Tag: NCAA Tournament


The Achievement S-Curve: 1/30/2012

January 30th, 2012 — 11:04pm

Those following along (those that have not, start here, Does cymbalta help opiate withdrawal, and here) know that the goal of the Achievement S-Curve is to reward teams for what they have accomplished on the court. Wins and losses count. Strength of schedule counts. Scoring margin, the eye test, true team strength…they don’t count.

There are good arguments against simply selecting and seeding teams based on who is the most deserving as opposed to just the best teams. For one, some people simply prefer to select the best teams and see them go at it in the tournament. Secondly, while seeding teams based on achievement rewards the top teams with good seeds and likely easier paths in the tournament, you may sometimes inadvertently hurt some of these teams who draw teams that underachieved during the season. Take Washington as an example from last season–they were a top 10 team by some rankings of the best teams but underachieved and drew a 7-seed. A team that earned a 2-seed would actually be better off as a 3-seed drawing an easier 6-seed as opposed to being slotted across from the Huskies.

So, this week, I offer two alternative S-Curve systems: Continue reading »

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The Achievement S-Curve: 1/23/2012

January 23rd, 2012 — 11:04pm

I will try to update this every week, though I won’t provide nearly as much commentary. For an introduction and explanation, try these Does cymbalta help opiate withdrawal posts.

This week, I’ll get right to it with the chart. As always, the full S-Curve with additional information can be found here.

This week, I’ll tie in some comments about this week’s ASC as examples for what are the main differences between my ratings and ESPN’s Bracketology by Joe Lunardi (and other similar “bracketology” predictions). Continue reading »

Comment » | Metformin weight loss pcos success stories, descriptive, EMPTY, team evaluation

The Achievement S-Curve: 1/16/2012

January 16th, 2012 — 5:26pm

Last year, I introduced the Achievement S-Curve. The idea behind it was that teams should be rewarded for their season based on their wins and losses and the strength of their schedule. This is in opposition to the other camp of evaluating and seeding teams for the tournament, where teams are judged based on who is the “best” regardless of record. I discuss this dichotomy in further detail in this post from last year.

Methodology

The result was my Achievement S-Curve, and I’m bringing it back for a second go-round this year. I Does cymbalta help opiate withdrawal last year, but I’ll give a quick summary here: Continue reading »

Comment » | Metformin weight loss pcos success stories, descriptive, EMPTY, team evaluation

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March 11th, 2011 — 12:19am

In my last post, I discussed evaluating teams based on what they accomplished (“most deserving”) versus what they are capable of (“best”). I argued that in selecting teams for the NCAA Tournament, only a team’s wins and losses–not their margin of victory, their statistics, or their “look”–should be considered against their schedule strength in order to determine which teams deserve the reward.

Today, I put my plan into action. I introduce to you the “Achievement S-Curve”. There is no margin of victory, no rebounding margin, no NBA prospects, and certainly no “eye test” where the ASC lives. The ASC doesn’t care how you won or lost, just if you won or lost. This is based solely on each team’s achievements to-date, not their future projections.

First, a disclaimer. I am NOT projecting what the NCAA Tournament field will look like. There are plenty of sites that do that already and do it well (although, when you get spotted 31 of 68 teams, it’s not all that difficult). What I am concerned with here is what the field SHOULD look like…what the committee should look at in determining who is selected and how they are seeded. Continue reading »

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Determining the “Most Deserving”

February 18th, 2011 — 8:17pm

With football season over, I will turn my focus to one of my favorite times of the year: March Madness. I’ll continue to post some football research during the off-season, but the next month or so will be heavy on college hoops.

I had been planning on continuing on the theme of my last couple posts, the difference between “predictive” and “descriptive” measurements. I wanted my first college basketball post to discuss the difference between the “best team” and “teams that have played the best”. Earlier today, John Gasaway at Basketball Prospectus wrote an article advocating the use of scoring margin in determining inclusion and placement in the NCAA Tournament, providing an opportunity for me to debate my point of view. Continue reading »

6 comments » | Metformin weight loss pcos success stories, descriptive, EMPTY, predictive

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