NULL
331NULLPresbyterianBIGSOUTHNULLOut-16.51-0.73-0.664.491983354-21NULL
332NULLNavyPATRIOTNULLOut-16.70-0.92-0.642.303413267-19NULL
333NULLIdaho StateBIGSKYNULLOut-16.79-0.93-0.703.212993184-20NULL
334NULLMississippi Valley StateSWACNULLOut-16.91-1.83-0.684.092223464-21NULL
335NULLCoppin StateMEACNULLOut-16.94-1.92-0.655.061553244-22NULL
336NULLAustin PeayOVCNULLOut-16.98-0.57-0.654.022243045-21NULL
337NULLFurmanSOUTHERNNULLOut-17.13-2.44-0.712.873153314-20NULL
338NULLMaryland-Eastern ShoreMEACNULLOut-17.18-1.96-0.753.822413422-21NULL
339NULLLongwoodBIGSOUTHNULLOut-17.270.03-0.664.731743384-22NULL
340NULLLamarSLANDNULLOut-17.41-1.97-0.675.591303433-23NULL
341NULLSienaMAACNULLOut-17.52-1.62-0.653.482782886-21NULL
342NULLHofstraCAANULLOut-18.23-2.67-0.683.772453095-22NULL
343NULLSaint Francis (PA)NECNULLOut-18.82-0.82-0.753.183013213-22NULL
344NULLOld DominionCAANULLOut-19.25-0.94-0.713.752502334-23NULL
345NULLKennesaw StateA-SUNNULLOut-19.34-1.83-0.743.662603203-23NULL
346NULLBinghamtonA-EASTNULLOut-19.50-0.98-0.783.502743442-23NULL
347NULLGramblingSWACNULLOut-20.40-0.98-0.892.603323470-23NULL

Simulation

How teams currently stand is all fine and good, but what we really care about his how they will end up. To do that, I simulate all remaining games including conference tournaments, then calculate an Achievement S-Curve for each of the 1,000 simulation runs. This combines how a team has done thus far with how we expect them to do going forward based on their ability, their schedule, and their conference tournament.

The table below shows the results of the simulation. In% is how often the team makes the tournament either as an at-large team or an auto bid. Auto% is how often they win their conference’s automatic bid. At-Large% is how often the team receives an at-large berth ONLY in the scenarios where they did not win the auto bid. The “Sim” columns are the average S-Curve results from the sim while the “Cur” columns are from the current Achievement S-Curve.

TeamConfPred RkIn%Auto%At-Large%Sim SeedSim AchS%1-seedSim S-Curve RkCur ScoreCur SeedCur S-Curve Rk
IndianaBIG102100.044.4100.01.19.1941.86.281608148011
MichiganBIG104100.017.1100.01.37.7723.55.585052151125
DukeACC13100.042.4100.01.57.3634.55.960496334212
Michigan StateBIG1011100.06.4100.02.06.6346.45.619880962814
GonzagaWCC6100.063.5100.01.96.5326.25.669005780813
FloridaSEC1100.077.4100.02.06.4276.53.9520652945312
LouisvilleBIGEAST3100.038.7100.02.26.3307.44.306865810439
Miami (FL)ACC16100.029.6100.02.36.1217.95.382090902826
SyracuseBIGEAST8100.017.8100.02.85.5139.94.0273980837311
KansasBIG1214100.042.4100.03.15.2411.14.334011143428
ArizonaPAC1212100.047.7100.03.25.1311.24.0991457530310
WisconsinBIG105100.018.0100.03.35.1511.53.6705941112414
New MexicoMWC32100.012.1100.03.84.6213.64.459233967227
Ohio StateBIG109100.06.2100.04.34.1215.72.9473922762517
GeorgetownBIGEAST29100.04.2100.04.34.1115.63.7999698219413
MarquetteBIGEAST18100.08.2100.04.73.8117.22.9333235966518
MinnesotaBIG1010100.05.5100.04.93.6018.02.5314803201519
