SoCon, MAAC, and Sun Belt Conference Tournament Predictions – 2013

If you missed it, here are the previous conferences covered: (1) Horizon and Big South, (2) A-Sun, Northeast, Patriot, OVC, and WCC, and (3) Missouri Valley.

The Southern Conference, once again, has been dominated by Davidson. The Wildcats haven’t been quite good enough to garner any at-large consideration, but the way they’ve run through the SoCon it shouldn’t matter. They have a 2 in 3 chance to head back to the NCAA Tournament. Should somebody stop them, it will have to be the College of Charleston, and they have a 20% chance to do so. Elon at 8% is the only other team with more than a prayer.

SdTeamQtrsSemisFinalsChamp
1Davidson92.684.867.2
3College of Charleston88.359.120.2
2Elon74.733.58.2
4Appalachian State52.96.61.5
10North Carolina-Greensboro57.028.63.40.8
6Western Carolina75.323.04.40.7
7Chattanooga43.018.52.20.6
5Samford76.610.42.40.3
8Wofford64.15.22.10.3
9Georgia Southern35.92.20.90.1
11Citadel24.72.30.60.1
12Furman23.41.30.00.0

Finally, we have a conference tournament with a little bit of intrigue in the MAAC. Iona, the 4-seed, is the favorite but has just a 27% chance to win the title. Five other teams have a better than 7% chance including the 7-seed, Fairfield, who has a 12% chance. I’m going to guess they are the most likely conference 7-seed to win their respective tournament.

SdTeamQtrsSemisFinalsChamp
4Iona56.139.126.7
1Niagara78.931.018.6
3Loyola (MD)68.138.816.5
5Canisius43.926.614.3
7Fairfield79.047.426.512.1
2Rider46.723.27.1
6Manhattan31.910.33.5
8Marist67.617.13.11.0
10Saint Peter's21.05.91.20.1
9Siena32.44.00.20.1

The intrigue was short lived as we head to the Sun Belt. Middle Tennessee is again the class of the league. This year, they should have a very good shot at an at-large bid should they need it. There’s about a 40% chance of that happening, and most of that belongs to the 2-seed Arkansas State (18%).

SdTeamQtrsSemisFinalsChamp
1Middle Tennessee87.978.361.8
2Arkansas State83.250.517.8
6Western Kentucky88.748.523.17.0
3South Alabama50.122.25.2
4Florida International55.09.03.1
5Arkansas-Little Rock45.06.92.3
8Louisiana-Lafayette50.87.53.51.5
9North Texas49.24.62.30.6
7Florida Atlantic51.79.02.20.4
10Troy48.37.82.00.3
11Louisiana-Monroe11.31.40.00.0

Next Up: The Colonial, Summit, and America East begin their tournaments on Saturday.

Category: College Basketball, Conference Tournament predictions, predictive, simulation, team evaluation Comment »


Leave a Reply



Back to top