Click here to check out all the conference tournament predictions.
It’s a weak SEC, but they do have one Final Four contender in Florida. That combination makes the Gators overwhelming favorites. Behind them are bubble teams galore, with Kentucky as the most likely to unseat Florida, but they are without star Nerlens Noel.
| Sd | Team | 2nd Rd | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida | 96.0 | 86.3 | 71.9 | ||
| 2 | Kentucky | 73.2 | 42.4 | 10.7 | ||
| 6 | Missouri | 86.1 | 48.6 | 25.7 | 6.3 | |
| 3 | Mississippi | 48.7 | 21.9 | 4.9 | ||
| 5 | Tennessee | 87.5 | 54.0 | 8.2 | 3.1 | |
| 7 | Arkansas | 70.9 | 22.3 | 8.8 | 1.4 | |
| 4 | Alabama | 43.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | ||
| 8 | Georgia | 43.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | |
| 11 | Texas A&M | 63.6 | 10.4 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 10 | Vanderbilt | 29.1 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | |
| 9 | Louisiana State | 56.1 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| 12 | South Carolina | 64.1 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 13 | Mississippi State | 35.9 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 14 | Auburn | 36.4 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
As always, Kansas is the favorite, though the field is a better bet. Kansas State tied the Jayhawks for the regular season title but it’s the 3-seed Oklahoma State that has the best chance to knock off Kansas.
| Sd | Team | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas | 89.5 | 65.4 | 44.3 | |
| 3 | Oklahoma State | 59.9 | 40.8 | 19.4 | |
| 2 | Kansas State | 72.9 | 31.1 | 11.2 | |
| 6 | Baylor | 40.1 | 21.8 | 9.0 | |
| 5 | Iowa State | 57.1 | 19.2 | 8.9 | |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 42.9 | 12.2 | 5.1 | |
| 7 | Texas | 85.8 | 26.1 | 6.2 | 1.4 |
| 8 | West Virginia | 79.7 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| 9 | Texas Tech | 20.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Texas Christian | 14.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
In my update on potential Bid Stealers, the top two teams that could turn a 1-bid league into a 2-bid league were Middle Tennessee and Memphis. Well, Middle Tennessee already lost in the Sun Belt tournament, and while other bracketologists aren’t quite as high on their at-large chances as my system is, they do all agree that Memphis is a tournament lock regardless. The worse news for bubble teams is that the rest of the conference–led by 2-seed Southern Miss–provides enough competition to make it more likely than not that someone besides the Tigers wins the C-USA tournament.
| Sd | Team | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memphis | 81.7 | 64.9 | 45.3 | |
| 2 | Southern Mississippi | 77.7 | 53.1 | 26.4 | |
| 3 | Texas-El Paso | 76.6 | 31.6 | 10.6 | |
| 5 | Tulsa | 55.7 | 16.2 | 6.0 | |
| 4 | East Carolina | 44.3 | 10.2 | 3.7 | |
| 7 | Alabama-Birmingham | 64.5 | 16.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Tulane | 57.2 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| 6 | Houston | 87.0 | 22.7 | 5.6 | 1.0 |
| 9 | Marshall | 42.8 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 0.8 |
| 10 | Southern Methodist | 35.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 11 | Rice | 13.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The Pac-12 isn’t as bad as it has been, but it’s still not great. Arizona, despite their #4 seed, is the clear favorite. But the rest of top 5 plus 8-seed Stanford all have reasonable shots to take the auto bid.
| Sd | Team | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arizona | 74.2 | 54.2 | 41.4 | |
| 3 | Oregon | 70.9 | 44.1 | 18.8 | |
| 2 | California | 70.5 | 33.6 | 11.3 | |
| 1 | UCLA | 55.3 | 19.5 | 10.2 | |
| 5 | Colorado | 74.0 | 21.6 | 11.2 | 6.3 |
| 8 | Stanford | 60.3 | 30.9 | 10.4 | 5.7 |
| 6 | Washington | 53.8 | 15.7 | 7.5 | 2.0 |
| 11 | Washington State | 46.2 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.4 |
| 7 | Southern California | 64.1 | 22.4 | 7.6 | 1.3 |
| 9 | Arizona State | 39.7 | 13.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 12 | Oregon State | 26.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 10 | Utah | 35.9 | 7.1 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
A conference has to be pretty bad for the 220th-best team to be an 80% favorite. And, well, the SWAC is that bad. The only other team that could compete with Southern is Texas Southern and they are ineligible for the conference tourney. Of note is that even in a group of terrible teams, one teams stands out from the pack. Grambling is so bad this year that they are 96% likely to lose to the 6-seed and 339th-ranked (out of 347) team in the country, Alabama A&M. That’s impressive ineptitude.
| Sd | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern | 89.1 | 80.0 | |
| 2 | Jackson State | 56.3 | 32.5 | 6.8 |
| 6 | Alabama A&M | 96.0 | 10.8 | 4.2 |
| 3 | Alcorn State | 50.8 | 24.8 | 3.8 |
| 5 | Alabama State | 43.7 | 23.3 | 2.8 |
| 4 | Prairie View | 49.2 | 19.4 | 2.4 |
| 7 | Grambling | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
The Southland tournament features one of the best low-major teams in Stephen F. Austin. They have a 62% chance to join the big dance, but Northwestern State and Oral Roberts could both stand in the Lumberjacks way.
| Sd | Team | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen F. Austin | 89.6 | 62.0 | ||
| 2 | Northwestern State | 56.9 | 21.5 | ||
| 3 | Oral Roberts | 81.3 | 38.5 | 13.8 | |
| 5 | Nicholls State | 64.4 | 41.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 |
| 4 | Southeastern Louisiana | 43.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | |
| 6 | Sam Houston State | 66.5 | 14.8 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
| 8 | McNeese State | 35.6 | 15.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Central Arkansas | 33.5 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Next up: the final installment including the ACC, Big Ten, Atlantic 10, Big West, Great West, and Big Sky.