ButlerA-1039100.011.8100.05.33.3NULL19.83.3811244515415
PittsburghBIGEAST7100.021.8100.05.63.1NULL20.91.7121030593726
Kansas StateBIG1238100.011.2100.05.73.0NULL21.43.0566993388416
Colorado StateMWC15100.032.4100.05.82.9NULL21.91.9682486437725
IllinoisBIG1027100.01.4100.06.02.8NULL22.42.4837975679520
Wichita StateMVC30100.032.1100.06.52.4NULL24.72.2703058453621
Notre DameBIGEAST33100.03.4100.06.82.3NULL25.62.1758063034622
OregonPAC123499.918.199.97.02.1NULL26.71.9783474744624
Oklahoma StateBIG122599.820.899.77.51.8NULL28.81.3109678498727
MemphisC-USA4698.650.997.17.51.8NULL29.12.1360869298623
CreightonMVC2299.541.999.17.61.8NULL29.11.2518823344728
MissouriSEC2899.45.299.47.81.6NULL30.11.2094462480829
CincinnatiBIGEAST2398.54.398.48.11.5NULL31.20.9587659657934
San Diego StateMWC2498.818.398.58.21.4NULL31.70.9635140733933
Saint Mary's (CA)WCC1799.029.698.68.21.3NULL31.80.7674428595935
North Carolina StateACC3696.710.196.38.41.2NULL33.31.1965193055830
Nevada-Las VegasMWC3597.431.896.28.71.1NULL34.01.0234508588832
Saint LouisA-101993.635.890.08.51.0NULL34.40.18482353171142
Virginia CommonwealthA-102096.132.194.39.00.8NULL35.70.21965627231141
IowaBIG102695.11.095.19.20.7NULL36.60.32629846501040
ColoradoPAC124389.56.788.79.40.4NULL38.80.7263234935936
Middle TennesseeSUNBELT6592.959.682.49.80.3NULL39.40.67985571791037
KentuckySEC2186.68.485.49.80.2NULL41.0-0.43970453211248
North CarolinaACC4082.48.080.99.80.1NULL41.80.16837170331143
UCLAPAC124281.710.879.59.60.1NULL41.40.36230614091039
OklahomaBIG125083.25.882.29.90.0NULL42.20.57103914021038
MississippiSEC3171.05.769.210.5-0.4NULL46.1-0.6367037170NULL51
AkronMAC5376.856.546.710.9-0.5NULL46.9-0.12338044481246
BucknellPATRIOT8678.174.215.111.5-0.6NULL47.2-0.35680842151247
La SalleA-105563.67.260.810.6-0.6NULL47.6-0.10500623191245
Iowa StateBIG124160.98.057.510.5-0.7NULL48.3-0.6258807153NULL50
Louisiana TechWAC8755.425.740.011.0-0.9NULL49.70.02834749141144
Stephen F. AustinSLAND7969.765.013.411.9-1.1NULL52.0-0.65342173891352
BelmontOVC5462.562.30.512.3-1.3NULL53.9-1.13847170681359
TempleA-107236.82.335.310.9-1.4NULL54.6-0.50286944541349
VillanovaBIGEAST4836.50.236.411.0-1.4NULL54.5-0.9314740119NULL58
Boise StateMWC7034.72.233.211.0-1.5NULL55.2-0.6702755423NULL53
Arizona StatePAC126730.13.727.410.9-1.5NULL55.1-0.7073332666NULL54
CaliforniaPAC126333.94.330.910.9-1.6NULL56.6-0.7806818753NULL56
Southern MississippiC-USA8835.825.813.512.0-1.7NULL58.0-0.7523181117NULL55
VirginiaACC4521.24.417.611.1-2.0NULL61.6-1.5369420711NULL60
WyomingMWC5216.62.214.711.5-2.1NULL62.8-1.6592018282NULL63
ValparaisoHORIZON6455.455.40.012.9-2.2NULL63.4-1.8817686035NULL64
BaylorBIG123720.79.912.011.6-2.2NULL64.1-2.1733169292NULL71
AlabamaSEC6913.71.512.411.7-2.2NULL63.3-1.5999842242NULL62
MarylandACC6014.91.913.311.3-2.3NULL64.5-1.5408459142NULL61
ArkansasSEC4912.91.311.811.5-2.4NULL65.9-1.9149244312NULL65
Brigham YoungWCC478.53.45.311.9-2.4NULL65.6-2.0657114817NULL66
CharlotteA-101009.00.78.411.5-2.6NULL68.2-0.9286769692NULL57
Northern IowaMVC629.78.81.012.2-2.7NULL69.0-2.0927266365NULL68
