If you missed it, here are the previous conferences covered: (1) Horizon and Big South, (2) A-Sun, Northeast, Patriot, OVC, and WCC, and (3) Missouri Valley.
The Southern Conference, once again, has been dominated by Davidson. The Wildcats haven’t been quite good enough to garner any at-large consideration, but the way they’ve run through the SoCon it shouldn’t matter. They have a 2 in 3 chance to head back to the NCAA Tournament. Should somebody stop them, it will have to be the College of Charleston, and they have a 20% chance to do so. Elon at 8% is the only other team with more than a prayer.
Sd | Team | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Davidson | 92.6 | 84.8 | 67.2 | |
3 | College of Charleston | 88.3 | 59.1 | 20.2 | |
2 | Elon | 74.7 | 33.5 | 8.2 | |
4 | Appalachian State | 52.9 | 6.6 | 1.5 | |
10 | North Carolina-Greensboro | 57.0 | 28.6 | 3.4 | 0.8 |
6 | Western Carolina | 75.3 | 23.0 | 4.4 | 0.7 |
7 | Chattanooga | 43.0 | 18.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
5 | Samford | 76.6 | 10.4 | 2.4 | 0.3 |
8 | Wofford | 64.1 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
9 | Georgia Southern | 35.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
11 | Citadel | 24.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
12 | Furman | 23.4 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Finally, we have a conference tournament with a little bit of intrigue in the MAAC. Iona, the 4-seed, is the favorite but has just a 27% chance to win the title. Five other teams have a better than 7% chance including the 7-seed, Fairfield, who has a 12% chance. I’m going to guess they are the most likely conference 7-seed to win their respective tournament.
Sd | Team | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | Iona | 56.1 | 39.1 | 26.7 | |
1 | Niagara | 78.9 | 31.0 | 18.6 | |
3 | Loyola (MD) | 68.1 | 38.8 | 16.5 | |
5 | Canisius | 43.9 | 26.6 | 14.3 | |
7 | Fairfield | 79.0 | 47.4 | 26.5 | 12.1 |
2 | Rider | 46.7 | 23.2 | 7.1 | |
6 | Manhattan | 31.9 | 10.3 | 3.5 | |
8 | Marist | 67.6 | 17.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
10 | Saint Peter's | 21.0 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
9 | Siena | 32.4 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
The intrigue was short lived as we head to the Sun Belt. Middle Tennessee is again the class of the league. This year, they should have a very good shot at an at-large bid should they need it. There’s about a 40% chance of that happening, and most of that belongs to the 2-seed Arkansas State (18%).
Sd | Team | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Middle Tennessee | 87.9 | 78.3 | 61.8 | |
2 | Arkansas State | 83.2 | 50.5 | 17.8 | |
6 | Western Kentucky | 88.7 | 48.5 | 23.1 | 7.0 |
3 | South Alabama | 50.1 | 22.2 | 5.2 | |
4 | Florida International | 55.0 | 9.0 | 3.1 | |
5 | Arkansas-Little Rock | 45.0 | 6.9 | 2.3 | |
8 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 50.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
9 | North Texas | 49.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
7 | Florida Atlantic | 51.7 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
10 | Troy | 48.3 | 7.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
11 | Louisiana-Monroe | 11.3 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Next Up: The Colonial, Summit, and America East begin their tournaments on Saturday.
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