North Dakota StateSUMMIT5655.755.70.013.4-2.9NULL71.1-2.60229924561477
StanfordPAC12448.65.63.211.8-3.0NULL73.2-2.6510836870NULL80
TennesseeSEC584.90.44.511.9-3.0NULL73.7-2.3597351241NULL74
DavidsonSOUTHERN7767.567.50.013.6-3.1NULL74.4-2.75960076661482
HarvardIVY9573.473.40.013.5-3.1NULL75.0-2.09235276791367
St. John's (NY)BIGEAST812.20.91.312.1-3.2NULL75.6-2.1747860477NULL72
Santa ClaraWCC713.43.40.012.6-3.2NULL74.9-2.8622522973NULL84
OhioMAC8033.533.50.013.3-3.2NULL75.0-2.2278750244NULL73
DetroitHORIZON5137.237.20.013.3-3.3NULL76.5-2.95908570031587
Air ForceMWC931.40.60.812.4-3.3NULL77.4-2.1607464527NULL69
DenverWAC6136.636.60.013.5-3.4NULL78.9-2.88820310861485
Indiana StateMVC785.65.60.012.8-3.4NULL78.5-2.7305906298NULL81
Stony BrookA-EAST9956.156.10.013.7-3.4NULL78.3-2.62318612201479
ProvidenceBIGEAST570.60.40.212.5-3.8NULL83.6-3.3032224707NULL97
MontanaBIGSKY17542.242.20.013.8-3.8NULL84.0-2.1683043800NULL70
LehighPATRIOT13019.619.60.013.5-3.8NULL83.3-2.8557810147NULL83
Eastern KentuckyOVC12111.511.50.013.5-3.8NULL83.6-2.5216056836NULL76
South Dakota StateSUMMIT10324.624.60.013.7-3.9NULL85.0-3.1054078058NULL92
Utah StateWAC1159.59.50.013.5-3.9NULL84.7-2.3602906029NULL75
Western IllinoisSUMMIT14811.011.00.013.8-4.0NULL87.3-3.1700062257NULL93
MassachusettsA-10940.80.70.112.7-4.0NULL86.9-2.6193416857NULL78
College of CharlestonSOUTHERN14915.915.90.013.8-4.0NULL86.4-3.0364031467NULL90
Murray StateOVC11221.621.60.013.8-4.1NULL88.4-3.4269941568NULL98
Weber StateBIGSKY12251.151.10.014.0-4.2NULL88.5-3.00460323721588
NorthwesternBIG10890.00.00.0NULL-4.3NULL91.0-3.4420166388NULL99
Northwestern StateSLAND13717.917.90.013.9-4.4NULL91.6-2.9201881574NULL86
Saint Joseph'sA-10821.41.40.013.4-4.5NULL93.8-3.6430625092NULL100
Texas A&MSEC1100.20.10.113.0-4.6NULL94.4-3.0542993781NULL91
WashingtonPAC12841.41.40.013.5-4.7NULL96.8-3.7495829872NULL102
XavierA-10665.35.20.113.4-4.7NULL95.7-3.7484971115NULL101
Louisiana StateSEC1140.20.00.212.0-4.8NULL97.9-3.0097895208NULL89
Florida StateACC1060.50.40.112.3-4.9NULL99.7-3.2147799463NULL94
RutgersBIGEAST1160.00.00.0NULL-4.9NULL98.7-3.3023640168NULL96
New Mexico StateWAC7625.625.60.014.2-4.9NULL99.4-4.1772718722NULL104
PurdueBIG10740.00.00.0NULL-5.0NULL100.7-4.2928819665NULL106
Illinois StateMVC598.08.00.013.9-5.0NULL100.8-4.5655317258NULL112
RichmondA-10980.60.60.012.8-5.1NULL101.9-3.8499980789NULL103
DaytonA-10681.01.00.013.8-5.3NULL105.0-4.5538603620NULL111
Long Beach StateBIGWEST14223.523.50.014.6-5.4NULL106.6-3.2847254834NULL95
Georgia TechACC850.90.90.013.4-5.6NULL109.3-4.3779139307NULL108
CanisiusMAAC12322.322.30.014.6-5.6NULL109.0-4.5963567639NULL115
NebraskaBIG101200.00.00.0NULL-5.6NULL108.7-4.2405183396NULL105
Florida Gulf CoastA-SUN16631.231.20.014.9-5.9NULL114.0-4.751876567915116
Wright StateHORIZON1312.42.40.014.3-5.9NULL113.7-4.4933251481NULL110
ClemsonACC751.11.10.013.5-6.0NULL115.7-4.9401071805NULL120
North Carolina CentralMEAC18539.439.40.015.0-6.0NULL115.7-4.890972872016119
Southern CaliforniaPAC12910.70.70.014.1-6.1NULL116.5-4.5824389549NULL113
BryantNEC17236.036.00.014.9-6.1NULL116.2-4.584196838315114
West VirginiaBIG12831.41.40.014.4-6.1NULL116.1-4.8406176604NULL117
Western MichiganMAC1355.55.50.014.5-6.1NULL116.4-4.4285506219NULL109
VermontA-EAST14522.622.60.014.9-6.4NULL121.0-5.3789766394NULL130
SouthernSWAC21376.476.40.015.4-6.4NULL121.4-5.3687585973NULL129
Seton HallBIGEAST1130.10.10.014.0-6.6NULL124.7-5.3502254581NULL128
TexasBIG121040.50.50.014.0-6.6NULL124.0-4.8892219114NULL118
Oral RobertsSLAND13614.814.80.015.0-6.6NULL124.7-5.3250139835NULL126
EvansvilleMVC962.02.00.014.7-6.6NULL124.0-5.5447937754NULL133
ElonSOUTHERN16913.213.20.015.0-6.7NULL126.6-5.0393937387NULL121
Loyola (MD)MAAC14013.513.50.015.2-6.8NULL128.1-5.2327920360NULL125
Arkansas StateSUNBELT10523.223.20.015.2-6.8NULL128.1-5.9632578794NULL139
St. BonaventureA-101080.30.30.014.3-6.8NULL127.1-5.6055890467NULL136
PrincetonIVY9722.922.90.015.0-6.9NULL129.4-5.5939214998NULL134
Tennessee StateOVC1743.63.60.015.1-7.0NULL131.7-5.4687629015NULL131
MercerA-SUN19543.443.40.015.4-7.2NULL133.4-5.5113831059NULL132
Charleston SouthernBIGSOUTH14332.732.70.015.4-7.2NULL134.7-5.720949637916138
Texas-El PasoC-USA1189.59.50.015.2-7.2NULL134.3-5.6043760204NULL135
Green BayHORIZON1073.83.80.015.1-7.3NULL134.8-6.1695359851NULL145
TulaneC-USA1503.83.80.015.1-7.3NULL136.1-5.3310633504NULL127
Texas-ArlingtonWAC1771.31.30.015.4-7.3NULL136.2-5.0439498071NULL122
BradleyMVC1171.01.00.014.6-7.4NULL137.8-6.1337696019NULL143
NortheasternCAA15527.327.30.015.6-7.5NULL138.3-6.4017783916NULL150
FairfieldMAAC12615.415.40.015.5-7.6NULL140.9-6.3392855945NULL148
George WashingtonA-10900.90.90.015.1-7.6NULL141.6-6.2498619262NULL146
GeorgiaSEC1290.00.00.0NULL-7.7NULL142.5-5.2301213469NULL124
Albany (NY)A-EAST16716.116.10.015.4-7.7NULL142.4-6.0296691750NULL141
NiagaraMAAC13319.719.70.015.6-7.7NULL142.8-6.7007441282NULL158
Oregon StatePAC121010.10.10.015.0-7.7NULL143.5-6.1100042906NULL142
PacificBIGWEST13921.421.40.015.6-7.7NULL143.2-5.643626181316137
OaklandSUMMIT1607.37.30.015.6-7.9NULL145.3-6.9343518640NULL162
Norfolk StateMEAC22420.520.50.015.7-7.9NULL146.4-6.3022958430NULL147
Robert MorrisNEC19423.623.60.015.6-7.9NULL145.9-6.1404970200NULL144
Boston CollegeACC731.21.20.015.1-7.9NULL147.3-7.0482793193NULL164
East CarolinaC-USA1542.42.40.015.2-7.9NULL146.1-5.9926241821NULL140
George MasonCAA14119.819.80.015.7-8.0NULL148.0-6.592567292716154
NevadaMWC1020.40.40.014.5-8.1NULL149.1-6.5251567646NULL153
Savannah StateMEAC25013.013.00.015.7-8.2NULL151.9-5.1647726778NULL123
DrakeMVC1280.40.40.015.0-8.2NULL151.4-6.8424498777NULL160
DelawareCAA14423.123.10.015.8-8.2NULL150.9-6.6957710194NULL156
South FloridaBIGEAST1190.00.00.0NULL-8.4NULL155.9-7.1102437754NULL166
South AlabamaSUNBELT1656.86.80.015.7-8.4NULL154.4-6.3441045254NULL149
IonaMAAC10923.423.40.015.8-8.5NULL156.3-7.5354344386NULL180
Jacksonville StateOVC2030.30.30.015.7-8.5NULL157.1-6.7732114505NULL159
DePaulBIGEAST1110.00.00.0NULL-8.6NULL159.0-7.0417817390NULL163
WagnerNEC2088.78.70.015.6-8.6NULL158.5-6.4112693581NULL151
VanderbiltSEC1250.00.00.0NULL-8.7NULL159.7-7.1222617282NULL167
Gardner-WebbBIGSOUTH17814.614.60.015.9-8.7NULL159.8-7.0768715496NULL165
Illinois-ChicagoHORIZON1840.20.20.015.5-8.8NULL162.3-6.6972272772NULL157
Penn StateBIG101240.00.00.0NULL-8.8NULL162.3-7.4880058101NULL177
Virginia TechACC1580.00.00.0NULL-8.8NULL162.4-6.4118096228NULL152
Wake ForestACC1320.00.00.0NULL-8.9NULL163.9-6.8488789479NULL161
San FranciscoWCC1270.10.10.016.0-8.9NULL164.6-7.5579427680NULL181
High PointBIGSOUTH2127.27.20.015.9-9.0NULL165.8-7.6867256809NULL182
Youngstown StateHORIZON1460.70.70.015.7-9.0NULL165.5-7.4810599467NULL176
HawaiiBIGWEST1798.78.70.015.9-9.1NULL167.5-7.2340338422NULL168
Florida InternationalSUNBELT2002.22.20.015.9-9.1NULL167.7-7.4513003848NULL173
CornellIVY1903.53.50.015.8-9.3NULL169.7-7.3225323749NULL172
Cal PolyBIGWEST15218.018.00.015.9-9.3NULL170.2-7.4798252726NULL175
North Carolina-AshevilleBIGSOUTH17318.718.70.016.0-9.3NULL171.8-8.1441252730NULL187
TulsaC-USA1994.54.50.016.0-9.5NULL173.1-7.2604073203NULL170
Washington StatePAC12920.80.80.015.9-9.5NULL174.4-8.3663342279NULL191
UtahPAC121340.10.10.014.0-9.6NULL175.7-7.4759028736NULL174
San DiegoWCC1890.00.00.0NULL-9.6NULL176.0-7.7063351388NULL183
Fresno StateMWC1380.00.00.0NULL-9.7NULL176.8-8.0182046020NULL185
HoustonC-USA2010.30.30.015.7-9.8NULL178.2-7.5206415495NULL179
Loyola (IL)HORIZON1560.30.30.016.0-9.8NULL179.6-8.4998361066NULL197
Kent StateMAC1532.92.90.015.9-9.9NULL180.5-7.8754056526NULL184
HartfordA-EAST2203.53.50.016.0-9.9NULL181.9-8.4691947259NULL195
Southern IllinoisMVC1510.20.20.016.0-9.9NULL181.3-8.4686271253NULL194
NJITGWC2750.00.00.0NULL-9.9NULL179.6-8.5286381339NULL199
South CarolinaSEC1710.00.00.0NULL-10.0NULL181.2-7.2753377546NULL171
Mount St. Mary'sNEC2141.71.70.016.0-10.2NULL185.6-8.2518944131NULL188
Long Island UniversityNEC18024.524.50.016.0-10.2NULL185.3-8.3784599528NULL192
Arkansas-Little RockSUNBELT2181.71.70.016.0-10.2NULL184.7-7.4915163084NULL178
PepperdineWCC1830.00.00.0NULL-10.3NULL186.0-8.1333706162NULL186
Western KentuckySUNBELT1613.73.70.016.0-10.6NULL190.3-8.6853461301NULL201
ColumbiaIVY1570.00.00.0NULL-10.7NULL191.7-9.1359148282NULL207
James MadisonCAA16213.113.10.016.0-10.7NULL192.9-9.4024040408NULL213
Texas TechBIG121920.00.00.0NULL-10.8NULL194.2-8.7603439521NULL204
Alabama-BirminghamC-USA1631.61.60.016.0-10.9NULL195.8-8.5282974099NULL198
California-IrvineBIGWEST1818.78.70.016.0-11.0NULL196.0-8.3571717389NULL189
LafayettePATRIOT2301.31.30.016.0-11.1NULL197.6-9.0192154947NULL206
Sam Houston StateSLAND2351.11.10.016.0-11.3NULL201.8-8.8013956802NULL205
RiderMAAC1964.34.30.016.0-11.4NULL202.2-9.1809007289NULL208
Coastal CarolinaBIGSOUTH22317.517.50.016.0-11.4NULL202.8-9.3427716705NULL211
Cal State NorthridgeBIGWEST2022.62.60.016.0-11.4NULL202.7-9.7164625328NULL216
Delaware StateMEAC2744.64.60.016.0-11.5NULL204.5-8.4898341209NULL196
MarshallC-USA1701.21.20.016.0-11.6NULL206.0-9.2796746563NULL209
Rhode IslandA-101590.00.00.0NULL-11.8NULL209.2-10.2060211799NULL228
Southeastern LouisianaSLAND2780.40.40.016.0-11.8NULL209.0-8.6308095737NULL200
Cleveland StateHORIZON2250.00.00.0NULL-11.8NULL208.2-9.9102358156NULL220
ArmyPATRIOT1763.33.30.015.9-11.9NULL210.8-10.2588070068NULL229
AuburnSEC1470.00.00.0NULL-11.9NULL210.9-9.7260286855NULL218
PortlandWCC2150.00.00.0NULL-11.9NULL209.9-10.0627386211NULL225
YaleIVY1980.20.20.0NULL-11.9NULL209.6-9.3665869096NULL212
South Carolina UpstateA-SUN20412.112.10.016.0-12.0NULL211.3-10.0392527681NULL224
California-DavisBIGWEST1888.58.50.016.0-12.0NULL213.3-9.7203854086NULL217
Cal State FullertonBIGWEST1827.47.40.016.0-12.1NULL213.2-9.4688499019NULL214
BrownIVY2190.00.00.0NULL-12.3NULL217.0-9.5095574517NULL215
StetsonA-SUN2494.64.60.016.0-12.4NULL219.4-10.4902996301NULL235
Morehead StateOVC2210.50.50.016.0-12.4NULL219.6-9.9281086376NULL221
IdahoWAC1640.80.80.016.0-12.5NULL221.0-10.8619177856NULL242
William & MaryCAA1876.46.40.016.0-12.5NULL220.7-10.6642782176NULL238
Southeast Missouri StateOVC2320.20.20.0NULL-12.6NULL221.2-10.4192100829NULL231
Southern MethodistC-USA2070.00.00.0NULL-12.7NULL224.0-9.7846721369NULL219
DrexelCAA1689.99.90.016.0-12.7NULL223.7-10.6142257945NULL237
DuquesneA-101860.00.00.0NULL-12.7NULL223.2-10.9191484480NULL244
Eastern MichiganMAC2840.00.00.0NULL-12.8NULL227.0-8.7123742473NULL202
Central Connecticut StateNEC2361.31.30.016.0-12.8NULL226.3-10.2773802115NULL230
Texas ChristianBIG122260.00.00.0NULL-12.8NULL225.7-9.9802258689NULL222
Mississippi StateSEC2060.00.00.0NULL-13.0NULL229.4-10.0206585877NULL223
North DakotaBIGSKY2612.22.20.016.0-13.1NULL232.3-10.5298983275NULL236
Morgan StateMEAC2409.89.80.016.0-13.2NULL234.0-11.2273716636NULL251
Appalachian StateSOUTHERN2730.40.40.016.0-13.2NULL233.5-11.8223692886NULL269
Ball StateMAC2380.10.10.0NULL-13.2NULL234.5-10.0799273513NULL226
JacksonvilleA-SUN2692.72.70.016.0-13.2NULL233.3-10.4622066970NULL232
Florida AtlanticSUNBELT2550.20.20.016.0-13.3NULL234.5-10.9617562441NULL246
McNeese StateSLAND2870.00.00.0NULL-13.3NULL235.1-9.2847420860NULL210
Sacramento StateBIGSKY2581.11.10.016.0-13.4NULL237.4-10.1520686056NULL227
Holy CrossPATRIOT2340.20.20.0NULL-13.4NULL236.7-11.2940359480NULL252
LipscombA-SUN2940.30.30.0NULL-13.4NULL237.4-10.8809807499NULL243
CampbellBIGSOUTH2772.22.20.016.0-13.4NULL238.4-11.3240125841NULL253
Loyola MarymountWCC1970.00.00.0NULL-13.5NULL239.0-10.7707873402NULL240
California-Santa BarbaraBIGWEST2171.21.20.016.0-13.5NULL239.4-11.1725279244NULL250
ManhattanMAAC2100.80.80.016.0-13.5NULL239.2-11.0764487590NULL247
WinthropBIGSOUTH2700.70.70.016.0-13.5NULL240.2-11.0907847328NULL249
St. Francis (NY)NEC2271.11.10.016.0-13.6NULL241.2-11.6533070855NULL262
Tennessee TechOVC2620.00.00.0NULL-13.7NULL243.0-12.1685548801NULL277
North Carolina A&TMEAC2725.25.20.016.0-13.7NULL243.6-10.9511829818NULL245
North FloridaA-SUN2453.93.90.016.0-13.7NULL244.1-11.6222864511NULL261
BuffaloMAC1931.01.00.016.0-13.7NULL244.6-10.7219283881NULL239
Southern Illinois-EdwardsvilleOVC2880.00.00.0NULL-13.7NULL243.9-11.7795974099NULL268
Western CarolinaSOUTHERN2511.11.10.016.0-13.7NULL243.1-12.0895698355NULL274
Bowling Green StateMAC2090.40.40.0NULL-13.8NULL245.7-10.8411737821NULL241
QuinnipiacNEC2222.92.90.016.0-13.8NULL245.8-10.4763628114NULL233
AmericanPATRIOT2371.01.00.016.0-13.9NULL247.4-11.6026710642NULL260
IPFWSUMMIT2460.60.60.016.0-13.9NULL248.0-12.0851952537NULL273
Missouri StateMVC1910.00.00.0NULL-14.0NULL249.5-12.1989631414NULL278
Utah ValleyGWC2890.00.00.0NULL-14.0NULL249.9-11.7364060945NULL265
Virginia Military InstituteBIGSOUTH2424.14.10.016.0-14.2NULL254.4-11.6867116199NULL263
FordhamA-102330.00.00.0NULL-14.2NULL254.9-12.0058980612NULL272
Houston BaptistGWC3180.00.00.0NULL-14.3NULL256.6-11.4939086540NULL257
ColgatePATRIOT2520.40.40.0NULL-14.4NULL258.1-12.5523544459NULL288
San Jose StateWAC2570.10.10.016.0-14.4NULL256.6-11.7418620361NULL266
Central MichiganMAC2290.10.10.0NULL-14.5NULL257.8-11.3392799509NULL254
Louisiana-LafayetteSUNBELT2051.71.70.016.0-14.5NULL259.2-12.3389192336NULL282
Texas-Pan AmericanGWC3130.00.00.0NULL-14.6NULL260.4-12.3564687860NULL283
North TexasSUNBELT2110.50.50.0NULL-14.6NULL261.4-12.4912056499NULL286
Montana StateBIGSKY2661.31.30.016.0-14.7NULL261.5-11.9014892536NULL270
MaineA-EAST2471.11.10.0NULL-14.7NULL264.6-12.7421451026NULL293
South DakotaSUMMIT2310.50.50.016.0-14.7NULL263.1-12.5862660179NULL289
WoffordSOUTHERN2630.50.50.016.0-14.7NULL262.8-12.5143619417NULL287
Northern ArizonaBIGSKY2710.50.50.0NULL-14.8NULL263.9-11.3712299150NULL255
Northern ColoradoBIGSKY2651.01.00.0NULL-14.9NULL266.2-12.2931077200NULL280
Miami (OH)MAC2540.00.00.0NULL-14.9NULL266.4-11.3814913903NULL256
Jackson StateSWAC3205.85.80.016.0-15.0NULL268.7-12.2865543588NULL279
Northern KentuckyA-SUN2761.51.50.0NULL-15.0NULL268.8-11.7222227633NULL264
HamptonMEAC2902.62.60.016.0-15.1NULL268.0-11.9747245175NULL271
Nicholls StateSLAND2430.70.70.016.0-15.1NULL269.5-12.3956210816NULL284
Sacred HeartNEC2600.20.20.0NULL-15.2NULL271.4-11.7537769217NULL267
SamfordSOUTHERN2830.50.50.0NULL-15.3NULL272.2-12.1181307160NULL275
Portland StateBIGSKY2640.00.00.0NULL-15.3NULL272.5-13.3253791559NULL301
MonmouthNEC2850.00.00.0NULL-15.4NULL273.0-12.9915966111NULL295
RadfordBIGSOUTH2562.22.20.016.0-15.4NULL274.8-13.1934227390NULL298
Georgia SouthernSOUTHERN2950.10.10.0NULL-15.4NULL273.7-12.6670862856NULL291
Bethune-CookmanMEAC2803.23.20.0NULL-15.5NULL274.9-12.3105279738NULL281
Southern UtahBIGSKY2990.50.50.0NULL-15.5NULL276.9-11.5812818252NULL259
Central ArkansasSLAND2930.10.10.0NULL-15.6NULL277.4-12.6989029129NULL292
Alabama A&MSWAC3262.82.80.0NULL-16.0NULL282.2-13.1051453318NULL297
ChattanoogaSOUTHERN2820.50.50.0NULL-16.1NULL283.6-12.9338848420NULL294
SeattleWAC2160.20.20.0NULL-16.1NULL283.0-13.3638234998NULL303
Chicago StateGWC3140.00.00.0NULL-16.2NULL284.8-13.2406765344NULL300
Tennessee-MartinOVC3080.00.00.0NULL-16.2NULL286.2-13.8583817194NULL304
New HampshireA-EAST2390.50.50.0NULL-16.2NULL285.8-14.4298675765NULL308
TroySUNBELT2530.40.40.0NULL-16.4NULL286.7-13.2013601238NULL299
DartmouthIVY2910.00.00.0NULL-16.5NULL287.6-12.4605763116NULL285
Alabama StateSWAC3198.68.60.016.0-16.7NULL290.3-14.0590853237NULL305
PennsylvaniaIVY2280.00.00.0NULL-16.7NULL290.3-13.0379208325NULL296
Prairie ViewSWAC3252.22.20.0NULL-16.8NULL291.3-13.3464176656NULL302
East Tennessee StateA-SUN3020.30.30.0NULL-17.1NULL294.2-14.1745008617NULL306
Texas-San AntonioWAC2480.10.10.0NULL-17.3NULL296.8-14.2059568383NULL307
Saint Peter'sMAAC2680.10.10.0NULL-17.5NULL299.1-14.8239607883NULL311
Texas StateWAC2440.10.10.0NULL-17.7NULL300.5-14.6698238891NULL310
Eastern IllinoisOVC2810.00.00.0NULL-17.7NULL300.9-15.2210383270NULL316
HowardMEAC3041.01.00.0NULL-17.7NULL300.8-15.5914388012NULL319
Eastern WashingtonBIGSKY2860.10.10.0NULL-17.8NULL301.7-14.8724643504NULL312
MaristMAAC2410.40.40.0NULL-17.8NULL301.7-15.6143093157NULL321
Louisiana-MonroeSUNBELT3000.00.00.0NULL-17.9NULL302.3-14.5150012939NULL309
MilwaukeeHORIZON2670.00.00.0NULL-17.9NULL302.6-16.1551948503NULL328
Alcorn StateSWAC3224.24.20.0NULL-18.1NULL304.4-14.9245805411NULL313
North Carolina-GreensboroSOUTHERN2590.30.30.0NULL-18.1NULL304.9-15.3163059944NULL317
Austin PeayOVC2920.00.00.0NULL-18.2NULL306.0-16.9804138718NULL336
CitadelSOUTHERN3150.00.00.0NULL-18.3NULL306.2-15.6617555531NULL323
IUPUISUMMIT3010.10.10.0NULL-18.4NULL307.9-16.3179446973NULL330
Missouri-Kansas CitySUMMIT3030.20.20.0NULL-18.4NULL307.7-15.5979581262NULL320
LibertyBIGSOUTH2980.10.10.0NULL-18.5NULL308.2-16.0296794466NULL327
Northern IllinoisMAC2960.00.00.0NULL-18.6NULL308.6-15.0021693104NULL314
Maryland-Baltimore CountyA-EAST3110.10.10.0NULL-18.8NULL310.8-16.2085208191NULL329
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC3230.00.00.0NULL-19.0NULL312.7-15.9967826467NULL326
Florida A&MMEAC3160.10.10.0NULL-19.2NULL313.9-15.6293867678NULL322
PresbyterianBIGSOUTH3210.00.00.0NULL-19.4NULL316.2-16.5083735205NULL331
NavyPATRIOT3120.00.00.0NULL-19.5NULL316.0-16.6950778291NULL332
RiceC-USA3090.00.00.0NULL-19.6NULL317.1-15.0030715403NULL315
SienaMAAC2790.10.10.0NULL-19.8NULL318.8-17.5180300113NULL341
Idaho StateBIGSKY3050.00.00.0NULL-19.9NULL318.5-16.7949761023NULL333
Coppin StateMEAC3100.60.60.0NULL-20.0NULL318.9-16.9378055069NULL335
FurmanSOUTHERN3170.00.00.0NULL-20.3NULL321.3-17.1323043307NULL337
South Carolina StateMEAC3300.00.00.0NULL-20.4NULL322.6-15.5295106964NULL318
LongwoodBIGSOUTH3240.00.00.0NULL-20.5NULL323.0-17.2700212662NULL339
Saint Francis (PA)NEC3070.00.00.0NULL-21.0NULL324.6-18.8160863440NULL343
Maryland-Eastern ShoreMEAC3270.00.00.0NULL-21.1NULL325.1-17.1789711350NULL338
HofstraCAA2970.40.40.0NULL-21.1NULL324.8-18.2271712925NULL342
LamarSLAND3280.00.00.0NULL-21.3NULL326.3-17.4062864186NULL340
Kennesaw StateA-SUN3060.00.00.0NULL-21.7NULL327.4-19.3438061096NULL345
BinghamtonA-EAST3290.00.00.0NULL-22.7NULL329.7-19.4995323296NULL346
GramblingSWAC3310.00.00.0NULL-25.2NULL331.0-20.3960597477NULL347

Next Time

This post is already getting long, so I’ll leave some of the analysis to you this time. Next time, I’ll take a look at some discrepancies between my system, Bracketology, and predictive rankings. We’re just days away from the best month of the year…

Category: College Basketball, descriptive, March Madness, simulation, team evaluation | Tags: , , Comment »


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